Macro

• LAC growth slowing in 2026. Regional GDP expansion is projected at 2.1% this year, below 2025’s 2.4%, with private consumption remaining the main driver while investment stays subdued amid elevated global uncertainty and high real financing costs; country-level forecasts: Brazil ~1.6%, Mexico ~1.1–1.3%, Colombia ~2.8%, Argentina ~3.5%. (AS/COA – IMF & World Bank April 2026 Update)

• Brazil: Copom meets June 16–17, easing cycle at inflection point. The Selic was cut to 14.50% in April (second consecutive 25bp cut), but the BCB raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 4.6% (from 3.9%), above the 3.0% midpoint target; consensus has turned more hawkish and the probability of pausing the cycle is rising. (Agência Brasil)

• Mexico: peso soft, growth under pressure. Banxico’s March rate cut pushed the peso back toward 17.85–18.15/USD; analysts have cut the 2026 GDP forecast to ~1.1–1.3%, with trade uncertainty elevated ahead of the USMCA joint review starting July 1 and the Section 122 US import surcharge expiry around July 24. (Mexico Business News)

• Argentina: growth returns but inflation reaccelerates. Milei’s administration projects ~3.5% GDP growth in 2026 — the first full-year expansion since 2021 — but annual inflation has re-climbed to 33%+, above the government’s 10.1% budget target; the country faces US$19B+ in debt maturities and needs to re-enter international bond markets to refinance. (Buenos Aires Herald)

Financial & Insurance Markets

• LAC re/insurance market soft but active. Absent major catastrophe events in 2025, abundant reinsurance capacity is driving competitive pricing — especially in financial lines — with buyers securing broader coverages and higher limits; parametric insurance is transitioning from experimental to mainstream as a complement to traditional indemnity products, particularly for climate-exposed risks. (Insurance Business Mag; Intelligent Insurer)

• Africa Specialty Risks eyes LAC expansion. The specialty carrier announced plans to accelerate entry into Latin America and Asia following a strategic investment from private equity firm Vitruvian Partners — adding to the international capacity entering the region. (Reinsurance News)

• Caribbean green/blue bond market at US$2 billion cumulative. Over US$450 million has been unlocked through debt-for-nature swaps in Belize, Barbados, and The Bahamas; however, rating agencies continue to diverge on whether these structures constitute distressed exchanges — creating residual sovereign credit-rating uncertainty for the region. (OECD Caribbean Development Dynamics 2026)

• Brazil’s digital insurance penetration accelerating. Digital policies now represent 15–20% of new sales in Brazil, led by embedded insurance and Insurtech platforms; meanwhile, Mexico’s 2026 tax reform continues to create underwriting and pricing headwinds in auto and health lines for large fleet accounts. (Aon Q1 2026 Global Insurance Market Insights)

Political

• Colombia runoff on June 21: far-right vs. left. First-round results (May 31) placed far-right Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.7% and leftist Iván Cepeda at 40.9%; de la Espriella is now favored after securing endorsements from former presidents Uribe and Duque and center-right Paloma Valencia — a win would sharply reverse Petro-era policy on security, FDI, and the state’s economic role. (Edelman Global Advisory)

• Mexico: Sheinbaum escalates rhetoric against US “interference.” President Sheinbaum adopted a notably more confrontational tone this week against what she described as US attempts to meddle in Mexican domestic politics — a pivot from her previously measured approach to the Trump administration — while a proposed electoral reform stalled after rejection by coalition partners, marking her first major legislative setback. (Bloomberg, 5 Jun 2026)

• Chile’s Kast era begins. President José Antonio Kast, who assumed office in March 2026, is steering Chile toward business-friendly policies — reducing regulatory uncertainty for financial services and investment — in a contrast to the interventionist approach of his predecessor. (Latinvex)

• Argentina’s Milei: resilient but challenged. The Milei administration continues to defy predictions of economic collapse, but reaccelerating inflation, large debt maturities, and upcoming midterm elections are pressuring political capital; the government’s ability to issue in international debt markets in 2026 is widely seen as the key credibility test for its reform program. (PIIE)

Regulatory

• Brazil’s new Insurance Contract Law fully in force. Law No. 15,040/2024 entered into effect in December 2025, revoking the Civil Code provisions governing insurance contracts; SUSEP’s 2026 Regulatory Plan centres on implementation, and CNSP Resolution No. 489/2026 (March 12) introduced new rules for special supervisory regimes — intervention, fiscal supervision, and extrajudicial and ordinary liquidation. (Clyde & Co; ICLG Brazil 2026)

• Brazil broadens SUSEP’s regulatory perimeter. Complementary Law No. 213/2025 expressly brought insurance co-operatives and mutual property protection arrangements under CNSP and SUSEP oversight — a material change for entities previously operating outside the formal supervisory framework. (Reinsurance News)

• Brazil IOF phaseout on insurance underway. Premium taxation is transitioning to the new IBS/CBS system, with a gradual phaseout of IOF on insurance and reinsurance operations — a structurally significant fiscal change for all carriers and reinsurers active in Brazil. (ICLG Brazil 2026)

• LAC digital finance regulation lagging fintech growth. Colombia’s Bre-B instant payment platform (launched September 2025) is advancing real-time payments aligned with Brazil’s PIX model, but regulators across the Mercosur bloc are still harmonising outdated banking laws — creating compliance asymmetries for cross-border insurers and fintechs operating regionally. (MercoPress)

On the Radar

• Brazil COPOM decision — June 16–17: With inflation above target and consensus turning more hawkish, watch whether the BCB pauses or extends its easing cycle; the outcome will affect insurance asset yields and local capital costs.
• USMCA second negotiating round — June 16–17, Washington: Agriculture and “level playing field” provisions on the agenda; outcome sets the tone for Mexico trade and investment risk heading into 2H 2026.
• Colombia presidential runoff — June 21: A de la Espriella win would be the most business-positive outcome for investment conditions and regulatory stability; a Cepeda win signals Petro-era policy continuity. Both carry distinct political risk insurance implications.

Briefing prepared: 9 June 2026 (second edition). Sources: Bloomberg, Agência Brasil, AS/COA, Edelman Global Advisory, PIIE, ECLAC/OECD, Clyde & Co, ICLG, Aon, Insurance Business Magazine, Reinsurance News, MercoPress, Mexico Business News, Buenos Aires Herald, Latinvex, Intelligent Insurer.

🌎 LAC Re/Insurance Daily Briefing — 2026-06-09 (Third Edition)

Macro

• LAC GDP growth moderates to 2.1–2.3% in 2026: Regional growth remains below the global average; Colombia leads major markets at ~2.8%, while Mexico lags at ~1.1–1.4% amid USMCA uncertainty; Brazil Selic back at 14.75% as BCB pivoted hawkish on unanchored inflation expectations, with the next Copom decision June 16–17. (ECLAC) (J.P. Morgan Private Bank)

• Mexico facing dual headwinds from USMCA uncertainty and tax reform: USMCA-related investment restraint and a domestic confidence slump are compressing growth forecasts; simultaneously, the 2026 tax reform’s removal of VAT credits on insurance claim payments is adding cost pressure across auto and health insurance lines. (OECD Economic Surveys: Mexico 2026) (Asinta)

• Colombia inflation elevated ahead of runoff: A 23% minimum wage increase drove a 100bp rate hike in late January; with the presidential runoff on June 21, the policy path forward remains uncertain and tied to election outcome. (Scotiabank Latam Weekly)

• Chile stable; Paraguay solid: Chile’s inflation returned to target in January with limited easing expected; Paraguay projects 3.7–4.2% real GDP growth in 2026, among the strongest in the region. (KPMG Latam Q1 2026)

Financial & Insurance Markets

• Fitch sets neutral LAC insurance outlook, Mexico flagged deteriorating: Fitch’s 2026 sector outlook is neutral for LAC insurers overall, but Mexico is specifically categorized as deteriorating amid tax reform-driven margin compression; AMIS projects insurance premiums could rise 10–20% as a result. (Reinsurance News) (Asinta)

• LAC insurance market reaches $1.03 trillion; protection gap persists at 81%: The market continues to grow—digital channels account for 15–20% of new sales in Brazil—but the climate protection gap stands at 81%, with only 19% of climate-related losses insured; parametric insurance is emerging as a key tool to close this gap. (Market Data Forecast) (Intelligent Insurer)

• 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast below-normal but risks remain: CSU and Acrisure Re project ~13 named storms vs. a 14-storm average; June renewals saw property cat pricing fall 15–20%, with Florida securing 12%+ more capacity—Caribbean cedents will gauge spillover effects at mid-year. Swiss Re cautions that one landfalling storm can rapidly change the narrative, referencing Jamaica’s $9B Hurricane Melissa loss in 2025. (Artemis) (Insurance Business)

• Lockton enters Colombian reinsurance market; Africa Specialty Risks targets LAC expansion: Lockton received regulatory approval to operate a reinsurance brokerage in Colombia; Africa Specialty Risks announced LAC expansion post-Vitruvian Partners investment—both moves signal international appetite for the region’s underinsured risks. (Reinsurance News)

Political

• Colombia runoff June 21 — pivotal for business climate: De la Espriella (43.7% in round one, endorsed by Uribe and Duque) leads Cepeda (40.9%); a de la Espriella win would shift Colombia toward pro-U.S., market-oriented policy while a Cepeda win would signal continuity of Petro-era direction. Deadly clashes ahead of the vote raise security concerns. (CNN) (ACLED)

• Brazil election uncertainty building ahead of October vote: Lula’s polling dominance has faded with stronger right-leaning challengers emerging; increasing electoral uncertainty adds to capital market volatility risk in H2 2026. (J.P. Morgan Private Bank)

• Bolivia unrest intensifying, organized crime escalating regionally: Bolivia saw a 28% increase in demonstrations in May on fuel shortages and economic deterioration; ACLED also highlights organized crime violence in Honduras as a key security risk across Central America. (ACLED) (Brussels Morning)

• Haiti election watch: Haiti is expected to hold its first general election in over a decade in H2 2026, though the date remains uncertain given persistent security concerns—an event that could significantly affect Caribbean political risk assessments. (AS/COA)

Regulatory

• Mexico tax reform reshapes insurance economics — CNSF monitoring solvency: The removal of insurer VAT credits on claim payments effectively raises loss costs across major product lines; AMIS expects 10–20% premium increases and the CNSF is expected to scrutinize solvency ratios as margins compress, particularly for auto and health insurers. (Asinta) (International Finance)

• CNSF Circular 2/24 on ESG integration in force: Mexico’s insurance and bonding regulator now requires companies to formally identify ESG criteria applied in investment policies, risk analysis, and governance—an early but binding step toward sustainable finance integration in the sector. (Latin Lawyer)

• Brazil regulatory agenda active: SUSEP’s 2026 plan centers on implementing the new Insurance Contract Law (Law 15,040/2024); CNSP Resolution 489/2026 governs special supervisory regimes; IOF phaseout on insurance premiums continues under the IBS/CBS transition—a cumulative set of changes for all carriers active in Brazil. (ICLG)

• LAC Basel harmonization remains a concern: An estimated 44% of LAC central banks still operate hybrid Basel I/II frameworks, creating regulatory heterogeneity that complicates cross-border risk transfer and reinsurance structures across the region. (ICLG Overview)

On the Radar

• Colombia presidential runoff (June 21): The highest-stakes political event for LAC business sentiment in H1 2026; outcome determines direction on security, FDI, and state economic intervention.
• Brazil Copom (June 16–17): Selic path decision will signal whether Brazil’s rate cycle pivots hawkish—affecting insurance asset yields and investment-grade spread dynamics regionally.
• Caribbean hurricane season peak: Season now underway (June 1–Nov 30); below-normal forecast provides limited comfort given Jamaica’s 2025 loss experience—watch for any early-season tropical development.

Briefing prepared: 9 June 2026 (third edition). Sources: ECLAC, World Bank, J.P. Morgan Private Bank, Scotiabank Economics, KPMG, Fitch Ratings, Market Data Forecast, Artemis, Insurance Business, Intelligent Insurer, Reinsurance News, CNN, ACLED, AS/COA, Brussels Morning, Asinta, International Finance, Latin Lawyer, ICLG.