Macro
MexicoJune headline CPI fell to 3.37% (five-year low, second month inside the target band) with core still sticky at 4.03%, backing a dovish read on Banxico’s 6.50% pause into the 25–26 July decision. (Briefs, FXStreet)
BrazilJune IPCA eased to 4.64% (from 4.72% in May, below the 4.80% consensus), keeping the door open to resumed Selic cuts from 14.25% after June’s third straight 25bp reduction. (Trading Economics, BCB)
ColombiaInflation ran hot at 6.14% in June (above the forecast range) after BanRep’s split 30 June hike to 12%, leaving the country the region’s clear inflation and rates outlier into its 31 July meeting. (Rio Times, Rio Times)
LatAmSell-side keeps regional 2026 growth near ~2%, but Oxford Economics flags Brazil, Mexico and Colombia together on a new fiscal-risk warning over widening debt holes. (Goldman Sachs, Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmHowden Re confirms 1 July property-cat rates fell 15–20% with parametrics moving mainstream, as Bermuda, London and MGA capacity over-placed programmes and handed cedents pricing leverage. (Artemis, Business Insurance)
LatAmFitch says recent cat bond and insurance-linked LRS issuance is set to widen and sophisticate Latin America’s insurance-debt market, reshaped by regulatory reform, private-credit expansion and fintech. (Artemis)
VenezuelaThe 24 June M7.2/M7.5 quakes now leave 3,535 dead and ~17,845 homeless per UN OCHA, with damage estimated near US$6.7bn against minimal insured cover — the region’s protection-gap headline. (UN News, Reinsurance Business)
Political
BrazilThe proposed US 25% tariff (Washington decides by 15 July; beef, coffee, rare earths and aircraft parts exempt) has become a central axis of the 4 Oct Lula-vs-Flávio Bolsonaro race, with Bolsonaro lobbying for a 180-day delay and Lula branding it “treason.” (Al Jazeera, BNN Bloomberg)
PeruThe JNE proclaimed Keiko Fujimori president-elect on 10 July (50.135% vs 49.865%); she is inaugurated 28 July as Peru’s first woman president, with Milei, Kast and Mulino confirmed to attend. (Manila Times, Infobae)
LatAmMilei framed the region’s rightward turn bluntly (“first Chile, then Colombia, then Peru”), with Kast and Fujimori agreeing to coordinate against transnational crime and drug trafficking. (Infobae, AS/COA)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the new Insurance Act (Law 15.040) and reinsurance/retrocession reforms (consultation 14/2025) as the market moves toward EIOPA equivalence under LC 126/2007. (Lexology)
LatAmSkadden’s prudential-solvency review documents the region’s steady convergence toward Solvency II-aligned, risk-based capital regimes, with Mexico’s CNSF (an IAIS member) running its LISF framework; no new 24h regional action. (Skadden, Latin Lawyer)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmEl Niño is officially established in the equatorial Pacific (since ~11 June) and strengthening, with NOAA/IRI assigning ~97–100% persistence into early 2027 and a 63% chance of reaching “very strong”/extreme intensity in Nov–Jan — a possible “Super El Niño.” (Rio Times, UPI)
AndesThe dominant pattern is drought across Central America, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and Pantanal, alongside coastal flood/landslide risk for Peru (Callao) and Ecuador (Guayaquil); the southern cone (Uruguay, Paraguay, NE Argentina) faces flooding. (WRI, i4sea)
CaribbeanEl Niño is suppressing the 2026 Atlantic season (TSR sees ~11 named storms / ACE ~40% below normal; CSU lowered further on wind shear), reinforcing the 15–20% property-cat rate declines; markets treat this as risk redistribution, not reduction. (Artemis, InsuraBeat)
EcuadorA 3 July Zamora River overflow flooded Guadalupe (Zamora Chinchipe), leaving 5 dead, 10 missing and 38 injured — an early El Niño-consistent flood signal; no new material nat cat elsewhere in LAC in the past 24h. (OCHA)
LatAmInsurers are leaning into parametrics as the season’s hedge: Mexico doubled sovereign parametric cover to ~US$575m and CCRIF’s ~US$1.57bn pool stays untriggered YTD ahead of the suppressed peak. (Artemis)
Coming Up
15 JulBrazilWashington’s deadline to decide on proposed 25% tariffs (beef, coffee, rare earths, aircraft parts exempt).
25 JulMexicoBanxico monetary policy decision; markets expect the 6.50% pause to hold after soft June CPI.
28 JulPeruKeiko Fujimori inaugurated as president, the country’s first woman head of state.
30 JulBrazilCopom decision; softer June IPCA revives bets on a resumed cut from 14.25%.
31 JulColombiaBanRep decision, the region’s outlier after the 30 June hike to 12% and 6.14% June inflation.
On the Radar
LatAmWhether a strengthening El Niño tips “very strong” would redistribute cat risk toward Andean flood, Central American/Amazon drought and E-Pacific activity even as the Atlantic stays quiet — watch parametric triggers, hydropower stress and coffee/corn/soy supply.
BrazilThe 15 July US tariff verdict is a live macro and political catalyst three months before the 4 Oct vote; an imposition would pressure the real and protein/ag exporters despite carve-outs.
VenezuelaPost-quake humanitarian strain (3,500+ dead, ~18k homeless) and governance instability keep sovereignty and reconstruction-financing risk elevated across the northern rim.