LatAm Daily Briefing — 12 June 2026

Macro

MexicoBanxico cut its 2026 GDP forecast from 1.6% to 1.1% after the economy contracted 0.6% q/q in Q1, reviving recession fears; the May analyst survey showed investment sentiment at zero for the third time in six months. (Mexicanist) (Mexico Business News)
BrazilCopom meets June 17–18 with Selic at 14.50% after two consecutive 25bp cuts; the BCB turned hawkish, lifting its 2026 inflation view to 4.6% as the Iran conflict’s oil shock (Brent ~$114) feeds fuel and freight costs. (Rio Times) (Agência Brasil)
MexicoThe peso weakened modestly to around 19.25/USD after Banxico’s growth downgrade and end-of-cycle signal. (Rio Times)

ArgentinaS&P raised Argentina’s long-term sovereign rating to B- (stable) from CCC+, citing fiscal results and improved liquidity access under Milei; spreads remain roughly twice the government’s target, and Fitch says further upgrades hinge on reserve build-up. (Bloomberg) (Buenos Aires Times)
LatAmH1 2026 catastrophe bond issuance is now projected at $16.3bn and could rise further, with risk-adjusted prices down 20%+ y/y and investors supporting riskier tranches — a softening tailwind for LAC sponsors. (Artemis) (Artemis)
CaribbeanCCRIF grew its parametric risk pool 9% to $1.57bn of coverage limits ahead of the 2026 hurricane season (Caribbean portfolio +17%, Central America +18%), adding Jamaica Public Service and Nevis Electricity as members. (Artemis)
JamaicaThe OUR approved JPS’s multi-layered hurricane insurance plan combining CCRIF and Descartes parametric covers totalling US$106.6m, weeks after the World Bank priced Jamaica’s new $200m cat bond. (Jamaica Observer) (Insurance Journal)

ColombiaThe June 21 runoff between right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella (44% first round) and leftist Iván Cepeda (41%) is too close to call amid extreme polarization; the winner takes office August 7 and could redefine relations with Washington. (CNN) (AS/COA)
PeruThe runoff count remains razor-thin between leftist Roberto Sánchez and Keiko Fujimori with over 94% tallied; ONPE warns final results may take weeks, extending the political vacuum into July. (Americas Quarterly) (AS/COA)

BrazilSUSEP’s public consultation No. 14/2025 under the new Insurance Act (in force since 11 December 2025) advances rules on reinsurance, retrocession, coinsurance and FX operations; a proposal to bar claims-control clauses remains the market’s chief concern, with further rulemaking expected through 2026. (DAC Beachcroft) (ICLG)
MexicoBanxico’s 25bp cut to 6.50% formally signals the end of the easing cycle begun in March 2024, anchoring the discount-rate backdrop for insurers’ reserving and Solvency II-style capital calculations. (Mexico Business News)
LatAmIFRS 17 adoption remains uneven across the region: Brazil and Mexico have implemented, Argentina and Chile delayed, and Peru is expected to follow soon — a compliance divergence relevant to regional groups. (RNA Analytics)

LatAmNOAA CPC and IRI now see El Niño emerging in May–July 2026 (82% chance) and persisting through winter 2026–27 (96% for Dec–Feb); Niño3.4 weekly anomalies have surged to +0.9°C, with rising odds of a strong-to-very-strong event — some forecasters flag “super El Niño” potential into 2027. (NOAA CPC) (IRI) (Weather West)
PeruEl Niño Costero impacts continue to accumulate: at least 68 deaths from floods and landslides since December and ~931 km of roads damaged, with Arequipa under state of emergency earlier this year; wetter-than-normal conditions are expected to intensify in Peru and Ecuador as the basin-wide event builds. (Euronews) (Phys.org)
CaribbeanILS managers see developing El Niño shifting hurricane-season probabilities downward but caution that supply-demand, not climatology, will dictate spreads; Twelve Securis is “cautious but optimistic” on the season’s risk profile. (Artemis) (Artemis)
LatAmSwiss Re warns insurance alone cannot absorb ENSO disruption in the region: crop resilience stands at 34% (vs 41% global) with a $6bn crop protection gap, and weather-related resilience indices of just 10% for Brazil and 18% for Mexico. (Reinsurance News)
CubaA magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck near Cuba on June 9, shaking buildings in Havana and felt as far as Florida; no major damage or insured loss has been reported so far. (The Columbian)

BrazilCopom decision June 17–18: watch whether the raised 4.6% inflation forecast and oil shock stall the easing cycle.
ColombiaPresidential runoff June 21 (de la Espriella vs. Cepeda) sets the fiscal, security and regulatory direction for 2026–2030.
PeruOfficial runoff count continues; final results possibly not before mid-July — extended political-vacuum risk alongside building El Niño exposure.