Macro
MexicoBanxico held its policy rate at 6.50% on 25 June, ending two years of cuts and signalling it will stay on hold “for longer” while it watches inflation and growth; headline inflation eased to 3.55% and core to 4.12% by mid-June, with a Q2 rebound expected but meaningful downside growth risks flagged. (Bloomberg) (Mexico News Daily)
BrazilAfter Copom’s 17 June cut to 14.25% (third straight) with dropped easing guidance and a raised 5.2% 2026 inflation projection, Goldman Sachs sees the Selic falling to a 10.50% terminal rate by year-end as growth slows; IPCA is running near 4.7%. (Goldman Sachs)
ArgentinaDisinflation is holding (annual ~31.8%, monthly near 3%) and the peso has firmed ~13% in real terms since end-2025 as the central bank hit its US$10bn reserve target in five months; the IMF projects ~3.5% growth in 2026 though net reserves remain only marginally positive. (PIIE) (IMF)
LatAmGoldman Sachs expects the region’s top economies to grow ~1.9% in 2026 as Brazil slows, Mexico rebounds and Argentina climbs, with regional inflation easing toward ~3.7–4.3%; USMCA renegotiation remains the key downside risk and a potential source of regional volatility. (Goldman Sachs)
Financial & Insurance Markets
MexicoThe government finalised its 2026–2027 natural-disaster protection, roughly doubling its parametric catastrophe arrangement to about US$575m — a notable expansion of sovereign risk transfer ahead of the Eastern Pacific/Atlantic season. (Artemis)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC grew its parametric risk pool 9% to US$1.57bn of coverage limits and added new members (including Jamaica Public Service and Nevis Electricity) ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season; no triggers have been activated year-to-date. (Artemis)
LatAmFitch says catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities could widen the region’s insurance debt market, even as alternative reinsurance capital use in LAC stays constrained by transparency gaps and regulatory uncertainty. (Artemis) (Artemis)
ChileChilean pension funds are gaining appreciation for catastrophe bonds and beginning to allocate to the ILS asset class, a structural source of new demand for the region’s risk-transfer market. (Artemis)
Political
ColombiaTrump-backed Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won the 21 June runoff with 49.66% to Iván Cepeda’s 48.70% — a 0.96-point, ~250,830-vote margin, the narrowest in Colombian history; Cepeda conceded on 24 June and authorities declared the result on 25 June, while President Petro has alleged fraud and not acknowledged it. (CNN) (Wikipedia)
PeruWith more than 99.7% counted, Keiko Fujimori leads Roberto Sánchez 50.11% to 49.89% (~40,687 votes); Sánchez has called the vote “fraudulent” and says he will not recognise a Fujimori presidency, with the official tally due within 30 days of the 7 June runoff ahead of the 28 July inauguration. (Al Jazeera) (Atlantic Council)
VenezuelaContinued political upheaval remains a regional drag on sentiment and a swing factor in Goldman Sachs’ otherwise modest LAC growth outlook. (Goldman Sachs)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP consultation 14/2025, under the new Insurance Act in force since 11 December 2025, continues to reshape reinsurance, retrocession, coinsurance and FX rules; local reinsurers retroceding more than 70% of written premiums had to file technical justifications by 31 March 2026. (Chambers) (DAC Beachcroft)
MexicoBanxico’s hold at 6.50% caps its easing cycle; the CNSF, an IAIS member, continues to run the LISF regime designed to be broadly equivalent to Solvency II. (Skadden) (Bloomberg)
LatAmSkadden’s June 2026 survey of prudential solvency regimes across Latin America underscores a regional convergence toward Solvency II–style capital frameworks (Mexico’s LISF, Brazil’s evolving SUSEP rules), a positive for reinsurance counterparty quality. (Skadden)
ColombiaBanRep’s next rate decision lands 30 June with the policy rate at 11.25% amid still-elevated inflation; a board governance standoff continues to cloud the policy path into a new administration. (Banco de la República)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA’s El Niño Advisory remains in effect with conditions strengthening: the Niño-3.4 anomaly rose to +0.94°C in May and the latest weekly index reached +1.7°C (mid-June), with a 62% chance of El Niño persisting through JJA and a 63% chance of a “very strong” (>2.0°C) peak in Sep–Nov before easing into 2027. (NOAA CPC) (Climate Impact Company)
Central AmericaThe dominant El Niño signal points to drought risk for maize and rice across Central America, the Caribbean and Colombia, plus dryness in the northern Andes and the Brazilian Amazon/Pantanal — an emerging crop-loss exposure for agricultural insurers. (WRI) (JRC)
AndesAbove-average rainfall is forecast for Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia, raising coastal flooding and landslide risk; insurers are monitoring early dry-season signals in the Peruvian sierra that historically precede crop-loss claims. (Rio Times) (WMO/UN News)
CaribbeanEl Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity (CSU’s latest call: 11 named storms, 2 majors) while elevating Eastern Pacific activity; CCRIF reports no parametric triggers year-to-date, easing near-term Caribbean insured-loss expectations. (Artemis)
LatAmNo major nat cat events in the region in the past 24 hours; global Q1 2026 insured cat losses were ~US$20bn, 26% below the 10-year average, while Hurricane Melissa (Oct 2025) remains the costliest recent regional event at ~US$2.5bn insured. (Risk & Insurance) (Munich Re)
Coming Up
30 JunColombiaBanRep monetary policy decision; rate held at 11.25% at the last meeting amid elevated inflation. (Banco de la República)
3 JulColombiaBanRep publishes the minutes of its June board meeting. (Banco de la República)
7 JulPeruOfficial runoff tally due to be finalised (within 30 days of the 7 June vote) ahead of the 28 July inauguration. (Atlantic Council)
9 JulMexicoBanxico publishes the minutes of its 25 June hold; NOAA CPC’s monthly ENSO diagnostic is also due mid-month. (Banxico)
10 JulBrazilIBGE releases the June IPCA inflation print, the key gauge for Copom’s next move. (IBGE)
On the Radar
PeruPost-election instability risk: Sánchez’s refusal to recognise a Fujimori win, against a razor-thin ~40,000-vote margin, could trigger contestation and protests before the 28 July inauguration.
LatAmA strengthening, potentially record-class El Niño into Sep–Nov is the dominant climate-risk theme: watch for crop stress (corn, rice, coffee) in Central America/Colombia, flooding in the Andes, and parametric-trigger implications even as Atlantic hurricane risk is suppressed.
MexicoUSMCA renegotiation uncertainty remains the key macro tail risk, with potential spillovers to the peso and regional sentiment.