Macro
MexicoHeadline inflation fell more than expected to about 3.6% y/y in the first half of June, reinforcing Banxico’s 25 Jun unanimous decision to hold the policy rate at 6.50% and signal an extended pause after ending its easing cycle. (Central Banking) (Rio Times)
BrazilMay inflation rose to 4.7% y/y, keeping the Selic finely balanced after Copom’s 17 Jun cut to 14.25%; Focus survey expectations remain above target at 4.9% (2026) and 4.0% (2027). (Capital Economics)
LatAmGoldman Sachs expects the region’s largest economies to grow roughly 1.9% in 2026 with regional inflation near 4.3%, as Brazil, Mexico and Chile move toward slow rate cuts amid upheaval in Venezuela. (Goldman Sachs)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmFitch says catastrophe bonds and Brazil’s new Insurance Risk Letters (LRS) are widening the region’s insurance debt market, with the LAC reinsurance market sized at US$18–22bn and ceded premiums set to keep growing over the next 12–18 months. (Artemis) (Business Insurance)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC grew its parametric risk pool 9% to US$1.57bn of coverage limits and added new members ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season, with no triggers activated year-to-date. (Artemis)
LatAmThe protection gap remains stark: only ~10% of US$21.8bn in regional 2024 losses were insured, and global Q1 2026 insured nat-cat losses of US$20bn ran 26% below the 10-year average, leaving reinsurers well-capitalised. (Risk & Insurance)
Political
ColombiaAbelardo de la Espriella’s narrow 21 Jun runoff win over Iván Cepeda (49.66% vs 48.70%) was confirmed by the National Electoral Council on 24 Jun, ending acute electoral uncertainty and signalling a rightward pivot welcomed by regional leaders. (Wikipedia) (AS/COA)
BrazilThe October election remains a coin-flip, with 80-year-old President Lula seeking a fourth term and Bolsonaro-aligned candidates tied in second-round polling — a key source of fiscal and market uncertainty into H2. (AS/COA)
VenezuelaContinued upheaval remains a regional drag on growth and a political-risk watch item, per Goldman Sachs’ latest regional outlook. (Goldman Sachs)
Regulatory
LatAmThe IAIS’s latest analysis keeps NatCat protection gaps front-and-centre for the region, where insurance penetration sits at just ~2.9% of GDP versus a 6.8% global average, underscoring the supervisory case for risk-transfer expansion. (IAIS GIMAR) (iNLIP)
BrazilSUSEP’s reinsurance and retrocession reforms under the new Insurance Contract Act (consultation 14/2025) stay a live cedant watch item, part of a broader regional convergence toward Solvency II-style capital regimes led by Brazil and Mexico’s CNSF. (Artemis)
LatAmThe IAIS continues to flag stretched supervisory resources across emerging markets in its February 2026 FSI Insights, relevant as LAC regulators implement IFRS 17 and risk-based capital. (IAIS FSI Insights)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmEl Niño conditions are present and intensifying: the weekly Niño-3.4 index reached +1.7°C around 17 Jun, with NOAA/IRI assigning ~100% El Niño probability through SON 2026 and a 63% chance of a “very strong” event (≥+2.0°C) peaking in Sep–Nov. (NOAA CPC) (IRI) (Weather West)
Central AmericaThe dominant impact pattern places drought across Central America, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and the Pantanal, while pushing excess rainfall into the southern cone (southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, NE Argentina); the IFRC has released CHF 1.2m in anticipatory drought funding. (Rio Times) (IFRC)
PeruThe Pacific coasts of Peru and Ecuador face the combined El Niño risk of intense coastal rainfall, flooding and landslides alongside highland water stress — the dual pattern disaster managers now treat as the baseline expectation. (WRI)
CaribbeanEl Niño’s wind-shear suppression underpins NOAA’s forecast for a ~55% chance of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, helping push mid-year cat reinsurance pricing down 15–20%; CCRIF’s US$1.57bn pool has seen no triggers YTD. (Artemis)
LatAmNo major nat-cat event with reported insured loss occurred in the region in the past 24 hours; global Q1 2026 insured losses of US$20bn remained 26% below the 10-year average. (Risk & Insurance)
Coming Up
7 JulColombiaDANE releases June CPI, a key read for BanRep’s policy path. (DANE)
9 JulMexicoINEGI publishes June CPI and Banxico releases the minutes of its 25 Jun hold. (INEGI)
9 JulLatAmNOAA CPC issues its monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion, the next official El Niño update. (NOAA CPC)
10 JulBrazilIBGE releases June IPCA inflation ahead of the 4–5 Aug Copom meeting. (IBGE)
10 JulPeruBCRP announces its monetary policy rate decision. (BCRP)
On the Radar
LatAmEl Niño’s potential escalation toward a strong-to-historic peak in Sep–Nov is the dominant climate-risk theme: watch for parametric/cat-bond repricing, sovereign cover top-ups (Mexico recently doubled its parametric to ~US$575m), and early crop-loss signals in Central America and the Andes.
PeruThe razor-thin presidential runoff result (Fujimori vs Sánchez) remains contested and unresolved, an ongoing Andean political-risk overhang.
BrazilThe October general election shaping up as a coin-flip between Lula and Bolsonaro-aligned challengers points to rising fiscal and FX volatility through H2 2026.