LatAm Daily Briefing — 12 July 2026

Macro

LatAmRegional 2026 growth is now pencilled near 2.1%, below 2025’s 2.4%, as still-restrictive real rates and soft investment offset resilient private consumption; the easing cycle is under way but uneven. (Morgan Stanley, FocusEconomics)
BrazilThe Banco Central cut Selic 25bp to 14.25% at its 16–17 June meeting (third straight quarter-point cut), while June IPCA eased to 4.64% from 4.72%; energy/fuel inflation stayed elevated at ~7.7%. (FocusEconomics, Trading Economics)
MexicoBanxico held at 6.50% in a first unanimous vote on 25 June, signalling the easing cycle’s end after inflation firmed to ~3.94% with core near 4.19%. (Mexico Business, Trading Economics)
BoliviaThe 15-year fixed dollar peg is gone, replaced by a managed rate as dollars stay scarce; analysts warn flexibilisation alone won’t fix the FX shortage amid a wide fiscal deficit and falling exports. (Rio Times)

LatAmThe 1 July reinsurance renewal favoured buyers: property-cat XoL rates fell 15–20% on abundant capacity, with Bermuda, London and MGA capital deepening supply and ceding commissions up a further 2–3%. (Artemis, Reinsurance News)
LatAmParametric and structured covers moved from niche to mainstream at renewals, alongside appetite migration into casualty and specialty lines and growing use of facultative and casualty sidecars. (Global Reinsurance)
VenezuelaVerisk now estimates the 24 June twin quakes will exceed US$10bn in economic loss, but with penetration below 5% of GDP the insured share is deeply uncertain and most damage is uninsured — a stark protection-gap reminder. (Verisk, Reinsurance News)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC grew its parametric risk pool 9% to US$1.57bn of coverage limits ahead of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season (+17% Caribbean, +18% Central America), and Jamaica’s $200m World Bank cat bond drew 25 investors as it plans to expand parametric fishery cover. (Artemis)

PeruKeiko Fujimori was proclaimed president-elect by a razor-thin ~50,000-vote margin (50.1% of valid votes) and will be sworn in on 28 July, becoming Peru’s first woman president; a Petroperú reorganisation is flagged among early priorities. (CNN, Atlantic Council)
VenezuelaThe June earthquakes (3,800+ dead) have become a political test for acting president Delcy Rodríguez, whose disapproval rose to 63.3% as 52% rated the emergency response “very deficient.” (CSMonitor)
LatAmThe regional swing right continues: after Milei (Argentina) and Kast (Chile, March 2026), Colombia elected hardliner Abelardo De La Espriella (21 June runoff, 49.66%) and Peru returns Fujimorismo, reshaping the policy backdrop for insurers and investors. (The Media Line, ACLED)

BrazilSUSEP is bedding in the new Insurance Act (in force 11 Dec 2025); local reinsurers retroceding more than 70% of written premiums must file a justifying technical report, with the first filings due by 31 March 2026. (DAC Beachcroft)
LatAmA comparative review of Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina and Colombia confirms a steady march toward risk-based, Solvency II-aligned capital regimes, though IFRS 17 adoption remains uneven (live in Brazil/Mexico, delayed in Argentina/Chile). (Skadden)
ColombiaBanRep remains the region’s monetary outlier after a 75bp hike to 12% on 30 June, keeping local financing costs elevated ahead of its 31 July decision. (Banco de la República)

LatAmA very strong El Niño is under way and intensifying; NOAA/GFDL’s July run shows all 30 ensemble members peaking near the strongest events on record, with a high chance SST anomalies exceed 2.0°C (“very strong”) around SON 2026 and ~97% odds of persisting into early spring 2027. (GFDL/NOAA, NOAA CPC)
Central America / AndesThe dominant pattern is drought across Central America, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and the Pantanal (corn, soy, coffee, sugar stress), with excess rain shifting into the southern cone. (FAO)
Peru / EcuadorThe Pacific coast faces the classic El Niño flooding-and-landslide risk while highland agriculture confronts water and temperature stress; Chile is bracing for well above-normal rainfall in coming weeks. (Rio Times)
ArgentinaThe soy/corn belt is the single biggest El Niño swing factor for global markets; a well-timed rainy season could deliver a bumper 2026/27 soy harvest, easing agri-related crop and credit exposures. (Rio Times)
CaribbeanNo major new insured nat-cat event reported in the past 24 hours; the standing watch remains the strengthening El Niño (which historically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity but elevates E-Pacific risk) and continued aftershock/relief exposure from Venezuela’s June quakes. (Artemis)

24 JulBrazilIBGE releases the IPCA-15 mid-month inflation print, the last read before the Copom decision.
28 JulChileBanco Central de Chile monetary policy decision (RPM held 27–28 July).
28 JulPeruKeiko Fujimori is inaugurated as president on Independence Day.
31 JulColombiaBanRep monetary policy decision; the region’s lone recent hiker.
4 AugBrazilCopom announces its Selic decision (meeting 4–5 Aug); markets watch for a fourth cut.

LatAmSoftening reinsurance pricing colliding with a strengthening El Niño: buyers are locking in cheap property-cat capacity now, but a severe southern-cone flood or Andean event this cycle could test parametric triggers and retentions.
VenezuelaPost-quake reconstruction, a fragile political transition and the sheer protection gap keep sovereign and humanitarian risk elevated across the northern rim.
ArgentinaThe El Niño harvest outlook is a two-sided crop bet: bumper soy would ease FX and fiscal stress, but flooding in the wrong window could sharply cut yields and hit agri-credit and multiperil books.