Macro
BrazilInflation re-accelerated to 4.72% y/y in May (from 4.39% in April), yet Copom delivered a third consecutive 25bp cut to 14.25% on 17 June; lingering Middle East fuel/food risk kept the move cautious, with the Selic seen drifting toward ~13% by year-end. (Trading Economics) (Agência Brasil)
MexicoBanxico’s 25bp cut to 6.50% in May likely marked the end of the easing cycle that began in March 2024; headline inflation around 4.45% remains above the 3% target, which the bank still expects to reach in Q2 2027. (Trading Economics) (Trading Economics — Banxico)
ArgentinaThe IMF completed its second EFF review on 21 May, unlocking ~US$1bn; growth is projected near 3.5% for 2026 with end-period inflation around 25%, but net reserves remain only marginally positive against a US$4bn accumulation target ahead of October midterms. (IMF) (PIIE)
LatAmThe region is set for slower but still positive 2026 growth as easing inflation lets most central banks cut; BofA sees Fed cuts unlocking more aggressive easing room in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. (Yahoo Finance / BofA)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmFitch holds a “deteriorating” outlook on global reinsurance for 2026 on abundant capacity (US$735bn capital, record US$121bn alternative); flat-renewal discounts of 5–30% across property, terrorism and health point to a softer backdrop for LAC renewals. (Actuarial Post)
LatAmThe region’s climate protection gap is stuck near 81% (only ~19% of losses insured); parametric covers are now treated as mainstream complements to indemnity rather than experiments, with new capital from the Middle East and Asia seeking regional diversification. (Insurance Business) (Intelligent Insurer)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC has grown its parametric risk pool 9% to US$1.57bn of coverage limits ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season, while Jamaica is negotiating to expand cover (including a coastal/fisheries product) atop its US$200m IBRD cat bond. (Artemis — CCRIF) (Artemis — Jamaica cat bond)
Political
ColombiaFar-right Abelardo de la Espriella won the 21 June presidential runoff with 49.66% to Iván Cepeda’s 48.70%; the National Electoral Council confirmed the result on 24 June, ending months of acute uncertainty and reshaping the 2026–2030 fiscal, security and regulatory agenda. (AS/COA) (Wikipedia)
ArgentinaPolitical risk is concentrated on the October midterms; earlier dollarization and reserve losses forced tighter policy and unprecedented U.S. Treasury ESF support, even as legislative wins (2026 Budget, Labor Modernization, Fiscal Innocence laws) improved governance capacity. (Americas Quarterly) (CFR)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP’s reinsurance/retrocession reforms under the new Insurance Act continue to draw industry attention, including a contested proposal touching claims-control clauses and filing requirements for local reinsurers retroceding large premium shares — a live watch item for cedants and retrocessionaires. (ICLG) (Skadden)
LatAmSkadden’s June review highlights the region’s continued convergence toward risk-based, Solvency II-style prudential regimes, with Mexico’s CNSF (an IAIS member) and Brazil’s SUSEP/CNSP among the most advanced supervisors. (Skadden) (Latin Lawyer — CNSF)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA’s June ENSO update carries an El Niño Advisory: conditions are present and strengthening, with the weekly Niño-3.4 index at +1.7°C (mid-June) and 100% probability of El Niño persisting June–November; the ensemble points to peak intensity in SON 2026 and a ~63% chance of a “very strong” event (≥+2.0°C). (NOAA CPC) (IRI)
AndesEl Niño is splitting risk across the Pacific coast: intense rain, flooding and landslides for coastal Peru and Ecuador versus highland water stress, while severe dryness threatens maize and rice across Central America, the Caribbean and Colombia — early signals agricultural and crop insurers are tracking. (Rio Times) (UN News)
CaribbeanA robust El Niño is expected to suppress the 2026 Atlantic season via elevated wind shear; The Weather Channel projects a below-average 12 named storms / 6 hurricanes / 2 majors, easing Caribbean insured-loss exposure even as US landfall risk persists. (Artemis) (Wikipedia — 2026 Atlantic season)
LatAmNo major nat cat events reported in the region in the past 24 hours, and CCRIF has not flagged a new parametric trigger; next key monitoring windows are the Eastern Pacific hurricane peak and Atlantic-season build into August–October. (Artemis — Atlantic season)
Coming Up
9 JulMexicoINEGI releases June CPI; watch whether headline holds near 4.4–4.5% above Banxico’s band. (INEGI)
9 JulLatAmNOAA CPC issues its monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion; key for hurricane-season and crop-risk positioning. (NOAA CPC)
10 JulBrazilIBGE publishes June IPCA after May’s re-acceleration to 4.72%. (IBGE)
10 JulPeruBCRP monetary policy decision (second-Thursday standard calendar). (BCRP)
29 JulBrazilCopom rate decision (two-day meeting 29–30 Jul); next test of the cautious easing path. (BCB Copom)
On the Radar
AndesCoastal El Niño rainfall building through the southern-hemisphere winter could trigger early flood/landslide claims in northern Peru and coastal Ecuador before the season peaks.
ColombiaTransition under president-elect de la Espriella: watch early signals on fiscal stance, the BanRep board, and any shift in the insurance/financial regulatory agenda.
CaribbeanA potentially “very strong” El Niño suppressing Atlantic activity is supportive for cat-bond and parametric pricing, but basis risk remains if any landfalling system breaks the suppressed-season-expectation.