LatAm Daily Briefing — 10 July 2026

Macro

MexicoJune headline CPI cooled to 3.37% y/y (from 3.94% in May), a second month inside Banxico’s 2–4% band and the best print of the year, though core held sticky at 4.03%; the board’s unanimous 6.50% hold looks locked in. (Rio Times, FX.co)
Brazilsofter June IPCA (12-month ~4.8%, still above the 4.5% ceiling) lifted bets on a resumed Selic cut, with the rate at 14.25% after the 17 Jun move and the year-end forecast steady near 14%. (Rio Times, Agência Brasil)
ColombiaJune inflation ran hot at 6.14% y/y, more than double the 3% target and above the analyst range, keeping BanRep restrictive; the peso stayed firm near USD/COP 3,349 into the 31 Jul decision. (Rio Times, BBVA Research)
Argentinathe peso firmed to ~1,485/USD and country risk fell to 406bps — the tightest since April 2018 — as foreign capital keeps rewarding Milei’s fiscal-surplus, dollar-buying programme. (Rio Times)

LatAmHowden Re confirms the 1 July renewal stayed decisively buyer-favourable: property-cat XoL rates down 15–20%, over-placement, ceding commissions up a further 2–3%, and appetite migrating into casualty and specialty on abundant Bermuda/London/MGA capacity. (Artemis, Reinsurance News)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric pool stands at US$1.57bn (9% growth) and is untriggered YTD; new members (Jamaica Public Service, Nevis Electricity) and the COAST fisheries cover widen the book ahead of an El Niño-suppressed Atlantic season. (Artemis)
LatAmthe region’s protection gap remains the headline structural theme: 2024 insured nat cat losses were US$11.6bn with only part covered, penetration below 5% of GDP, and Venezuela’s June quake underscoring the shortfall. (Insurance Business)

BrazilWashington’s decision on proposed 25% tariffs is due by 15 Jul; Flávio Bolsonaro is lobbying Trump for a 180-day delay while Lula accuses him of triggering the threat, making tariff-handling a central axis of the 4 Oct race. (Al Jazeera, ABC News)
Argentinaimproving Milei sentiment (positive image ~40%) and tightening country risk keep the reform mandate intact into October’s midterms, sustaining the market’s constructive Argentina trade. (Rio Times)
Venezuelahumanitarian needs from the 24 Jun quakes keep escalating (>3,800 dead, up to 6.8m affected), compounding post-Maduro instability and a US relief-and-control footprint at key ports and airfields. (NPR)

BrazilSUSEP continues rolling out the new Insurance Act (Law 15.040/2024) and CNSP Resolution 484 on universal life, with reinsurance/retrocession reforms (consultation 14/2025) advancing toward EIOPA/Solvency II-style equivalence. (DAC Beachcroft, Skadden)
MexicoCNSF continues to run its Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework; Banxico’s June CPI print reinforces the extended pause with no new regulatory action in 24h. (Skadden)
LatAmno major new regulatory actions in the past 24 hours; IAIS NatCat protection-gap and supervisory-capacity themes remain the standing regional backdrop.

LatAmNOAA/GFDL July guidance keeps El Niño established and strengthening: weekly Niño-3.4 near +1.7 °C, El Niño probabilities ~100% through SON 2026, and several ensembles flagging a strong-to-”super” event (≥+2.0 °C) peaking Sept–Nov with negligible near-term La Niña odds. (NOAA CPC, GFDL)
Andescoastal Ecuador and northern Peru face elevated torrential-rain, river-overflow and coastal-flood risk while highland areas trend drier; a strong-event Andean GDP hit of 0.6–1.7pp is now the planning scenario. (UPI, i4sea)
LatAmthe agricultural signal is asymmetric: drier/drought risk across Central America, the northern Andes and the Amazon (coffee, corn stress) versus wetter southeastern South America that can aid Argentine/southern-Brazil soy if intensity stays moderate. (WRI)
Caribbeanan El Niño-suppressed 2026 Atlantic season points to below-30-year-average storm numbers, reinforcing the soft cat-reinsurance tone; cat-bond investors continue to watch El Niño dampen hurricane expectations while CCRIF’s US$1.57bn pool stays untriggered. (The Insurer, Artemis)
Venezuelano new LAC nat cat event in 24h, but damage estimates for the 24 Jun quakes were revised sharply higher, with the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction now putting direct damages at ~US$37bn against only ~US$1.5bn insured — a stark protection-gap marker. (Wikipedia/UNDRR, NPR)

15 JulBrazilUS deadline to decide on proposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods (beef, coffee, aircraft parts exempt).
15 JulArgentinaINDEC releases June national CPI, watched against the ~25% disinflation path.
24 JulMexicoINEGI publishes first-half July CPI, the next input to Banxico’s 6.50% pause.
28 JulChileBCCh monetary policy decision.
29 JulBrazilCopom rate decision; markets weigh whether easing resumes after the 17 Jun cut to 14.25%.

LatAmENSO intensification into the SON peak is the season’s defining swing factor: a confirmed strong/“super” El Niño would deepen Andean flood and Central American/Amazon drought risk while keeping the Atlantic wind season quiet — mixed signals for parametric triggers and cat-bond spreads.
Brazilthe 15 Jul US tariff decision plus election-year fiscal loosening could jolt the real and complicate the Selic path even as soft June inflation argues for resumed cuts.
Venezuelathe sharply higher (~US$37bn) quake-damage estimate and slow humanitarian response are a compounding drag on regional stability, oil flows and migration.