Macro
BrazilCopom decides the Selic today (prior 14.75%), with markets split on whether the bank holds at a restrictive plateau or signals the start of easing as IPCA runs near 4.7% and oil risk lingers. (FXMacroData) (Agência Brasil)
MexicoBanxico stays on hold at 6.50% with CPI drifting toward ~4.5% on food and peso weakness; its next decision lands 26 June and growth forecasts have been trimmed toward ~1.1%. (Banxico calendar)
LatAmRegional growth is seen near 2.1% in 2026 (below 2.4% in 2025), with resilient labor markets and contained inflation offset by still-high global rates and trade uncertainty. (World Bank) (Goldman Sachs)
ColombiaBanRep held its policy rate at 9.25% in June, with growth seen near 2.8% on a recovering manufacturing sector ahead of the 21 June runoff. (BanRep) (BBVA Research)
Financial & Insurance Markets
CaribbeanCCRIF grew its parametric risk pool 9% to US$1.57bn of coverage limits and added new members ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season, with no triggers activated year-to-date. (Artemis)
LatAmFitch says cat bonds and insurance-linked securities will widen the region’s insurance debt market, though transparency gaps and regulatory uncertainty still constrain alternative-capital use versus emerging-market peers. (Artemis) (Artemis)
LatAmA group of Latin American sovereigns is exploring a joint catastrophe bond for earthquake cover, pooling exposure to access cheaper capital-market protection. (Artemis)
Political
ColombiaThe 21 June runoff pits right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella (44% first round) against leftist Iván Cepeda (41%) in a polarized race that could redefine ties with Washington; the winner takes office 7 August. (CNN) (WOLA)
PeruThe presidential runoff count remains razor-thin between Keiko Fujimori and the left’s challenger, prolonging Andean political uncertainty as a concurrent left turn in Colombia would shift the regional balance. ([Reuters, 16 Jun 2026])
VenezuelaUpheaval in Venezuela remains a flagged regional risk to investment sentiment and migration flows across the northern Andes and Caribbean. (Goldman Sachs)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues tightening prudential and licensing rules under the new Insurance Act, with consultation 14/2025 on reinsurance and claims-control clauses advancing. (ICLG)
MexicoThe CNSF runs its Solvency II–equivalent LISF regime; the supervisor has flagged rising property claims from extreme weather, reinforcing pressure on pricing and capital. (EY)
LatAmIFRS 17 is now live in Brazil and Mexico, while Argentina and Chile have delayed adoption and Peru is expected to implement soon, leaving an uneven regional reporting landscape. (EY)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA’s El Niño Advisory remains in effect, with the event expected to strengthen to moderate-to-strong by fall and a 63% chance of “very strong” status (Niño-3.4 >2.0°C) by late 2026, persisting through at least year-end. (NOAA) (NOAA CPC)
AndesNorthern coastal Peru and Ecuador face intensified rainfall, flash floods and landslides damaging transport corridors, while a weakening Humboldt Current pressures fisheries; parts of the Amazon risk drought and wildfire. (WRI) (JRC)
Central AmericaDrought risk is concentrated across the Central American Dry Corridor (notably Guatemala) and the Caribbean, raising agricultural stress and crop-loss exposure for corn, coffee and sugar. (Direct Relief)
CaribbeanThe 2026 Atlantic season is forecast at up to 14 named storms, six hurricanes and three majors; El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic activity, supporting softer cat-bond pricing even as Eastern Pacific risk runs elevated. (UNICEF)
LatAmNo major new nat cat event in the past 24 hours; only minor seismicity recorded across the Caribbean and Central America, with no parametric (CCRIF) triggers activated. (Earthquake Track)
Coming Up
17 JunBrazilCopom announces its Selic decision (prior 14.75%) at 18:30 BRT. (FXMacroData)
21 JunColombiaPresidential runoff between de la Espriella and Cepeda. (CNN)
24 JunBrazilIBGE releases IPCA-15 mid-month inflation. (IBGE)
26 JunMexicoBanxico monetary policy decision (currently 6.50%). (Banxico calendar)
9 JulLatAmNOAA CPC monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion update. (NOAA CPC)
On the Radar
BrazilCopom’s guidance tonight could reset the regional rate-cut narrative; a dovish tilt would ripple across LAC duration and FX.
ColombiaThe 21 June runoff carries direct implications for US relations, fiscal policy and insurer/investor sentiment in the Andes.
LatAmA strengthening El Niño into the Atlantic peak season is the key climate watch — parametric trigger levels and cat-bond pricing will hinge on whether Atlantic suppression holds against elevated Eastern Pacific and flood risk.