Macro
MexicoHeadline inflation eased to 3.55% by mid-June (core 4.12%), cementing Banxico’s 25 Jun hold at 6.50% and an extended pause; softer prints keep any near-term move off the table and the peso holds near 18.8/USD. (Goldman Sachs)
BrazilThe Selic sits at 14.25% after the 17 Jun cut, but May IPCA re-accelerated to 4.72% (above target) with 2026 expectations near 5.3%, leaving Copom balanced ahead of its 29–30 Jul decision. (Trading Economics)
ColombiaInflation stayed sticky at 5.84% in May, keeping BanRep cautious and its easing path shallow versus regional peers, with the peso hovering near 4,000/USD. (AS/COA)
LatAmGoldman sees the region’s top seven economies growing ~1.9% in 2026, modest by historical standards, with Venezuela’s upheaval the main downside swing factor. (Goldman Sachs)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmLatin America property-cat reinsurance rates fell 15–20% at the 1 July renewals as Bermuda, London and MGA capacity expanded a buyer-friendly market, with parametrics moving from niche to mainstream. (Reinsurance News, Insurance Business)
LatAmWith property-cat capacity comfortably placed, appetite has migrated into casualty and specialty lines while structured and low-attaching layers draw more interest — abundant capacity keeps the cycle favouring cedents. (Commercial Risk)
VenezuelaThe 24 Jun back-to-back M7.2/M7.5 quakes left an estimated US$6.7bn in damage in a country with minimal insurance penetration, a stark illustration of the region’s protection gap despite renewed market interest. (Insurance Business)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric pool stands at US$1.57bn (up 9%) with no triggers YTD; new members (Jamaica Public Service, Nevis Electricity) joined ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season and Jamaica added the COAST fisheries product. (Artemis)
Political
BrazilFirst-round presidential vote is set for 4 October (runoff 25 Oct); Datafolha has Lula 41% vs Flávio Bolsonaro 31% (47–43 in a runoff), keeping the region’s key 2026 political-risk event close. (AS/COA, Al Jazeera)
ColombiaThe right’s Abelardo de la Espriella won the 21 June runoff over Iván Cepeda and takes office 7 August, extending the regional rightward turn as South America’s centre of gravity shifts right. (AS/COA)
ArgentinaMilei enters H2 with a legislative boost supporting his reform agenda and market sentiment; the IMF programme anchors a ~3.5% growth path into October midterms. (Buenos Aires Times)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP’s consultation 14/2025 on reinsurance/retrocession cessions advances under the new Insurance Act (in force since 11 Dec 2025); local reinsurers retroceding >70% of written premiums must file a technical justification. (DAC Beachcroft, Lexology)
MexicoBanxico’s extended 6.50% pause and the CNSF’s Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework anchor Mexico’s leadership in LAC’s convergence toward Solvency II-style capital regimes. (Chambers)
LatAmRegion-wide, insurance supervisors continue moving toward Solvency II-style regimes and EIOPA equivalence, with Brazil’s SUSEP/CNSP and Mexico’s CNSF setting the pace. (ICLG)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC maintains an El Niño Advisory: the weekly Niño-3.4 index reached +1.7°C in mid-June, with the ensemble showing a strong, consistent signal to intensify toward a moderate-to-strong event peaking Sep–Nov 2026 (13 of 24 models see ≥+2.0°C). (NOAA CPC, IRI)
AndesExpected impacts sharpen: drought/heat across Central America, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and Pantanal, versus flood and landslide risk along the Peru/Ecuador Pacific coast and excess rainfall in the southern cone (southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, NE Argentina). (Crisis24, WRI)
BrazilCoffee traders face asymmetric supply-tightening from El Niño dryness/heat stress, though record recent harvests cushion the 2026 outlook; drought also lifts river-level, wildfire and pasture-loss risks across the Amazon and Pantanal. (Rio Times)
CaribbeanEl Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity slightly below the 30-year average, softening cat-bond expectations; CCRIF’s US$1.57bn pool remains untriggered YTD and investors keep a close watch as the season develops. (The Insurer, Artemis)
VenezuelaNo new major nat cat in the past 24 hours; the 24 Jun M7.2/M7.5 quakes (~US$6.7bn damage, largely uninsured) remain the region’s standing loss event. (Insurance Business)
Coming Up
9 JulMexicoINEGI publishes June CPI, a key input to Banxico’s extended-pause guidance.
9 JulLatAmNOAA CPC / IRI monthly ENSO update, watched for confirmation the El Niño keeps strengthening.
10 JulBrazilIBGE releases June IPCA, gauging whether inflation stays above the 4.5% target ceiling.
30 JulBrazilCopom rate decision (Selic 14.25%), with markets weighing another cut against sticky inflation.
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision plus quarterly Monetary Policy Report, with easing seen shallow on 5.84% inflation.
On the Radar
LatAmEl Niño’s projected Sep–Nov peak is the dominant slow-burn risk: agricultural stress (coffee, corn, soy, sugar), Andean flood/landslide exposure and drought-driven wildfire/hydro risk could all firm parametric demand into H2.
BrazilThe 4 Oct first round (Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro) is a coin-flip; polling swings and any fresh legal developments around the Bolsonaro camp are the key regional political-risk driver to watch.
VenezuelaPost-quake instability and the country’s near-total protection gap remain a regional drag and a reminder of LAC’s ~10% insured-loss ratio on 2024 catastrophes.