Macro
Brazilthe real held firm with USD/BRL near 5.145 (up ~1.1% over the past month, +6.3% over 12 months) on a wide Selic-vs-Fed differential, the Selic parked at 14.25% after the 17 Jun cut and J.P. Morgan still eyeing up to ~250bp of easing into the October election. (Trading Economics, J.P. Morgan)
LatAmsell-side stays constructive at mid-year: regional inflation is seen easing to ~4.3% for 2026 with Brazil, Mexico and Chile expected to cut further, while BofA models year-end rates of 11.25% (Brazil), 7.00% (Colombia) and 6.75% (Mexico). (Investing.com, Mastercard)
Mexicotrading was thin through the US holiday week, the IPC drifting near 67,060; Banxico’s extended pause at 6.50% holds into next week’s June CPI print, with inflation hovering ~3.9%. (Trading Economics)
Colombiaremains the region’s inflation outlier after January’s 100bp hike triggered by a 23% minimum-wage rise, keeping BanRep tight while its 31 Jul decision looms over sticky ~5.8% inflation. (Investing.com)
Financial & Insurance Markets
CaribbeanCCRIF grew its parametric risk pool 9% to US$1.57bn of coverage limits (from US$1.44bn) ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season, adding members including Jamaica Public Service and the Nevis Electricity Company and expanding its fisheries (COAST) product; the pool remains untriggered YTD with US$140m of reinsurance backing. (Artemis)
LatAmthe buyer-favourable tone from 1 July renewals persists, with LatAm property-cat rates down ~15–20% and parametric structures going mainstream; a benign start to 2026 supports the soft market, with global Q1 insured cat losses of ~US$20bn running 26% below the 10-year average. (Risk & Insurance)
Argentinathe Merval and peso held their footing in quiet early-July trade as improving Milei sentiment underpins country-risk compression. (Rio Times)
Political
Brazilthe 4 Oct first round (Lula seeking a fourth term vs Flávio Bolsonaro) remains the region’s marquee political risk, with security topping voter concerns and election-year fiscal pressure complicating the rate path. (AS/COA)
Venezuelafollowing the 24 Jun earthquakes that damaged Maiquetía airport and La Guaira’s port, SOUTHCOM deployed Marines and aircraft and effectively took over key airfield and port functions, deepening sovereignty concerns six months after the US strike that ended Maduro’s rule. (Rio Times)
Argentinaa new AtlasIntel poll shows Milei’s positive image rising from 36% to 40% over two months while rival Axel Kicillof’s slipped to 38%, strengthening the reform mandate into October’s midterms. (Rio Times)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP’s reinsurance/retrocession reforms under the new Insurance Act (consultation 14/2025) stay a live cedant watch item as the market advances toward EIOPA/Solvency II-style equivalence. (KPMG)
MexicoCNSF continues to run its Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework; Banxico’s 25 Jun hold formalised the end of its easing cycle, with the June CPI release (9 Jul) the next input to the pause. (Banxico)
LatAmno major new regulatory actions in the past 24 hours; IAIS NatCat protection-gap and supervisory-capacity themes remain the standing regional backdrop.
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC/IRI guidance keeps El Niño as the dominant ENSO signal, with the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index near +1.7 °C and models pointing to a peak in SON 2026 (Sept–Nov); several ensembles flag the possibility of a strong-to-”super” event, with negligible odds of La Niña near-term. (NOAA CPC, IRI)
Andesthe coastal Pacific of Ecuador and northern Peru faces elevated flooding/landslide risk while highland zones in Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia trend drier; disaster-management authorities now treat the dual flood-and-drought pattern of 2023–24 as the planning baseline. (Rio Times, IFRC)
LatAmagricultural signal is asymmetric: drought pressure across Central America, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and the Pantanal tightens coffee supply, while more normal rains in the southern cone can support Argentine soy if intensity stays moderate. (WRI)
Caribbeanan El Niño-suppressed 2026 Atlantic season points to below-average storm numbers, reinforcing the soft cat-reinsurance tone; Peru’s El Niño Index (parametric) insurance remains the template for pre-flood early payouts to fund mitigation ahead of impact. (Artemis, IFRC)
LatAmno major new nat cat event in LAC in the past 24 hours; Venezuela’s late-June quakes (~US$6.7bn damage, only ~US$1.5bn insured) remain the standing event and CCRIF’s US$1.57bn pool is untriggered YTD. (Rio Times)
Coming Up
9 JulMexicoINEGI releases June CPI, the key input to Banxico’s extended pause at 6.50%.
10 JulBrazilIBGE publishes June IPCA, watched for signs of renewed food/energy pressure ahead of Copom.
29 JulBrazilCopom monetary-policy decision; markets weigh whether easing resumes after the 17 Jun cut to 14.25%.
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision amid sticky ~5.8% inflation and a still-hawkish bias.
7 AugColombiaPresident-elect de la Espriella inaugurated, extending the Andes’ rightward shift.
On the Radar
LatAmENSO intensification into the SON peak is the season’s defining swing factor: a confirmed strong/“super” El Niño would deepen Andean flood and Central American/Amazon drought risk while keeping the Atlantic wind season quiet — a mixed signal for parametric triggers and cat-bond spreads.
BrazilUS tariff friction (including the 50% protein tariff) plus election-year fiscal loosening could pressure the real and complicate the Selic path even as global disinflation argues for cuts.
Venezuelathe SOUTHCOM-led relief-and-control footprint post-quake is a slow-burn geopolitical risk with spillover to regional oil flows and migration.