Macro
Mexicothe Finance Ministry delivers the 2027 economic package to Congress today, projecting 2.4% GDP growth and net spending of MX$10.02tn (down MX$91bn from 2026) as it targets a tighter deficit and inflation converging to 3% by 2027; the peso eased ~0.2% to ~16.92, still among the best EM performers. (Rio Times, Mexico Business News)
ColombiaAugust inflation jumped to a two-year-high 6.24% (core 6.27%), above the 6.12% consensus and breaking the disinflation streak, keeping BanRep boxed in at 12.00% with 2026 inflation now seen ~6.6%; COLCAP nonetheless set a fresh record Monday. (Bloomberg, FX.co)
Brazilmarkets reopen after the Independence Day holiday with the real around 5.10–5.16 and the Selic at 14.00%; a strong Q2 GDP print and an IPCA-15 that fell 0.4% in August (first drop in a year) leave the 15–16 Sept Copom cut-to-13.75% finely balanced, with Focus at ~5.01% inflation and 1.92% growth. (Rio Times, Trading Economics)
Argentinareserves sit near a seven-year high of ~US$51bn on strong farm exports, but the peso hovers near record lows as markets brace for the 26 Oct midterms that will test Milei’s reform mandate. (Buenos Aires Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmAM Best’s September market segment report finds the LatAm reinsurance market still growing despite a prolonged soft cycle, with abundant capacity, flexible terms and the region’s wide protection gap the main opportunity against climate, macro and regulatory headwinds. (Reinsurance News)
LatAmthe 1 July renewal stayed firmly buyer-favourable, with property-cat XL rates down 15–20% and parametrics moving mainstream (Howden Re); H1’26 cat-bond issuance hit a record ~US$17.3bn, deepening the ILS channel into the region. (Artemis)
Mexicothe sovereign parametric programme, placed via Agroasemex, added ~US$575m at the 2026 renewal for a layered ~US$1.17bn stack blending traditional and capital-market capacity. (InsuraBeat)
ColombiaCOLCAP hit an all-time high Monday before the hotter August CPI landed after the close, and the peso firmed ~0.35% to ~3,119, splitting the region’s risk tone. (Rio Times)
Political
Brazila Quaest poll taken 3–6 Sept shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro deadlocked at 41–41 in a simulated runoff ahead of the 4 Oct first round (25 Oct runoff), with Jair Bolsonaro ineligible after his coup conviction and backing his son. (US News/Reuters, Bloomberg)
ArgentinaMilei heads into the 26 Oct midterms with strong reserves but a strained peso, the key test of whether his coalition can extend its legislative reform push. (AS/COA)
ColombiaWashington’s decertification of Colombia as an antinarcotics ally keeps bilateral tension elevated under the de la Espriella government, an added political-risk overhang for cross-border business. (Rio Times)
Regulatory
Mexicothe 2027 economic package tabled today is the year’s key fiscal signal for rating agencies, targeting a smaller deficit and a lower SHRFSP (~55% of GDP), even as CNSF-regulated insurers absorb 2026 tax-reform pressure that keeps Mexico Fitch’s lone “deteriorating” 2026 insurance market. (Mexico Business News)
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the Insurance Act (Law 15.040) with the local ILS/LRS channel live, while CNSP Resolution 494/2026 (reinsurance, coinsurance, FX and placement abroad) takes effect 2 Jan 2027 and the April CBS/IBS VAT stays a live cost pressure on (re)insurers. (Reinsurance News)
ColombiaBanRep held at 12.00% and is running its US$4bn reserve-accumulation programme via put-option auctions, the live FX-policy tool as inflation re-accelerates. (BBVA Research)
Chilethe BCCh decides today with a hold at 4.50% expected; guidance and its trimmed 1.3% growth path matter more than the rate. (Central Banking)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA maintains an El Niño Advisory with a greater-than-90% chance of a very strong (“super”) event through the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter, and a ~69% probability the Oct–Dec peak exceeds every El Niño back to 1950. (NOAA CPC)
Central AmericaEl Salvador and Panama both declared drought states of emergency on 25 Aug, with ~6.9m quintals of Dry Corridor corn, beans and sorghum at risk; drought signal also extends to Colombia, Venezuela and northern Brazil. (PAHO, WRI)
Andesenhanced rainfall and flood/landslide risk build along the Pacific coast of Peru and Ecuador, with modelling pointing to a 0.6–1.7pp hit to Andean GDP, ~50% of the region’s hydro power exposed and Panama Canal draft pressure. (i4sea, WRI)
CaribbeanEl Niño keeps the 2026 Atlantic season below the 30-year average (NOAA/CSU/TSR), sustaining buyer-favourable cat-bond and reinsurance pricing; CCRIF’s US$1.57bn parametric pool remains untriggered YTD, with drought/agri parametrics the covers most relevant to the Dry Corridor stress. (Fox Weather, Artemis)
LatAmno major new nat cat event reported in the past 24 hours; the standing watch is slow-onset El Niño drought/hydrological stress rather than a discrete windstorm or quake loss. (NOAA CPC)
Coming Up
9 SepMexicoINEGI publishes August CPI (headline seen near 3.3%), the last read before Banxico’s late-September meeting.
10 SepLatAmNOAA CPC issues its monthly ENSO diagnostic update (second Thursday), the next gauge of super-El Niño intensity.
10 SepBrazilIBGE publishes August IPCA, the final inflation input before Copom.
15–16 SepBrazilCopom decides the Selic (14.00%), with a cut to 13.75% eyed but muddied by strong Q2 GDP.
16–17 SepLatAmthe Fed’s FOMC meeting, the key external driver of LAC currencies and the bar for regional cuts.
On the Radar
Brazilthe 4 Oct first round is a genuine coin-flip and Copom lands the week after; a dovish Selic surprise into a dead-heat election could swing both rates and the real sharply.
Central Americaa strengthening super-El Niño is shifting the LAC cat narrative from windstorm to drought; watch for parametric drought triggers, agricultural claims in corn/coffee/sugar and Panama Canal draft restrictions as the OND peak approaches.
Colombiare-accelerating inflation plus US decertification is a twin macro/political squeeze; sticky 6%+ prints keep BanRep the regional hawkish outlier and pressure the peso.