Top line: El Niño remains the dominant ENSO signal (weekly Niño-3.4 ~+1.7 °C) and is strengthening toward a moderate-to-strong event with a Sept–Nov peak — a quiet Atlantic wind season but rising Andean flood and Central American drought exposure. Markets sit calm mid-week ahead of back-to-back CPI prints: Mexico’s June figure lands 9 Jul, Brazil’s IPCA 10 Jul.
Macro
Brazilthe Selic sits at 14.25% after the 17 Jun cut, with June IPCA due 10 Jul (prior 4.72% y/y, still above the 3% target); J.P. Morgan still eyes up to ~250bp of easing into the October election as the real holds near USD/BRL 5.15. (Trading Economics, fxmacrodata)
MexicoBanxico’s extended pause at 6.50% holds into tomorrow’s June CPI, with headline inflation hovering ~3.9% (May 3.94%) inside the target band and core near 4.1%. (Trading Economics)
Colombiaremains the region’s inflation outlier near ~5.8% after January’s 100bp hike, keeping BanRep tight ahead of its 31 Jul decision. (Banco de la República)
Argentinathe IMF-anchored stabilisation holds: end-2026 inflation is projected near 25% (from 31.5% in 2025), the peso has firmed ~13% in real terms since end-2025, and the economy is seen expanding ~3.5% on the US$20bn EFF. (IMF, Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric risk pool stands at US$1.57bn of coverage limits (up 9%) ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season, with new members and its COAST fisheries and Livelihood Protection products expanding; the pool is untriggered YTD. (Artemis)
LatAmthe buyer-favourable tone from 1 July renewals persists, property-cat rates down ~15–20% with parametrics mainstream; global Q1 insured cat losses of ~US$20bn ran 26% below the 10-year average, reinforcing the soft market. (Risk & Insurance)
Mexicothe sovereign doubled its parametric catastrophe cover to ~US$575m for 2026–27, a marker of expanding public risk transfer as El Niño exposure builds. (Artemis)
Political
Brazilthe 4 Oct first round (Lula seeking a fourth term vs Flávio Bolsonaro) remains the region’s marquee political risk, with security topping voter concerns and election-year fiscal pressure complicating the rate path. (AS/COA)
Colombiapresident-elect Abelardo de la Espriella (49.66% in the 21 Jun runoff) is inaugurated 7 Aug, extending the region’s rightward turn amid a combative relationship with Washington. (Al Jazeera)
Argentinaimproving Milei sentiment underpins country-risk compression into October’s midterms, the key domestic political swing factor before the 2027 presidential cycle. (Rio Times)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP’s reinsurance/retrocession reforms under the new Insurance Act (consultation 14/2025) stay a live cedant watch item as the market advances toward EIOPA/Solvency II-style equivalence, with the 40% local-cession preferential rule under LC 126/2007 intact. (Chambers)
MexicoCNSF continues to run its Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework; Banxico’s next input to the pause is tomorrow’s June CPI. (Skadden)
LatAmno major new regulatory actions in the past 24 hours; IAIS NatCat protection-gap and supervisory-capacity themes remain the standing regional backdrop.
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC/IRI keep El Niño as the dominant ENSO signal, with the latest weekly Niño-3.4 near +1.7 °C and El Niño probabilities at ~100% through SON; ensembles favour the peak in Sept–Nov 2026, and roughly half flag a “very strong” (≥+2.0 °C) event. (NOAA CPC, IRI)
Andesthe coastal Pacific of Ecuador and northern Peru faces elevated flooding/landslide risk while highland Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia trend drier; authorities treat the dual flood-and-drought pattern of 2023–24 as the planning baseline. (Rio Times, WRI)
Central Americathe Dry Corridor across Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua faces intensifying drought and food-security stress under the El Niño pattern, a recurring driver of parametric and humanitarian triggers. (Direct Relief)
Caribbeanan El Niño-suppressed 2026 Atlantic season points to below-average storm numbers, reinforcing the soft cat-reinsurance tone; CCRIF and Peru’s El Niño Index parametric covers remain the templates for pre-event early payouts. (Artemis)
LatAmno major new nat cat event in LAC in the past 24 hours; Venezuela’s late-June quakes (~US$6.7bn damage, only ~US$1.5bn insured) remain the standing event and CCRIF’s US$1.57bn pool is untriggered YTD. (Risk & Insurance)
Coming Up
9 JulMexicoINEGI releases June CPI, the key input to Banxico’s extended pause at 6.50%.
10 JulBrazilIBGE publishes June IPCA (prior 4.72% y/y), watched for renewed food/energy pressure ahead of Copom.
29 JulBrazilCopom decision; markets weigh whether easing resumes after the 17 Jun cut to 14.25%.
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision amid sticky ~5.8% inflation and a still-hawkish bias.
7 AugColombiapresident-elect de la Espriella inaugurated (Banxico also decides), extending the Andes’ rightward shift.
On the Radar
LatAmENSO intensification into the SON peak is the season’s defining swing factor: a confirmed strong/“super” El Niño would deepen Andean flood and Central American drought risk while keeping the Atlantic wind season quiet — a mixed signal for parametric triggers and cat-bond spreads.
BrazilUS tariff friction (incl. the 50% protein tariff) plus election-year fiscal loosening could pressure the real and complicate the Selic path even as global disinflation argues for cuts.
Venezuelathe post-quake SOUTHCOM relief-and-control footprint is a slow-burn geopolitical risk with spillover to regional oil flows and migration.