Macro
LatAmCrude rose back above US$77/bbl as a US-Iran interim peace agreement improved Strait of Hormuz shipping conditions, erasing nearly all the price gains booked since the Middle East conflict began in late February — a relief for the region’s net oil importers but easing the windfall for exporters like Colombia, Mexico and Brazil. (Gulf News) (World Bank)
BrazilAnnual inflation rose to 4.72% in May (highest since September 2025), driven by energy and fuel at 8.90% on the Hormuz disruption; Copom cut the Selic 25bp to 14.25% on 17 June but turned hawkish, dropping its easing pledge and lifting the 2026 inflation projection to 5.2%, well above the 4.5% ceiling. (Trading Economics) (Rio Times)
MexicoBanxico remains on hold at 6.50% having signalled the end of its easing cycle, with headline inflation seen returning to the 3.0% target by Q3; the next policy decision lands 26 June against a backdrop of cut 2026 growth forecasts (~1.1%). (Mexico Business News) (Trading Economics)
ArgentinaMilei said the government is working to meet US$9.5bn of debt payments due in 2026 as net reserves stay only marginally positive and the BCRA faces pressure to accumulate US$4bn under IMF targets; the managed-band peso has yet to free-float. (Rio Times) (PIIE)
Financial & Insurance Markets
ColombiaThe natural-gas crisis is deepening as the Strait of Hormuz closure constrains global LNG supply just as domestic demand surges and local production declines, raising import-cost and supply-security risk for the Andean economy. (OilPrice)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC’s parametric risk pool stands at US$1.57bn of coverage limits (+9%), with new members and products added ahead of the Atlantic season and no triggers activated year-to-date. (Artemis)
LatAmMid-year catastrophe reinsurance pricing is falling 15–20% as El Niño suppresses Atlantic forecasts, extending a softening that saw January renewals drop risk-adjusted property-cat rates 14.7% and retrocession 16.5% — the sharpest since 2014 — favouring cedents into June/July. (InsuraBeat)
ArgentinaThe sovereign dollar curve still prices political “reversal risk”: a 2028 bond maturing after Milei’s term yielded 8.9% versus 5.1% on a comparable 2027 bond maturing before he leaves office. (PIIE)
Political
ColombiaThe 21 June runoff pits far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella (43.7% first round) against leftist Iván Cepeda (40.9%) in a highly polarized, too-close-to-call race that could redefine relations with the US; the winner takes office 7 August. (AS/COA) (CNN)
PeruThe presidential runoff count remains razor-thin, prolonging Andean political uncertainty; a concurrent left turn in Colombia would shift the regional balance. (AS/COA)
LatAmThe US-Iran interim peace agreement is de-escalating the oil-price tail risk that had threatened the region’s energy-inflation outlook, though analysts warn LNG supply pressures could persist for weeks if the Strait isn’t fully reopened. (Gulf News)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP is shifting from a rules-based regime to a risk-based, Solvency II-style framework and is working with EIOPA toward equivalence, while the new insurance contract law (in force since December 2025) tightens claims deadlines and transparency; reinsurance consultation 14/2025 continues to advance. (ICLG) (Skadden)
MexicoThe CNSF continues to run its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime, with weather-related property claims weighing increasingly on pricing and capital ahead of Banxico’s 26 June decision. (Skadden)
LatAmA new June 2026 review of the region’s prudential solvency regimes underscores an uneven landscape: IFRS 17 is live in Brazil and Mexico while Argentina and Chile have delayed adoption. (Skadden)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC’s 11 June diagnostic holds at an El Niño Advisory: conditions are present and expected to strengthen into Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance Dec–Feb), with a 63% chance of a “very strong” peak (Niño-3.4 >2.0°C) in November–January that would rank among the largest on record. (NOAA CPC) (NOAA)
AndesEl Niño Costero flooding has Peru under a state of emergency across hundreds of districts (20+ regions) for 60 days, with coastal export-crop valleys most exposed; Ecuador is also seeing intensified coastal flooding and river rises. (Washington Post) (Direct Relief)
Central AmericaDrought risk is concentrated across the Dry Corridor, raising agricultural stress and crop-loss exposure for corn, coffee and sugar as high input prices compound the strain. (JRC)
CaribbeanEl Niño is suppressing Atlantic forecasts (TSR sees 11 named storms / 4 hurricanes / 1 major; NOAA 8–14 named, 55% chance below normal), cutting cat pricing 15–20% — but warm Gulf and US East Coast SSTs sustain tail risk, making this a redistribution rather than a simple reduction of risk. (InsuraBeat) (Artemis)
LatAmNo major new nat cat event in the past 24 hours; only minor seismicity recorded across the Caribbean and Puerto Rico (2.1–3.8M in early June), with no parametric (CCRIF) triggers activated. (Earthquake Track)
Coming Up
21 JunColombiaPresidential runoff between de la Espriella and Cepeda; winner takes office 7 August. (AS/COA)
24 JunBrazilIBGE releases the IPCA-15 mid-month inflation print. (IBGE)
24 JunMexicoINEGI publishes first-half June CPI, the key read into Banxico’s decision. (Trading Economics)
26 JunMexicoBanxico monetary policy decision (currently 6.50%). (FXStreet)
9 JulLatAmNOAA CPC monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion update. (NOAA CPC)
On the Radar
LatAmWhether the US-Iran interim peace holds is the key swing factor for regional energy inflation: a relapse would re-spike oil and re-ignite Brazil’s fuel inflation and Colombia’s gas-supply squeeze.
ColombiaThe 21 June runoff is the central Andean risk event; a Cepeda win would shift the region left and reset US relations, while markets watch fiscal continuity.
LatAmA strengthening El Niño into the Atlantic peak season remains the central climate watch; parametric triggers and cat-bond pricing hinge on whether Atlantic suppression holds against elevated flood and Eastern Pacific risk.