Macro
BrazilCopom cut the Selic 25bp to 14.25% on 17 June (a third straight unanimous quarter-point cut) but dropped its pledge to keep easing and raised its 2026 inflation projection to 5.2%, signalling the cycle may be near its end. (Rio Times)
MexicoBanxico stays on hold at 6.50% with headline inflation back in band at 3.94% in late May, but analysts cut 2026 growth to 1.10% (a third straight downgrade) after a Q1 contraction; next decision is 26 June. (Mexico Business News) (Trading Economics)
ArgentinaMarkets cooled in early June (Merval -2.83%) even as the managed peso held, but the program retains credibility on ~4.4% growth and a $10bn reserve milestone; bonds still price “reversal risk” for the post-Milei period. (Rio Times) (Buenos Aires Herald)
LatAmRegional 2026 growth is seen near 2.1%, below 2025, with contained inflation and resilient labor markets offset by still-high global rates and trade uncertainty. (Goldman Sachs)
Financial & Insurance Markets
CaribbeanCCRIF grew its parametric risk pool 9% to US$1.57bn of coverage limits, adding members (Jamaica Public Service, Nevis Electricity) and new products (Livelihood Protection Policy, COAST) ahead of the Atlantic season, with no triggers activated year-to-date. (Artemis)
JamaicaPlans to renew its CCRIF parametric coverage in 2026 but there is no confirmation of a new cat bond; its 2024 IBRD cat bond paid out in full after Hurricane Melissa, leaving the island without that protection in force for the 2026 season. (Artemis)
LatAmMid-year catastrophe reinsurance pricing is falling 15–20% as El Niño suppresses Atlantic forecasts, with strong cat-bond issuance and ILS capacity favouring cedents into the June/July renewals. (InsuraBeat) (Artemis)
ArgentinaSovereign curve prices political risk: a dollar bond maturing in 2028 (post-term) yielded 8.9% versus 5.1% on a comparable 2027 bond maturing before Milei leaves office. (PIIE)
Political
ColombiaThe 21 June runoff pits far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella (43.7% first round) against leftist Iván Cepeda (40.9%) in a highly polarized, too-close-to-call race; the winner takes office 7 August. (AS/COA) (CBS News)
PeruThe presidential runoff count remains razor-thin, prolonging Andean political uncertainty as a concurrent left turn in Colombia would shift the regional balance. (AS/COA)
VenezuelaUpheaval in Venezuela remains a flagged regional risk to investment sentiment and migration flows across the northern Andes and Caribbean. (Goldman Sachs)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP and the CNSP continue tightening licensing and prudential rules under the new Insurance Act (Circular 700/2024, Resolutions 422/432), with reinsurance consultation 14/2025 on claims-control clauses advancing. (ICLG)
MexicoThe CNSF runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime, focused on solvency and the rising weight of weather-related property claims on pricing and capital. (Latin Lawyer) (EY)
LatAmIFRS 17 is now live in Brazil and Mexico, while Argentina and Chile have delayed adoption, leaving an uneven regional reporting landscape. (EY)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC’s 11 June diagnostic upgraded the status to an El Niño Advisory: conditions are present and expected to strengthen into Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance Dec–Feb), with a 63% chance of a “very strong” peak (Niño-3.4 >2.0°C) in November–January that would rank among the largest since 1950. (NOAA CPC)
AndesAbove-average rainfall is forecast for Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia; Peru has already reported 931 km of damaged roads and a state of emergency across 700+ districts, with coastal export-crop valleys (the El Niño Costero zone) most exposed. (WRI) (Wikifarmer)
Central AmericaDrought risk is concentrated across the Dry Corridor, raising agricultural stress and crop-loss exposure for corn, coffee and sugar as high input prices compound the strain. (JRC)
CaribbeanEl Niño is suppressing Atlantic forecasts (TSR sees 11 named storms / 4 hurricanes / 1 major; NOAA 8–14 named storms, 55% below-normal), cutting cat pricing 15–20% — but warm Gulf and US East Coast SSTs sustain tail risk, making this a “redistribution of risk” rather than a simple reduction. (Artemis) (InsuraBeat)
LatAmNo major new nat cat event in the past 24 hours; only minor seismicity recorded across the Caribbean and Central America, with no parametric (CCRIF) triggers activated. (Earthquake Track)
Coming Up
21 JunColombiaPresidential runoff between de la Espriella and Cepeda; winner takes office 7 August. (AS/COA)
24 JunBrazilIBGE releases the IPCA-15 mid-month inflation print. (IBGE)
24 JunMexicoINEGI publishes first-half June CPI, the key read into Banxico’s decision. (Trading Economics)
26 JunMexicoBanxico monetary policy decision (currently 6.50%). (Banxico)
9 JulLatAmNOAA CPC monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion update. (NOAA CPC)
On the Radar
ColombiaThe 21 June runoff is the key Andean risk event: a Cepeda win would shift the region left and could reset US relations, while markets watch for fiscal continuity.
BrazilCopom’s hawkish pivot — no forward guidance and a 5.2% inflation projection alongside the cut — suggests the easing cycle is near its floor; the 24 June IPCA-15 is the next confirmation.
LatAmA strengthening El Niño into the Atlantic peak season is the central climate watch; parametric triggers and cat-bond pricing hinge on whether Atlantic suppression holds against elevated flood and Eastern Pacific risk.