LatAm Daily Briefing — 11 June 2026

Macro

MexicoHeadline inflation eased to 3.94% in the second half of May (from 4.45% in April), returning within Banxico’s tolerance band; the bank’s 25bp cut to 6.50% likely marks the end of the easing cycle after a 0.8% Q1 GDP contraction that could drag 2026 growth to ~1.0–1.2%. (Trading Economics) (Mexico Business News)
BrazilHeadline inflation fell to 5.3% y/y in early June, but the BCB raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.6% (from 3.9%); the Selic sits at 14.50% after two consecutive 25bp cuts, with Copom flagging Middle East-driven fuel/food price risks ahead of its June 16–17 meeting. (Capital Economics) (Agência Brasil)
ArgentinaIMF Article IV projects ~3.5% real GDP growth in 2026 on private investment and primary exports, but monthly inflation remains stuck near 3%, the country faces $20bn+ in debt payments this year, and net reserves are barely positive against a $4bn IMF accumulation target. (IMF) (PIIE)
ColombiaCore inflation re-accelerated to 5.5%, prompting BanRep to hike 200bp to 11.25% over two meetings; analysts see the rate reaching 12.75%, while a board governance standoff (the Finance Minister walked out of the March meeting) risks paralyzing policy. (GlobalSource Partners) (Rio Times)

LatAmFitch revised its global reinsurance sector outlook to “deteriorating” for 2026, citing abundant capacity (global reinsurance capital at US$735bn, alternative capital at a record US$121bn) and expecting gradual price erosion across most lines — a softening backdrop for LAC renewals. (Actuarial Post)
LatAmThe region’s climate protection gap remains at 81% despite rising reinsurance interest; parametric covers are increasingly treated as a mainstream complement to indemnity products, and cedant sophistication is rising fast. (Insurance Business) (Intelligent Insurer)
CaribbeanCSU’s June update lowered its 2026 Atlantic forecast to 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 majors on a likely moderate-to-strong El Niño; the probability of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean fell to 26% (vs. 47% average). (Artemis)

PeruThe presidential runoff is too close to call: with ~95% tallied, leftist Roberto Sánchez leads Keiko Fujimori 50.10% to 49.90%; ONPE says the full count may not conclude until mid-July, prolonging investor uncertainty. (Al Jazeera) (Americas Quarterly)
ColombiaThe June 21 presidential runoff pits far-right Abelardo de la Espriella against leftist Iván Cepeda as Petro’s term winds down in August — converging with the BanRep crisis and a suspended peace process as key country risks. (AS/COA)
ChileWith the new administration in place since the November election, political and regulatory uncertainty has fallen and investment is expected to strengthen on still-favorable copper fundamentals — the most stable political backdrop among Andean peers. (KPMG)

BrazilSUSEP’s public consultation No. 14/2025 under the new Insurance Act (in force since 11 Dec 2025) covers reinsurance/retrocession cessions, coinsurance and FX operations; a controversial proposal would bar claims-control/cooperation clauses as incompatible with insurers’ exclusive liability, and local reinsurers retroceding >70% of premiums had to file technical justifications by 31 March 2026. (DAC Beachcroft) (Chambers)
MexicoBanxico’s split 3-2 decision to cut to 6.50% came with guidance that holding the rate “will likely be appropriate going forward” amid trade and geopolitical uncertainty — effectively ending the cycle begun in March 2024. (BBVA Research) (Mexico News Daily)
LatAmS&P’s Americas sovereign rating trends report points to recovering credit quality across the region in 2026, tempered by greater trade uncertainty. (S&P Global Ratings)

ColombiaPresidential runoff on June 21 (de la Espriella vs. Cepeda); outcome will shape fiscal, security and regulatory direction for 2026–2030.
BrazilCopom meets June 16–17; watch whether the raised 2026 inflation forecast (4.6%) stalls the nascent easing cycle.
PeruOfficial runoff count continues; ONPE signals final results possibly not before mid-July — extended political vacuum risk.