Macro
MexicoThe USMCA’s six-year joint review formally opens today; Washington is treating it as a genuine renegotiation (tighter rules of origin to limit Chinese content, higher auto US-content thresholds, labor enforcement), keeping the ~$873bn bilateral goods relationship the region’s biggest macro swing factor. (FastBull)
MexicoBanxico lifted its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.6% (from 1.1%) while holding the rate at 6.50%; a Reuters poll out today sees the peso range-bound around 18.70/USD into year-end on recovery hopes. (Argus, 933 The Drive)
BrazilCopom’s June cut to 14.25% (third straight 25bp move) sits against 2026 inflation expectations near 4.1%; Goldman sees LAC’s top economies growing ~1.9% in 2026 as Brazil slows and Mexico rebounds. (Capital Economics, Goldman Sachs)
ColombiaCore inflation still running above 6% keeps BanRep boxed in ahead of its late-July decision, and Capital Economics reiterates the peso as the region’s likely worst performer, seen near 4,600/USD by end-2026. (Investing.com)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmAt the 1 July renewals, Latin American property-cat XoL rates fell 15–20% as Bermuda, London and MGA capacity deepened the supply base, handing cedents leverage on both price and programme design. (Artemis, Business Insurance)
LatAmParametric products are moving from niche to mainstream in the region, with over-placement, rising ceding commissions and appetite migration into casualty/specialty all signs that abundant capacity is reshaping structures, not just pricing. (Artemis)
ArgentinaFitch’s May upgrade to B- (improved fiscal/external balances, reform progress) still anchors sentiment; six LAC sovereigns — Chile, Uruguay, Peru, Panama, Mexico, Paraguay — hold investment grade, leaving Argentina and Brazil below it. (Buenos Aires Herald)
Political
PeruThe electoral process closed on 30 June confirming Keiko Fujimori as president-elect with 50.135% over Roberto Sánchez, ending weeks of legal challenges; she inherits thin legislative majorities and a chamber prone to removing presidents. (Ynet)
ColombiaPresident-elect Abelardo de la Espriella takes office 7 August, pledging to reverse Petro’s drug policy and move the embassy to Jerusalem, part of a broader rightward turn across Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru. (J-Post)
VenezuelaPost-quake instability compounds the region’s political tail risk as US Southern Command surges relief assets and Colombia sends rescuers; humanitarian strain remains acute (see Nat Cat). (CNN)
Regulatory
LatAmSkadden’s June review confirms steady regional convergence toward Solvency II-style, risk-based capital regimes, adopted at different speeds across jurisdictions with local adaptations. (Skadden)
BrazilSUSEP continues implementing the new Insurance Contract Law and reinsurance/retrocession reforms (consultation 14/2025), a live watch item for cedants on claims-control clauses. (Skadden)
MexicoCNSF, an IAIS member, runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework; IAIS continues to flag NatCat protection gaps and stretched supervisory resources across the region (penetration ~2.9% of GDP). (Latin Lawyer)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC/IRI keep El Niño present and strengthening: the weekly Niño-3.4 index reached +1.7°C in mid-June and models show ~96% odds it persists through the Dec 2026–Feb 2027 winter, raising the prospect of a strong-to-”super” event. (NOAA CPC, IRI)
AndesThe expected footprint pairs coastal flooding and landslides in Peru and Ecuador with drought across Central America, Colombia, the northern Andes and the Brazilian Amazon/Pantanal, while excess rain shifts to southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and NE Argentina. (WRI, NASA)
BrazilAgricultural stress is building in coffee (2025-26 output already down ~8% on prior drought, stocks near historic lows), maize and the Cerrado, a compounding supply risk for soft commodities if the event intensifies. (Wikifarmer)
VenezuelaThe 24 June twin quakes (Mw 7.2 foreshock, 7.5 mainshock) have killed over 1,900 with ~800 buildings collapsed across La Guaira and Caracas; with insurance penetration minimal, insured losses will be a small fraction of a large economic loss. (Wikipedia, CNN)
CaribbeanEl Niño’s tendency to suppress Atlantic activity while boosting the E-Pacific remains the mid-year backdrop; CCRIF’s parametric pool stands near US$1.57bn with no triggers activated year-to-date. (Artemis)
Coming Up
9 Jul 2026MexicoINEGI releases June CPI, a key read on whether disinflation toward ~3.5% holds and Banxico’s pause extends.
9 Jul 2026LatAmNOAA CPC issues its monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion, next official update on El Niño strength and duration.
10 Jul 2026BrazilIBGE publishes June IPCA, watched for services stickiness after Copom’s June cut to 14.25%.
29–30 Jul 2026BrazilCopom rate decision; markets weigh whether the easing path continues from 14.25%.
31 Jul 2026ColombiaBanRep rate decision with a fresh Monetary Policy Report, amid above-6% core inflation.
On the Radar
MexicoThe USMCA review opening today is the single largest regional risk vector: rules-of-origin and auto-content demands could reshape nearshoring flows, the peso and insurers’ trade-credit and political-risk books.
LatAmA strengthening El Niño into a “super” event would test parametric triggers and cat-bond attachment assumptions just as LatAm cat pricing softens 15–20% — a widening gap between falling rates and rising physical risk.
VenezuelaPost-quake humanitarian and political fallout, layered on existing instability, is a spillover risk for neighboring Colombia and Caribbean logistics.