Macro
MexicoInflation has ticked back up toward the ~3.9% area in early 2026, cementing Banxico’s extended pause after its 25 Jun hold; the peso holds near recent ranges (≈18.8/USD) as markets await June CPI on 9 Jul. (Mastercard Economics, Trading Economics)
BrazilThe Selic sits at 14.25% after the June cut; the real has firmed against regional peers (MXN/BRL near 0.299, a 30-day low for the peso), and J.P. Morgan still sees up to ~250bp of Copom easing through 2026 despite sticky above-target inflation. (Agência Brasil, J.P. Morgan)
ColombiaColombia remains the region’s inflation outlier: a 23% minimum-wage hike drove a 100bp increase in January and further tightening is expected, keeping BanRep cautious versus easing peers. (J.P. Morgan)
LatAmConsensus sees regional inflation easing toward ~3.7–4.3% in 2026 with modest growth (~1.9% for the top economies), as Brazil, Mexico and Chile are expected to keep or resume cutting while Venezuela’s upheaval stays the main downside swing factor. (Goldman Sachs, Mastercard Economics)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmHowden Re’s read on the completed 1 July renewals holds: property-cat XoL rate reductions of 15–20% amid abundant capacity, with Bermuda, London and MGA markets deepening supply and cedents keeping leverage on price and structure. (Global Reinsurance, Reinsurance News)
LatAmParametric products have moved from niche to a broadly evaluated option and Aon reports growing use of facultative and casualty sidecars — structural innovation is the defining feature of this soft cycle. (Intelligent Insurer, Insurance Business)
VenezuelaA week on, the 24 Jun M7.2/M7.5 quakes are confirmed as a major protection-gap event: ~US$6.7bn in damage with only ~US$1.5bn insured, and a humanitarian toll now above 2,290 dead and 11,200 injured. (Insurance Business, NPR)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric pool stands at US$1.57bn (up 9%) with no triggers YTD, backed by the World Bank cat bond and new utility/fisheries members ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season. (Artemis, CCRIF)
Political
ColombiaPresident-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, the hard-right winner of the 21 June runoff by the slimmest margin in Colombian history, takes office 7 August amid Petro’s contested fraud claims — a key marker of the region’s rightward turn. (AS/COA)
PeruKeiko Fujimori narrowly won the late-June runoff over Roberto Sánchez, extending the conservative wave across the Andes alongside Chile’s Kast and Colombia’s de la Espriella. (The Media Line)
BrazilThe 4 October first round (runoff 25 Oct) remains the region’s marquee political-risk event, with polling showing Lula and the Bolsonaro camp effectively tied. (AS/COA)
VenezuelaPost-Maduro, interim president Delcy Rodríguez governs a country compounding political fragility with earthquake recovery, keeping Venezuela the region’s dominant instability risk. (AS/COA)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP’s consultation on reinsurance/retrocession cessions advances under the new Insurance Act (in force since 11 Dec 2025), with local reinsurers retroceding >70% of written premiums required to file a technical justification. (DAC Beachcroft)
MexicoBanxico’s extended 6.50% pause and the CNSF’s Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework keep Mexico at the front of LAC’s convergence toward risk-based capital regimes. (Chambers)
LatAmRegion-wide, supervisors continue moving toward Solvency II-style regimes and EIOPA equivalence, with Brazil’s SUSEP/CNSP and Mexico’s CNSF setting the pace. (ICLG)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC maintains its El Niño Advisory: El Niño probabilities are assigned at ~100% through SON 2026, with 13 of 24 models pointing to a very strong event (Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) peaking Sep–Nov and a 63% chance of exceeding +2.0°C — no La Niña risk in the outlook. (NOAA CPC, IRI)
AndesExpected impacts stay bifurcated: drought and heat across Central America, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and Pantanal, versus flooding and landslide risk along the Peru/Ecuador Pacific coast and excess rainfall in the southern cone (southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, NE Argentina). (Crisis24, WRI)
BrazilAgricultural exposure sharpens as a very strong El Niño builds: coffee, corn, soy and sugar face asymmetric supply-tightening from Amazon/Pantanal dryness and heat stress, while hydropower-dependent Andean states risk generation shortfalls. (Rio Times)
CaribbeanEl Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity slightly below the 30-year average, softening near-term cat-bond expectations; CCRIF’s US$1.57bn pool remains untriggered as the season develops. (Artemis)
VenezuelaNo new major nat cat in the past 24 hours; the 24 Jun M7.2/M7.5 quakes (~US$6.7bn damage, largely uninsured, 2,290+ dead) remain the region’s standing loss event. (Wikipedia, CNN)
Coming Up
9 JulMexicoINEGI publishes June CPI, a key input to Banxico’s extended-pause guidance.
9 JulLatAmNOAA CPC / IRI monthly ENSO update, watched for confirmation the El Niño keeps strengthening.
10 JulBrazilIBGE releases June IPCA, gauging whether inflation stays above the 4.5% target ceiling.
30 JulBrazilCopom rate decision (Selic 14.25%), with markets weighing another cut against sticky inflation.
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision plus quarterly Monetary Policy Report, with easing seen shallow on high inflation.
On the Radar
LatAmA very strong El Niño building toward a Sep–Nov peak is the dominant slow-burn risk: agricultural stress (coffee, corn, soy, sugar), Andean flood/landslide exposure and drought-driven wildfire/hydro shortfalls could all firm parametric demand into H2.
VenezuelaEarthquake recovery layered on post-Maduro political fragility keeps Venezuela the region’s key instability driver and a stark reminder of LAC’s protection gap (only ~US$1.5bn of ~US$6.7bn in losses insured).
BrazilThe 4 Oct first round is a coin-flip; polling swings and any fresh legal developments around the Bolsonaro camp are the key regional political-risk driver to watch into H2.