Macro
MexicoINEGI publishes full June CPI today; the first-half June read had already eased to 3.55% (core still sticky at 4.12%), the gentlest print of 2026 and comfortably inside band, cementing Banxico’s extended pause at 6.50%. (Rio Times, Trading Economics)
Brazildisinflation is broadening: monthly IPCA has slowed for two straight months and the central bank lifted its 2026 GDP call to 2.0% after Q1 grew 1.1%, keeping the Selic at 14.25% after June’s third quarter-point cut with markets eyeing further easing. (Rio Times, BBVA Research)
PeruBCRP decides today after holding at 4.25% for a ninth straight meeting in June; headline inflation eased to 3.9% in May but core at 4.4% keeps it just outside the 1–3% target, so another hold is the base case. (Central Banking, BCRP)
Chilethe BCCh is expected to cut to 4.75% at its 29 July meeting as inflation normalises, extending the region’s Andean easing bias while Colombia stays the hawkish outlier. (BanRep survey via Scotiabank)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmthe 1 July renewal cleared firmly buyer-favourable: property-cat XoL rates fell 15–20%, capacity from Bermuda, London and MGAs over-placed programmes, and ceding commissions rose 2–3 points as reinsurers competed for cedent access. (Reinsurance News, Insurance Business)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric pool stands at US$1.57bn (+9% y/y) and remains untriggered YTD ahead of the Atlantic season, while Cayman weighs its own cat bond after Jamaica upsized a World Bank–facilitated hurricane bond to US$200m in May. (Artemis, Rio Times)
Brazilparametric products are moving from niche to mainstream across LAC portfolios as reinsurers extend appetite into casualty and specialty lines to round out regional books. (Commercial Risk)
Political
BrazilFlávio Bolsonaro filed an 86-page submission asking Washington to delay proposed 25% tariffs for 180 days rather than before the 4 October vote, arguing fresh levies would hand Lula the sovereignty narrative; the US has until 15 July to decide (beef, coffee, rare earths and aircraft parts would be exempt). (Al Jazeera, Washington Post)
Colombiapresident-elect de la Espriella is inaugurated 7 August, extending the region’s rightward turn; BanRep stays the hawkish exception on sticky ~5.8% inflation into its 31 July decision. (Rio Times)
ArgentinaMilei’s sentiment continues to firm ahead of October midterms, anchoring the reform path as the IMF programme holds a ~25% inflation / ~3.5% growth track. (Scotiabank LatAm Weekly)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP’s reinsurance/retrocession reforms (consultation 14/2025) continue advancing toward EIOPA equivalence under LC 126/2007, keeping cedant capital and retrocession terms a live watch item. (Skadden)
Mexicothe CNSF runs its Solvency II–equivalent LISF framework as Skadden documents broad LAC convergence toward risk-based capital regimes led by Mexico and Brazil. (Skadden)
LatAmIAIS NatCat protection-gap themes remain the standing supervisory backdrop with no new region-wide regulatory actions in the past 24 hours. (Skadden)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmENSO has flipped to a developing El Niño: the weekly Niño-3.4 index reached +1.7 °C in mid-June and IRI/CPC put El Niño at ~98% for May–July and ~96% through winter 2026-27, with ocean–atmosphere coupling now confirmed by NOAA and WMO. (IRI, NOAA CPC)
LatAmforecasters warn of a possible “Super El Niño”: models cluster the peak in SON 2026 with a ~63% chance the event reaches very strong/extreme intensity in Nov–Jan — the marquee multi-quarter LAC climate risk. (UPI, WRI)
AndesPeru and Ecuador face rising coastal-flood, landslide and torrential-rain risk from exceptionally warm eastern-Pacific waters, while FEWS NET’s July outlook flags drought emerging across Central America, the northern Andes and NE Brazil (Guatemala’s Dry Corridor hardest hit). (FEWS NET, i4sea)
Caribbeana developing El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity (a positive for Caribbean wind cat and CCRIF’s untriggered US$1.57bn pool) while lifting east-Pacific and coastal Peru/Ecuador flood exposure, keeping parametric excess-rainfall triggers in focus. (Artemis)
Venezuelano major new LAC nat cat in the past 24 hours; the late-June quake sequence (~US$6.7bn damage, only ~US$1.5bn insured) remains the standing loss event underscoring the region’s protection gap. (Rio Times)
Coming Up
10 JulBrazilIBGE releases June IPCA (prior 4.72% y/y), a key input for the next Copom.
15 JulBrazilUS deadline to decide on proposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods.
29 JulChileBCCh rate decision, consensus a cut to 4.75%.
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision on still-sticky ~5.8% inflation.
5 AugBrazilCopom Selic decision after June’s cut to 14.25%.
On the Radar
Brazilthe 15 July US tariff verdict is the near-term swing factor for the real and protein/soy exporters, and is now entangled with the October election narrative.
LatAma strengthening (possibly “Super”) El Niño through SON 2026 threatens Andean coastal flooding and Central American/NE-Brazil drought, pressuring coffee, sugar and corn and activating parametric rainfall/drought triggers.
LatAmthe soft, over-supplied reinsurance market (rates down 15–20% at 1 July) keeps compressing pricing even as the ~80% protection gap and El Niño loss potential argue for caution into renewals.