LatAm Daily Briefing — 14 July 2026

Macro

LatAmRegional GDP is seen near 2.1% in 2026 (below 2025’s 2.4%) with regional inflation around 4.3%, as easing cycles in Mexico and parts of the Andes near their end while investment stays subdued. (World Bank) (Morgan Stanley)
BrazilCopom cut the Selic 25bp to 14.25% on 17 June (third straight cut) and left the door open to more, though election-year fiscal pressure clouds the pace of further easing. (Reuters)
MexicoJune headline inflation eased to 3.37% (from 3.94% in May), back inside Banxico’s tolerance band and below the 3.52% consensus, reinforcing a cautious pause after the earlier uptick. (Trading Economics)
ColombiaInflation is re-accelerating after a 23% minimum-wage increase; BanRep, having tightened 100bp in January, remains the regional outlier leaning hawkish into its 31 July decision. (Focus Economics)

LatAmProperty-cat excess-of-loss rates fell 15–20% at the 1 July renewals as Bermuda, London and MGA capacity crowded in, handing cedents leverage on both price and program structure. (Artemis)
LatAmParametric and structured covers are gaining real traction across the region as buyers deploy abundant capacity into new program designs. (Reinsurance News)
LatAmGlobal cat-bond issuance hit a record $11.3bn of new risk capital across 48 deals in Q2 2026, keeping the year on pace with last year’s record and widening the ILS door for LAC sponsors. (Artemis)
BrazilReinsurers enter H2 2026 with record capital and buyer-friendly conditions, marked by over-placement, rising ceding commissions and appetite migrating into casualty and specialty. (Insurance Business)

ColombiaConservative Abelardo de la Espriella won the 21 June runoff by under a point (49.66% vs Iván Cepeda’s 48.70%), extending a regional anti-incumbent, security-driven swing to the right. (Colombia One)
LatAmAnalysts frame recent wins by Milei, Kast, Fujimori and de la Espriella less as an ideological sweep than as electorates punishing incumbents over insecurity, inflation and corruption. (AS/COA)
BrazilLula is seeking a fourth term with the first round set for 4 October, keeping fiscal and political risk premia elevated through the year. (AS/COA)

LatAmA new Skadden survey of LAC prudential-solvency regimes underscores the region’s continued convergence toward Solvency II–style risk-based capital across Mexico, Brazil and the Andes. (Skadden)
MexicoCNSF supervision stays anchored in its Solvency II–modeled LISF framework, with ESG disclosure (Circular 2/24) and 2026 tax changes seen pressuring insurer profitability. (Latin Lawyer)
BrazilSUSEP’s principle-based, economically-oriented solvency regime continues to let the regulator assess deals on substance and genuine risk transfer. (Chambers)

LatAmNOAA CPC’s 9 July El Niño Advisory has Niño-3.4 near +1.2°C (latest weekly reading +1.7°C) and strengthening, with a 97% chance El Niño persists through early spring 2027 and roughly 81% odds of a very strong event in Oct–Dec. (NOAA CPC)
AndesForecasters warn of a possible “super El Niño,” raising flood and landslide risk on the Peru–Ecuador coast (Callao and Guayaquil exposure) while drought grips Central America, the northern Andes and the Amazon. (Crisis24) (FEWS NET)
CaribbeanCCRIF grew its parametric pool 9% to $1.57bn of coverage limits and added utility members ahead of the season, deepening sovereign cat protection across the region. (Artemis)
CaribbeanEl Niño is suppressing Atlantic activity: NOAA’s outlook carries a 55% chance of a below-normal season and CSU lowered its July forecast, easing near-term hurricane loss risk. (Weather.com)
VenezuelaRelief operations from the 24 June M7.2/M7.5 quakes continued to scale up, with situation reports on 13 July citing 4,333 dead, 16,000+ injured and UNDRR estimating ~US$37bn in direct damages; near-zero insurance penetration leaves losses almost entirely uncovered. (ReliefWeb) (PAHO)
LatAmNo new insured nat-cat event was reported elsewhere in LAC in the past 24h; the dominant signal remains slow-onset El Niño drought and flood stress on agriculture (corn, coffee, sugar) and hydro generation. (FEWS NET)

15 JulBrazilWashington’s self-imposed deadline to decide on proposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods, a live trade/political-risk trigger.
24 JulMexicoINEGI bi-weekly CPI (first half of July), a key input for Banxico’s pause calculus.
24 JulBrazilIBGE IPCA-15 mid-month inflation preview.
30 JulMexicoINEGI preliminary Q2 2026 GDP.
31 JulColombiaBanRep monetary-policy decision, the region’s lone hawkish hold-or-hike watch.

AndesA strengthening El Niño into Q4 threatens Andean GDP (estimated −0.6 to −1.7pp in a strong scenario) via port shutdowns (Callao, Guayaquil), mining-road landslides and hydro disruption; watch parametric triggers and early-warning claims. (i4sea)
ColombiaRe-accelerating inflation, a hawkish BanRep and a new right-of-center president-elect keep Colombian rates and peso assets a regional divergence trade to watch. (Focus Economics)
LatAmSoftening reinsurance pricing (−15 to −20%) alongside rising ceding commissions raises the question of how far the buyers’ market runs before capacity discipline returns. (Commercial Risk)