Macro
MexicoJune headline CPI eased to a five-year low of 3.37% (core still sticky near 4.03%), keeping Banxico comfortably paused at 6.50% after ending its easing cycle on 25 Jun; the mid-July biweekly print lands 25 Jul. (Trading Economics)
BrazilJune IPCA cooled to 4.64% y/y (from 4.72% in May), reviving bets that Copom resumes cutting from the current 14.25% Selic at its 4–5 Aug meeting after three straight 25bp moves. (Rio Times) (FX.co)
ColombiaInflation accelerated to a two-year high of 6.14% in June (from 5.84%), cementing BanRep as the regional hawkish outlier after its 30 Jun hike to 12.00%; the next decision is 31 Jul. (Bloomberg) (Colombia One)
ArgentinaThe IMF calls Milei’s stabilization one of its most successful in recent memory (inflation down to ~32%), but flags thin reserves and record household loan delinquency (12.7% in May); MD Georgieva visits 28–29 Jul. (PIIE) (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmHowden Re confirms 1 July property-cat XoL rates fell 15–20% as Bermuda, London and MGA capacity crowded in, with ceding commissions up 2–3% and appetite migrating into casualty and specialty — a firmly buyer-favourable H2 entry. (Artemis) (Global Reinsurance)
LatAmThe region’s protection gap stays stark: 2024 insured nat cat losses were just US$1.5bn of US$11.6bn total, with penetration below 5% of GDP — the structural case for the parametric and structured products now moving mainstream. (Insurance Business)
ColombiaSovereign credit stays under pressure with the deteriorating fiscal path (debt-to-GDP heading to ~56%): S&P holds BB and Fitch’s BBB- faces downgrade risk if consolidation slips further. (countryeconomy) (S&P Global)
Political
PeruKeiko Fujimori is inaugurated 28 Jul as the country’s first woman president after her narrow runoff win (50.135%), inheriting thin legislative majorities and a chamber prone to removing presidents. (Colombia One)
ColombiaPresident-elect Abelardo de la Espriella takes office 7 Aug, extending the region’s rightward turn; his win crowned a record-turnout runoff that outgoing president Petro contested. (AS/COA)
BrazilThe 4 Oct first round (Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro) remains the marquee regional risk, with a proposed US tariff on Brazilian goods a live axis of the campaign. (AS/COA)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the new Insurance Contract Law (Law 15.040) and its reinsurance/retrocession reforms (consultation 14/2025), advancing toward EIOPA equivalence — a live watch item for cedants on claims-control clauses. (ICLG)
LatAmSkadden’s prudential-solvency survey documents steady convergence toward Solvency II-style risk-based capital regimes across the region, adopted at varying speeds with local adaptations. (Skadden)
MexicoCNSF, an IAIS member, runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework; no new 24h regulatory action, with IAIS NatCat protection-gap themes the standing backdrop (penetration ~2.9% of GDP). (Latin Lawyer)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmThe 9 Jul NOAA CPC diagnostic keeps El Niño present and strengthening: latest weekly Niño-3.4 +1.2°C (Niño-1+2 a hot +2.7°C), with a 97% chance it persists into early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of a very strong event in Oct–Dec that would rank among the largest since 1950. (NOAA CPC) (IRI)
AndesThe forecast footprint pairs coastal flooding and landslides in Peru and Ecuador with drought across the Central American Dry Corridor, Colombia, the northern Andes and the Amazon; Colombian reservoirs already sit below 60% and Andean GDP could shed 0.6–1.7pp in a strong event. (i4sea) (Rio Times)
EcuadorThe 3 Jul Zamora River flood in Zamora Chinchipe killed 5 with 10 missing and 38 injured; it remains the most recent named LAC flood event, with no major new nat cat reported in the past 24h. (OCHA)
VenezuelaThe 24 Jun twin quakes have killed ~3,535 with ~17,845 homeless; Verisk now sees economic losses topping US$10bn against minimal insured cover, a stark illustration of the protection gap. (Wikipedia) (OCHA)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric pool, grown 9% to US$1.57bn ahead of the season, stays untriggered YTD as El Niño’s tendency to suppress Atlantic activity underpins below-average storm-count forecasts for 2026. (Artemis)
Coming Up
25 JulMexicoINEGI publishes first-half-July CPI, the next read on whether disinflation below 3.4% holds. (INEGI)
28 JulPeruKeiko Fujimori is inaugurated as president, the country’s first woman head of state. (Colombia One)
28–29 JulArgentinaIMF Managing Director Georgieva visits Buenos Aires amid reserve-building and reform talks. (Rio Times)
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision with a fresh Monetary Policy Report, after June inflation hit 6.14%. (BanRep)
4–5 AugBrazilCopom decision; markets weigh whether easing resumes from the 14.25% Selic. (BCB)
On the Radar
LatAmA strengthening (81% odds of very strong) El Niño into late 2026 would test parametric triggers and cat-bond attachment assumptions just as LatAm cat pricing softens 15–20% — a widening gap between falling rates and rising physical risk.
ColombiaThe 31 Jul BanRep decision sits at the intersection of 6.14% inflation, a 23% minimum-wage shock and a deteriorating fiscal path pressuring the sovereign rating — the region’s clearest policy tension.
BrazilThe proposed US tariff on Brazilian goods, layered on the 4 Oct election, is a live tail risk for trade-credit and political-risk books into H2.