Macro
LatAmBrent crude tumbled ~6.5% to about US$90/bbl as the Red Sea tanker-strike risk premium unwound, reversing last week’s spike above US$100 — relief for import-dependent Central America and the Caribbean but trimming the fiscal windfall for exporters Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Argentina. (Rio Times)
BrazilTuesday’s IPCA-15 mid-month CPI (consensus 0.4%) is the week’s most tradeable release; a soft print would reinforce the case for extending the Copom’s easing cycle from the 14.25% Selic, while Friday’s monthly GDP proxy gives the first hard read on activity under tight financial conditions. (Rio Times)
MexicoThursday’s Q2 GDP is seen rebounding to +0.5% q/q after a ‑0.6% contraction, a number that will steer Banxico cut expectations from the 6.50% policy rate; June inflation held near a five-year low of ~3.4%, keeping the bank cautious. Monday brings June trade figures. (Rio Times) (Capital Economics)
ColombiaBanRep concludes Friday with the policy rate at 12% after a surprise June hike, remaining the region’s hawkish outlier; the peso firmed to roughly 3,216–3,256/USD but sits ~15% below its 52-week high on external-financing and oil-export sensitivity. (Rio Times) (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmThe 1 July renewal completed firmly buyer-favourable: property-cat XoL rates down 15–20% as Bermuda, London and MGA capacity crowds in, ceding commissions rise, and parametric/structured products move mainstream. (Artemis) (Insurance Business)
ColombiaBancolombia’s housing-loan book jumped 13% as its Cibest holding group eyes the rental market, a sign of resilient credit demand even with BanRep’s policy rate at 12%. (Rio Times)
LatAmAM Best reports cat bonds now offer more favourable economics than traditional reinsurance in some layers, describing ILS as having grown “from niche to established” and a core component of programmes rather than an opportunistic tool. (Artemis)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric pool (~US$1.57bn) stays untriggered YTD and anchors a deepening disaster-risk-financing market that cat-bond investors watch as El Niño dampens Atlantic activity. (Artemis)
Political
PeruKeiko Fujimori is inaugurated tomorrow, 28 July (Independence Day), as the country’s first woman president, with her cabinet expected to be sworn in the same day; markets will watch the Interior and Energy & Mines appointments. (Rio Times)
ColombiaCongress is fighting over the venue for the 7 August presidential handover to conservative president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, after voting to move it to Cauca; his incoming government is signalling a September tax plan (corporate-rate cut, scrapped bank levy) while the outgoing wealth-tax reform is set to die post-handover. (Rio Times) (Rio Times)
ArgentinaArgentina’s Monotributo recategorisation deadline falls 5 August after brackets rose ~16.8%; the Merval slipped ~1.1% and the blue-chip dollar sits near 1,515 as investors position ahead of the region’s data-heavy week. (Rio Times)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the new Insurance Contract Law (Law 15.040) and reinsurance/retrocession reforms (consultation 14/2025), advancing toward EIOPA equivalence — a live watch item for cedants on claims-control clauses. (Skadden)
MexicoCNSF, an IAIS member, runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework; previously flagged tax reforms remain the live 2026 pressure on insurer capital, with no new 24h regulatory action. (Skadden)
LatAmSkadden’s prudential-solvency survey documents steady convergence toward Solvency II-style risk-based capital across the region, while IFRS 17 adoption diverges (Brazil and Mexico live; Argentina and Chile delayed); IAIS NatCat protection-gap themes remain the standing regulatory backdrop. (Skadden)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmENSO forecasts point to a strengthening El Niño, with NOAA CPC and IRI plume runs assigning very high probabilities to El Niño conditions persisting through late 2026 and forecasters flagging risk of a record-strong “super” event peaking around the turn of the year. (NOAA CPC) (Crisis24)
AndesThe pattern pairs intense coastal flooding and landslide risk on the Pacific coast of Peru and Ecuador against drought across the Central American Dry Corridor, the northern Andes, Venezuela and the Brazilian Amazon, with agricultural stress building in coffee, corn, soy and sugar. (i4sea) (WRI)
LatAmFAO and WFP have launched a first-ever joint US$202m appeal, warning El Niño could push 36 million people into hunger across 22 countries; the Central American Dry Corridor is a focus, echoing the 2015–16 super event. (Tech Times) (Direct Relief)
CaribbeanEl Niño’s tendency to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity underpins below-average storm-count expectations that cat-bond and parametric investors are tracking; CCRIF’s ~US$1.57bn pool remains untriggered YTD. (Artemis)
VenezuelaNo major new nat cat event in LAC in the past 24 hours; the 24 June Veroes (Yaracuy) earthquakes remain the standing event, with confirmed deaths now above 5,500 and economic-loss estimates topping US$10bn against minimal insured cover. (Wikipedia)
Coming Up
28 JulPeruKeiko Fujimori inaugurated president on Independence Day, the country’s first woman head of state, with cabinet sworn in the same day.
28 JulChileBCCh rate decision, expected to hold at 4.5% with the statement tone the key market signal.
28 JulBrazilIBGE releases IPCA-15 mid-month inflation (consensus 0.4%), the last read before the 4–5 Aug Copom.
30 JulMexicoINEGI Q2 GDP, seen rebounding to +0.5% q/q after a ‑0.6% contraction.
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision, expected to hold at 12% as the region’s hawkish outlier.
On the Radar
LatAmA strengthening super El Niño into late 2026 tests parametric triggers and cat-bond attachment assumptions at the very moment property-cat pricing is falling 15–20% — a widening gap between softening rates and rising physical risk.
LatAmMonetary-policy divergence is the week’s theme: with the Fed on hold, Chile and Colombia’s tone will steer Andean carry trades while Mexican and Brazilian GDP test whether the region can keep cutting without a growth shock.
BrazilThe US 25% tariff in effect since 22 July remains a slow-burn risk into the 4 October election cycle; watch for retaliation signals and sector-level export pain.