Macro
BrazilThe Selic sits at 14.75% after the central bank’s hawkish turn, with the Copom decision due 17 June; the BCB has lifted its 2026 inflation projection to 4.6% and markets broadly expect a hold as fiscal-credibility concerns persist. (Rio Times) (FXMacroData)
MexicoHeadline inflation eased to 3.94% in the second half of May (from 4.45%), the lowest in four months and back within Banxico’s tolerance band; the 7 May cut to 6.50% closed a 14-move easing cycle, and growth is seen at just ~1.3% in 2026 after a soft start to the year. (Trading Economics) (Rio Times)
ColombiaInflation remains well above target; BanRep tightened by 100bp in January and further hikes are seen likely, tempering an otherwise solid growth path projected at ~2.6% for 2026. (World Bank GEP)
LatAmConsensus has regional inflation easing toward ~3.7% in 2026 with growth edging up to ~2.3%, though trade-policy uncertainty and sluggish domestic demand remain the binding constraints across most markets. (World Bank GEP)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmThe regional insurance market is estimated at ~US$1.03 trillion in 2026, but demand for reinsurance capacity is strengthening against a wide range of natural perils even as penetration stays low and protection gaps persist. (Market Data Forecast)
MexicoFitch flags Mexico as the 2026 outlier in an otherwise stable LATAM insurance landscape, with most rated regional carriers holding stable outlooks and more upgrades than downgrades on firmer macro footing. (Reinsurance News)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC has grown its parametric risk pool 9% to US$1.57bn of coverage limits ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season, adding electric-utility members in Jamaica and Nevis and a fisheries cover; no parametric triggers have been activated year-to-date. (Artemis)
Political
PeruThe presidential runoff between Keiko Fujimori and the left’s Roberto Sánchez remains razor-thin, with the electoral authority showing Fujimori marginally ahead; a prolonged official count is extending investor uncertainty. (Foreign Policy)
ColombiaThe 21 June runoff pits far-right Abelardo de la Espriella against the left’s Iván Cepeda, an outcome that will set fiscal, security and regulatory direction for 2026–2030 and converges with an ongoing central-bank governance dispute. (AS/COA)
LatAm2026 remains a decisive electoral supercycle — Colombia, Peru, Brazil, Costa Rica and Haiti all at the polls — with the regional trend tilting toward more conservative governments. (Colombia One)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP’s overhaul under the new Insurance Act continues, with the relaxation of reinsurance protectionist rules in Brazil and Argentina advancing, even as a contested proposal on claims-control clauses keeps cedants and reinsurers watchful. (Lexology)
MexicoBanxico’s 7 May cut to 6.50% came with its firmest hold guidance of the cycle (“appropriate to maintain the reference rate at its current level”), effectively ending the easing that began in March 2024. (Rio Times)
LatAmOpen-insurance and digital-regulation frameworks and Solvency II-style requirements are spreading across the region; upcoming elections in Chile, Peru, Colombia and Brazil plus structural reforms in Panama and Colombia could shift regulatory priorities and affect carrier capitalisation. (iNLIP)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC’s latest diagnostic keeps ENSO-neutral conditions in place now but favours El Niño emerging in the June–August window (~62%) and persisting through the 2026–27 boreal winter (~96% for Dec–Feb), with central/eastern Pacific SSTs running above average. (NOAA CPC)
CaribbeanColorado State’s June update trimmed its 2026 Atlantic forecast to 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 majors on a likely moderate-to-strong El Niño, cutting Caribbean major-hurricane probability to 26% (vs. a 47% average) and easing Atlantic insured-loss exposure relative to a busy Eastern Pacific. (Artemis)
LatAmSwiss Re warns the region is “particularly vulnerable” to ENSO-driven extremes, which stress already-wide agriculture and property protection gaps; LAC crop resilience sits at ~34% (vs. a 41% global average), leaving an estimated US$6bn crop protection gap that El Niño’s drought/flood swings could expose. (Reinsurance News)
AndesPeru and Ecuador saw flooding affect more than 110,000 people during the last cycle, while southern South America drought lifted agricultural losses and wildfire risk; insurers are monitoring early dry/wet-season signals that historically precede crop-loss claims as El Niño develops. (UN News)
LatAmNo major nat cat event reported in the region in the past 24 hours; Q1 2026 global insured losses ran ~26% below the 10-year average, leaving the market well-capitalised heading into the Atlantic season. (Risk & Insurance)
Coming Up
16–17 JuneBrazilCopom announces its Selic decision the evening of 17 June; a hold at 14.75% is widely expected. (BCB)
21 JuneColombiaPresidential runoff, de la Espriella vs. Cepeda, setting policy direction for 2026–2030. (AS/COA)
24 JuneMexicoINEGI publishes first-half-of-June CPI; watch whether disinflation holds near the 3.9% band. (Trading Economics)
25 JuneMexicoBanxico rate decision; consensus sees a hold at 6.50% after the cycle’s close. (FXStreet)
9 JulyLatAmNOAA CPC monthly ENSO diagnostic update; watch whether El Niño emergence odds firm further. (NOAA CPC)
On the Radar
PeruA protracted, knife-edge vote count risks an extended political vacuum and currency/sovereign-spread volatility until results are certified.
LatAmFitch’s “deteriorating” global reinsurance outlook on abundant capacity points to gradual price erosion that could soften upcoming LAC renewals — a watch item for cedants and brokers.
Central America / AndesAs El Niño develops, the classic split — drought in Central America, Colombia and northeast Brazil versus flooding in Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia — is the key agricultural and crop-loss exposure to track into the second half.