Top line: A magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck Chocó on Colombia’s Pacific coast at 7:34 a.m. on 10 August — the country’s largest quake in a decade — killing at least 164 people, damaging 1,500+ homes and reducing buildings to rubble in Pereira and Cali. Insurers are bracing for widespread property and infrastructure claims, though insured losses remain undetermined given low penetration. Markets shrugged: Bogotá’s COLCAP rose 0.94% on reconstruction-linked buying. A strengthening super El Niño stays the region’s dominant physical risk into Q4.
Macro
BrazilJuly IPCA cooled sharply, rising just 0.03% on the month and pulling annual inflation down to 4.4%, days after Copom cut the Selic 25bp to 14.00% on 5 August (a fourth straight cut); the real trades near 5.11/USD. (Rio Times, Reuters/Trading Economics)
ColombiaJuly inflation eased to 6.03% y/y, continuing its descent from post-pandemic double digits, but Colombia stays the region’s hawkish outlier with BanRep at 12.00%. (Rio Times)
Mexicothe IPC fell 0.75% on 11 August, the region’s weakest performer, on caution ahead of June industrial-production data; Banxico held at 6.50% on 6 August in its first unanimous vote, signalling the easing cycle is done. (Rio Times, Central Banking)
Argentinathe Merval led the region +1.14% with the peso steady near 1,498/USD, even as growth slows and the currency stays under pressure into the October midterms. (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
Colombiathe M7.4 quake “raises the prospect of widespread property and infrastructure claims,” but no reliable economic or insured-loss estimate is yet available and the country’s low penetration means much of the damage is uninsured. (Insurance Business, Insurance Journal)
LatAmthe region enters H2 2026 with reinsurance capacity that continues to favour buyers, with discounts on flat renewals of 5–30% depending on line of business. (Insurance Business)
LatAmthe protection gap remains stark: AM Best puts 2024 insured nat cat losses at just US$1.5bn of US$11.6bn total, and MAPFRE Economics (at COP30) sizes the region’s climate-disaster protection gap at 81%; demand keeps rising despite sub-5% penetration. (Insurance Business — AM Best)
Political
ColombiaPresident Abelardo de la Espriella has hardened his security posture in his first week after a car bomb destroyed a Pan-American Highway toll plaza in Cauca (8 Aug) and explosive drones hit a town hall in Rioblanco, Tolima (9 Aug), declaring dialogue with armed groups “exhausted” — all while managing the quake response. (Rio Times)
Colombiathe inherited 2027 budget (COP 575.6tn, ~27% of GDP) sits in Congress with a COP 30.2tn (~US$9.6bn) financing hole flagged by the Comptroller, making the new government’s pledged wealth-tax repeal a promise rather than a plan. (Rio Times)
Peruthe Fujimori government has opened with 60% approval against 24% disapproval, its finance team holding the 2026 growth forecast at 3.2%, reinforcing the region’s anti-incumbent rightward turn. (Rio Times)
Brazilthe polarised 4 October Lula-vs-Flávio race stays framed by the 25% US tariff in force since 22 July. (Rio Times)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the Insurance Act (Law 15.040), with Resolution 494/2026 clarifying reinsurer rules and the Letras de Risco de Seguro (LRS) regime live as a domestic ILS channel toward EIOPA-style equivalence. (Artemis)
MexicoCNSF (IAIS member) runs the Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime, with the 2026 tax reform the live capital pressure behind Mexico’s status as Fitch’s lone ‘deteriorating’ 2026 insurance market. (Skadden)
LatAmIFRS 17 adoption stays uneven — Brazil and Mexico have implemented, Argentina and Chile have delayed, and Peru is expected to follow soon — as the region converges on Solvency II-style capital regimes. (Skadden)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
Colombiathe M7.4 Chocó earthquake (10 Aug, 7:34 a.m.) is the region’s marquee nat cat: at least 164 dead, 1,500+ homes damaged, buildings collapsed in Pereira and Cali and a historic cathedral tower cracked in Manizales — the largest Colombian quake in a decade, with insured losses still undetermined. (CNN, Time)
LatAmENSO sits at El Niño Advisory (upgraded from Watch on 11 Jun); NOAA/SPEAR give high confidence the event keeps intensifying through the fall, likely peaking October–January, with a 96–98% chance it persists through winter 2026–27 and roughly a 63% chance of a very strong “super” peak. (NOAA CPC, GFDL)
Andescoastal Peru and Ecuador face the classic El Niño flooding/landslide risk (some zones seen taking up to 10× normal rainfall), while the Central American Dry Corridor, the Colombian/Venezuelan Caribbean and the altiplano face drought; corn, soy, coffee and sugar are all under stress. (Anticipation Hub, i4sea)
CaribbeanEl Niño shear keeps the Atlantic season below-normal (NOAA: 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes) even as the East Pacific runs above-average (15–22 named storms); CCRIF’s parametric pool sits at US$1.57bn (up 9%) and untriggered YTD, while Puerto Rico has imposed San Juan water rationing amid drought. (NOAA, Artemis)
LatAmthe health tail of the event is building: El Niño puts 756 Latin American hospitals at risk with regional dengue cases topping 624,000. (Rio Times)
Coming Up
12 AugLatAmUS July CPI, the main external swing factor for regional FX this week.
13 AugArgentinaINDEC releases July CPI, the next read on the disinflation path into the October midterms.
13 AugPeruBCRP rate decision, with consensus for an eleventh straight hold at 4.25%.
13 AugLatAmNOAA CPC monthly ENSO update (second Thursday), the next official read on super-El-Niño strength.
20 AugMexicoBanxico minutes from the 6 Aug unanimous hold, watched for how firmly the pause is anchored.
On the Radar
Colombiathe Chocó quake’s aftermath is the near-term watch item: casualty and damage counts are still rising, and the low-penetration protection gap means reconstruction will lean on public funds rather than insured recoveries — a live test of the region’s cat resilience.
LatAmsuper El Niño intensification into its fall peak is the dominant physical risk: watch CCRIF parametric triggers (excess-rainfall/drought), Andean flood claims and Dry Corridor/NE Brazil crop losses as the event strengthens.
Colombiathe security escalation in Cauca and Tolima against the fiscal backdrop of a holed 2027 budget is the political risk to track, with the wealth-tax repeal still unfunded.