LatAmSell-side outlooks stay constructive for H2: Morgan Stanley holds its “bull case” for Latam on easing inflation and rate cuts, while Goldman sees the big economies growing ~1.9% in 2026 despite Venezuela-driven upheaval and USMCA-review uncertainty. (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs)
BrazilGrowth is set to slow to ~1.5% in 2026 from 2.2% in 2025, with the Selic held at 14.25% on unanchored inflation expectations; a fresh US 50% tariff on Brazilian animal protein (avian-flu pretext) is a new trade drag into the October election. (KPMG)
MexicoBanxico’s extended pause at 6.50% holds as inflation sits near the top of band (~3.9%); AI-linked exports are booming but domestic confidence is weak and the USMCA six-year review remains the key downside swing factor. (Central Banking)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmThe 1 July renewal closed buyer-favourable: Howden Re reports property-cat XoL rate cuts of 15–20% amid abundant Bermuda, London and MGA capacity, over-placement, and richer ceding commissions, with parametrics moving mainstream. (Howden Re / Reinsurance News, Insurance Business)
VenezuelaThe 24 June twin quakes left an estimated US$6.7bn in damage with only ~US$1.5bn insured, a stark illustration of the region’s <5%-of-GDP penetration and the protection gap that keeps reinsurers interested despite soft pricing. (Insurance Business)
LatAmAM Best keeps the LAC reinsurance segment outlook “attractive despite soft market,” while S&P maintains a stable global reinsurance outlook with pricing expected to decline further into 2027 renewals. (AM Best)
Political
ColombiaFar-right Abelardo de la Espriella (49.66% vs Cepeda’s 48.70% in the 21 June runoff) takes office 7 August, extending the regional rightward turn but on a wafer-thin, deeply polarised mandate. (Al Jazeera)
ChilePresident-elect José Antonio Kast (inaugurated March) has pledged flexible labour laws, corporate tax cuts and lighter regulation, reinforcing the pro-business swing across the Southern Cone. (AS/COA)
BrazilThe 4 October first round (Lula vs a fragmented right) stays a coin-flip and the dominant political-risk event for regional markets into year-end. (Atlantic Council)
Regulatory
MexicoBanxico’s 25 June hold at 6.50% formally marks the end of the easing cycle that began in March 2024; CNSF continues to run its Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework. (Banxico)
BrazilSUSEP’s reinsurance/retrocession reforms under the new Insurance Act (consultation 14/2025) remain a live cedant watch item as LAC converges toward risk-based, Solvency II-style capital regimes. ([SUSEP, standing item, 6 Jul 2026])
ColombiaBanRep’s next rate decision lands 31 July, the region’s key monetary-policy fixture this month given Colombia’s sticky ~5.8% inflation. (Banco de la República)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmENSO is in an emerging El Niño: the weekly Niño-3.4 index reached ~+1.7 °C in mid-June, and NOAA CPC/IRI put a ~96% chance of El Niño persisting through DJF 2026-27, with models pointing to a possibly strong-to-”super” event peaking in SON 2026. (NOAA CPC, WRI)
Central AmericaThe dominant El Niño pattern skews toward drought across Central America, Colombia, the northern Andes and the Brazilian Amazon/Pantanal, with maize, rice and coffee the most exposed crops; the JRC warns of a “potentially historic” humanitarian toll. (JRC)
Peru / EcuadorThe Pacific coast faces the flip side: intense coastal rainfall, flooding and landslide risk building through the season, even as highland agriculture contends with water stress. (Rio Times)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC (CEO Isaac Anthony frames the region as in a “super El Niño cycle”) has grown its parametric pool 9% to US$1.57bn ahead of an El Niño-suppressed Atlantic season, with no triggers YTD; parametric and cat-bond capacity keeps expanding (Jamaica’s US$200m IBRD cat bond drew 25 investors). (Artemis)
VenezuelaNo new material nat-cat event in the past 24 hours; the 24 June M7.5/M7.2 quakes (>3,300 dead, ~US$6.7bn damage, only ~US$1.5bn insured) remain the region’s active loss story. (CNN)
Coming Up
9 JulMexicoINEGI releases June CPI; watch whether headline holds near the top of the 3%±1 band. (INEGI)
9 JulLatAmNOAA CPC issues its monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion, the next official read on El Niño strength. (NOAA CPC)
10 JulBrazilIBGE publishes June IPCA, a key input to the 28–29 July Copom. (IBGE)
28–29 JulBrazilCopom decides on the Selic (currently 14.25%); guidance in focus after inflation re-acceleration. (BCB)
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision amid sticky ~5.8% inflation and a fiscal-credibility overhang. (Banco de la República)
On the Radar
LatAmEl Niño strengthening into a possible “super” event is the region’s slow-burn tail risk: drought-driven agricultural stress (coffee, maize, sugar) versus Andean flooding, with parametric triggers and CCRIF/sovereign pools the first line of insured response.
BrazilThe US 50% protein tariff plus an October coin-flip election is a compounding trade-and-politics risk that could reprice the real and BRL-denominated cat/credit exposures.
LatAmSoftening reinsurance pricing (–15–20% at 1 July) against a widening protection gap keeps the structural question live: whether cheaper capacity actually closes the gap or simply thins cedant margins before the next major loss.