Macro
BrazilInflation ticked up to ~4.72% ahead of Wednesday’s Copom, but with the Middle East oil scare lifting and domestic activity resilient, the path toward gradually lower rates later in the year looks clearer; the 14.75% Selic still offers among the highest real yields globally. (Rio Times) (Central Banking)
MexicoHeadline inflation drifted up to 4.51% by the first fortnight of June (core 4.20%) from 3.93% in April, keeping Banxico on hold at 6.50% after it signaled the end of its easing cycle; the bank still expects convergence to target in Q3. (Mexico Business News) (Investing.com)
ArgentinaCore inflation has re-accelerated off its 1.5% May low even as annual prints sit near 31%; the IMF is pressing Milei to rebuild reserves (only ~$10bn usable) against a $4bn net target, with $5bn principal and $3bn interest in external debt due this year. (PIIE) (Americas Quarterly)
LatAmRegional inflation is projected near 4.3% in 2026 with Brazil, Mexico and Chile all expected to ease later in the year; Peru’s economy grew a stronger-than-expected 3.73%, anchoring the region’s steadier Andean core. (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC grew its parametric pool 9% to US$1.57bn of coverage limits ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season, with no triggers activated year-to-date; Cayman is weighing its own cat bond to expand hurricane protection. (Artemis) (Artemis)
LatAmCat bond investors are watching the developing El Niño closely as it dampens 2026 Atlantic hurricane expectations, a supportive backdrop for ILS pricing into the season; Jamaica’s $200m IBRD cat bond remains a model for sovereign disaster-risk financing in the region. (The Insurer) (Artemis)
LatAmSwiss Re reiterates that insurance alone cannot shield the region from El Niño/La Niña disruption, underscoring the persistent climate protection gap and the case for parametric and sovereign risk-transfer layers. (Reinsurance News)
Political
ColombiaThe 21 June runoff pits far-right Abelardo de la Espriella (43.7% first round) against leftist Iván Cepeda (40.9%), Petro’s chosen successor; de la Espriella’s surprise first-round lead upended pollsters and frames a polarizing choice on security and the role of the state. (AS/COA) (Al Jazeera)
PeruThe presidential runoff remains too close to call: with ~98% counted, fewer than 1,000 votes separate Keiko Fujimori from leftist Roberto Sánchez (~50.1% vs 49.9%), and a slow count means final confirmation could take weeks — prolonging investor uncertainty. (Foreign Policy) (Americas Quarterly)
LatAmRegional houses see modest 2026 growth amid upheaval in Venezuela and a busy electoral calendar; concurrent Andean swings (Peru count, Colombia runoff) are the dominant near-term political-risk events for underwriters. (Goldman Sachs)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP’s licensing and prudential framework continues to tighten under the new Insurance Contract Act (CNSP Resolutions 422/2021 and 432/2021, Circular 700/2024), with the reinsurance/retrocession consultation still reshaping claims-control clause practice. (ICLG)
MexicoCNSF continues to operate Mexico’s Solvency II–equivalent LISF regime; Skadden’s new prudential-solvency survey flags the region’s gradual convergence toward risk-based capital as a competitive and compliance driver for insurers. (Skadden)
ColombiaBanRep held its policy rate at 9.25% as the government announced measures to finance the 2026 budget; minutes from the June board meeting are due shortly and will signal the easing path into the post-election period. (BBVA Research) (Banco de la República)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA’s CPC maintains its El Niño Advisory issued 11 June: El Niño conditions are present and strengthening, with the Niño-3.4 index at roughly +0.9°C and a ~62–63% probability of a “very strong” (Super El Niño) peak heading into Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27, persisting through year-end. (NOAA CPC) (Direct Relief)
CaribbeanA strengthening El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic activity: CSU, NOAA and Tropical Storm Risk all forecast a 2026 season slightly below the 30-year average, easing Caribbean wind-loss exposure — but the same phase raises drought, heatwave and food/water-insecurity risk across the Caribbean and Central America. (Artemis)
PeruThe “El Niño Costero 2026” episode that earlier killed ~68–72 people and damaged 100+ bridges and 115,000+ homes across Piura, Tumbes, Ica and Arequipa continues to weigh on crop (potato, corn, beans, wheat) and infrastructure loss exposure; agricultural insurers are monitoring renewed coastal warming. (WSWS) (WRI)
Central AmericaA super El Niño cycle raises the risk of severe drought and heatwaves across Central America’s Dry Corridor, with FAO/WFP flagging elevated food-insecurity and crop-loss risk (corn, coffee, sugar) that feeds agricultural and parametric claims potential. (WFP)
Dominican RepublicNo major nat cat events in LAC in the past 24 hours; only minor seismicity (a M3.4 near Punta Cana on 15 June, M5.4 near Belize City on 8 June) with no reported insured losses. Next monitoring windows: Eastern Pacific season activity and the NOAA CPC monthly ENSO update. (Earthquake Track)
Coming Up
17 JunBrazilCopom monetary-policy decision (Selic, prior 14.75%); markets watch whether resilient activity and the lifted oil risk open the door to easing. (FXMacroData)
17 JunChileBCCh monetary-policy meeting (rate at 4.5%), with the decision and accompanying IPoM released the following working day. (Banco Central de Chile)
21 JunColombiaPresidential runoff (de la Espriella vs. Cepeda), the region’s pivotal near-term political-risk event. (AS/COA)
24 JunMexicoINEGI mid-month (first-fortnight June) CPI; key read on whether inflation keeps drifting above 4.5%. (Trading Economics)
25 JunMexicoBanxico monetary-policy decision; consensus expects a hold at 6.50% after the bank flagged the end of its easing cycle. (FXStreet)
On the Radar
PeruA protracted, razor-thin vote count risks an extended political vacuum and contested-result scenario; watch ONPE confirmation timing and any legal challenges that could prolong uncertainty into July.
LatAmWith a Super El Niño firming, the divergence between a suppressed Atlantic and an elevated Eastern Pacific season — plus Dry Corridor drought and Andean flooding — is the defining nat-cat theme for H2 2026 underwriting and parametric trigger design.
BrazilWednesday’s Copom communiqué is the swing factor for regional rates sentiment: a dovish tilt would reinforce the broader LAC easing narrative into year-end.