Macro
MexicoAugust CPI ticked up to 3.26% (from 3.12%) but held inside the target band, keeping Banxico parked at 6.50% into its 24 September decision. (Rio Times)
BrazilInflation is re-accelerating into next week’s Copom: the IGP-M’s first September preview rose 0.93% and São Paulo’s IPC-Fipe picked up to 0.26%, with Focus twelve-month inflation near 5.0%, above the 4.5% ceiling. (Rio Times)
LatAmRegional currencies weakened as the dollar rebounded: the Chilean peso dropped 1.45% to 941.1 (steepest one-day USD gain in three months), while Brazil’s real barely moved at 5.1059 and Argentina’s peso held near record-stable at 1,513. (Rio Times — Chile, Rio Times — Brazil, Rio Times — Argentina)
ArgentinaDisinflation has stalled near 2.9% m/m (annual ~33%) even as reserves top US$50bn and country risk sits near 580bp; the treasury is testing a return to markets with a four-year dollar bond as the 2028 maturity yields 8.9% vs 5.1% on the 2027. (Rio Times, Funds Society)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmAM Best’s September market segment report finds Latin American reinsurers still benefiting from GDP growth and growing through a prolonged soft cycle, with abundant capacity, facultative pricing down 5–20%, and a wide protection gap; it trimmed the regional 2026 growth forecast to 2.2%. (AM Best, Reinsurance News)
LatAmCat bonds and Brazil’s new Insurance Risk Letters continue to widen the region’s insurance-debt market (Fitch), with global Q2 issuance at a record ~US$11.3bn and Mexico’s sovereign parametric stack now ~US$1.17bn. (Artemis, InsuraBeat)
MexicoThe Latin America Reinsurance Group’s annual meeting runs 23–26 September in Mexico, with AM Best joining a panel on how macro, climate, and structural risks are reshaping the market — the region’s key renewal-season gathering. (InsuranceNewsNet)
Political
BrazilThe 4 October first round remains a coin-flip, with recent polling showing a Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro statistical tie and a probable 25 October runoff, all framed by the 25% US tariff in force since July. (AS/COA)
ArgentinaMilei governs from a strengthened position heading into the 26 October midterms, with reserves above US$50bn but a peso pinned near record lows testing the FX band. (Rio Times)
LatAmThe 2026 electoral supercycle (Costa Rica, Colombia and Peru already decided, Brazil in October) continues to read as anti-incumbency rather than a clean ideological realignment, sustaining the region’s rightward tilt. (AS/COA)
Regulatory
ColombiaBanRep’s next decision is 30 September, with analysts expecting the board to hold the policy rate at 12.00% as August CPI stays sticky near 6.24% and 2026 inflation is seen ~6.6%. (Rio Times)
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the new Insurance Act (Law 15.040), with the domestic ILS/LRS channel live and CNSP Resolution 494/2026 (reinsurance, coinsurance, FX and placement abroad) taking effect 2 January 2027. (Insuralex)
LatAmInsuralex’s 2026 regulatory report tracks uneven regional convergence toward Solvency II-style capital regimes and IFRS 17 (live in Brazil and Mexico, delayed in Argentina and Chile), with Mexico’s CNSF running its Solvency II-equivalent LISF. (Insuralex)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC’s latest ENSO discussion has El Niño strengthening, with a >90% chance of a very strong event through the 2026-27 fall/winter and a 75% chance the Oct–Dec RONI exceeds +2.5°C — a potentially historic “super” El Niño. (NOAA CPC)
AndesA strong El Niño threatens intense coastal rainfall, flooding and landslides in Peru and Ecuador (ports Callao and Guayaquil exposed), with the Andean region’s GDP potentially contracting 0.6–1.7pp; expect drought stress in Central America and NE Brazil and suppressed Atlantic vs elevated E-Pacific activity. (Rio Times, i4sea)
LatAmRe/insurance implications: record ~US$11.3bn Q2 cat-bond issuance and buyer-favourable terms are letting cedants strengthen cat covers ahead of the super Niño, Mexico’s parametric stack stands at ~US$1.17bn, and CCRIF’s ~US$1.57bn pool remains untriggered YTD. (Artemis, InsuraBeat)
ColombiaAftermath of the 10 August M7.4 earthquake continues to dominate regional loss tallies: ~US$9.57bn in economic losses, 331 dead, 466,606 people affected across 16 departments and 73,378 uninhabitable homes; the insured share remains minimal. (CNBC)
Central AmericaNo major new nat cat in the past 24h, but recent tropical-wave flooding left six dead and damaged homes and transport, compounding earthquake displacement; the 2026 Atlantic season is forecast at up to 14 named storms amid the super-Niño backdrop. (OCHA, UNICEF)
Coming Up
16 SepBrazilCopom rate decision; markets price ~95% odds of a 25bp Selic cut to 13.75%. (Rio Times)
22 SepBrazilCopom minutes released, detailing the vote and forward guidance. (BCB)
23–26 SepMexicoLatin America Reinsurance Group annual meeting, the region’s key renewal-season gathering. (InsuranceNewsNet)
24 SepMexicoBanxico rate decision; consensus for a hold at 6.50%. (Banxico)
30 SepColombiaBanRep rate decision; analysts expect a hold at 12.00%. (Rio Times)
On the Radar
AndesA strengthening super El Niño is the region’s dominant nat-cat theme: watch E-Pacific flooding and landslide triggers in Peru/Ecuador, Andean agricultural and logistics stress, and parametric/cat-bond trigger exposure as the event peaks into Nov–Jan.
BrazilReaccelerating inflation (IGP-M +0.93%, Focus ~5.0%) complicates the easing path just as the 16 September Copom and the 4 October election collide — a live risk to the cut-to-13.75% base case.
LatAmA broad dollar rebound is pressuring regional FX (Chile’s peso -1.45%); a sustained move would tighten financial conditions and revive imported-inflation risk across smaller Central American and Caribbean importers.