Macro
MexicoThe peso firmed to ~17.48/USD (from 17.63 earlier in July) as a softer dollar lifted EM currencies, with June CPI at a five-year-low 3.37% keeping Banxico comfortably paused at 6.50% after ending its easing cycle on 25 Jun; the first-half-July print lands 25 Jul. (Trading Economics)
BrazilCooling June IPCA (4.64% y/y) keeps alive bets that Copom resumes cutting from the 14.25% Selic at its 4–5 Aug meeting, though Focus-survey inflation expectations for 2026/2027 (4.9%/4.0%) still sit above target and argue for caution. (Rio Times) (Central Banking)
ColombiaBanRep remains the regional hawkish outlier at 12.00% after its 30 Jun hike, with June inflation at a two-year high of 6.14% keeping the door shut on cuts into the 31 Jul decision. (Central Banking)
ArgentinaFitch upgraded the sovereign to ‘B-’ (stable) citing improved fiscal and external balances and better reserve-accumulation prospects, a milestone for Milei’s stabilization even as thin reserves and record household loan delinquency remain the soft spots. (Buenos Aires Herald)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmAfrica Specialty Risks named Yelhis Hernández Regional Lead for Latin America (15 Jul), the latest sign of expanding external capacity chasing the region after a buyer-favourable 1 July renewal that cut property-cat XoL rates 15–20%. (Reinsurance News) (Artemis)
LatAmGuy Carpenter hired a two-person health-reinsurance team for its Miami-based Latin America & Caribbean desk, underscoring the appetite migration from crowded property-cat into casualty, specialty and life/health lines flagged at renewals. (Insurance Business)
LatAmHowden Re characterises H2 entry as defined by abundant capacity, over-placement and ceding commissions up a further 2–3 points, with parametric and structured products moving from niche to broadly evaluated — the structural response to a protection gap that left most 2024 nat-cat losses uninsured. (Global Reinsurance)
Political
PeruKeiko Fujimori, who won June’s runoff by just 0.27 points, is inaugurated 28 Jul as the country’s first woman president, governing alongside a newly bicameral Congress (a Senate returns for the first time since 1992). (Chatham House)
ColombiaPresident-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, who edged senator Iván Cepeda by under a point on record 63.5% turnout, takes office in August, extending an Andean rightward swing that also delivered Peru. (Chatham House)
BrazilThe 4 Oct first round (Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro) stays the marquee regional risk, with a proposed US tariff on Brazilian goods a live campaign axis for trade-credit and political-risk books. (AS/COA)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the new Insurance Contract Law (Law 15.040) and its reinsurance/retrocession reforms (consultation 14/2025), advancing toward EIOPA equivalence — a live watch item for cedants on claims-control clauses. (Skadden)
LatAmSkadden’s prudential-solvency survey documents steady convergence toward Solvency II-style risk-based capital regimes across the region, adopted at varying speeds with local adaptations. (Skadden)
MexicoCNSF, an IAIS member, runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework; no new 24h regulatory action, with IAIS NatCat protection-gap themes the standing backdrop. (Latin Lawyer)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC keeps a strong El Niño strengthening: a 97% chance it persists into early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of a very strong event in Oct–Dec that would rank among the largest since 1950 — with essentially no La Niña probability in the forecast. (weather.com) (NOAA CPC)
AndesThe forecast footprint pairs coastal flooding and landslides in Peru and Ecuador with drought across the Central American Dry Corridor, Colombia, the northern Andes, the Amazon and the Pantanal, while pushing excess rain into the southern cone (southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, NE Argentina). (Rio Times) (WRI)
LatAmAgricultural signal is mixed: severe dryness threatens maize and rice across Central America, the Caribbean and Colombia, while above-average rain favours Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru; Argentina’s soy/corn belt remains the single most important El Niño variable for global markets. (WisdomTree) (JRC)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric pool, grown 9% to US$1.57bn ahead of the season, stays untriggered YTD; El Niño’s tendency to suppress Atlantic activity underpins below-average storm-count expectations even as the region sits “in the grip of a super El Niño cycle.” (Artemis)
EcuadorThe 3 Jul Zamora River flood (5 dead, 10 missing, 38 injured, ~200 displaced) remains the most recent named LAC flood event, with no major new nat cat reported in the past 24h; Venezuela’s 24 Jun twin quakes (~3,535 dead, ~17,845 homeless, economic loss seen topping US$10bn) stay the region’s dominant loss event against minimal insured cover. (OCHA)
Coming Up
25 JulMexicoINEGI publishes first-half-July CPI, the next read on whether disinflation below 3.4% holds. (INEGI)
28 JulPeruKeiko Fujimori is inaugurated as president, the country’s first woman head of state. (Chatham House)
28–29 JulArgentinaIMF Managing Director Georgieva visits Buenos Aires amid reserve-building and reform talks. (Rio Times)
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision with a fresh Monetary Policy Report, after June inflation hit 6.14%. (Banco de la República)
4–5 AugBrazilCopom decision; markets weigh whether easing resumes from the 14.25% Selic. (BCB)
On the Radar
LatAmA strengthening (81% odds of very strong) El Niño into late 2026 would test parametric triggers and cat-bond attachment assumptions just as LatAm cat pricing softens 15–20% — a widening gap between falling rates and rising physical risk.
ColombiaThe 31 Jul BanRep decision sits at the intersection of 6.14% inflation, a fiscal path under strain and a sovereign rating on watch — the region’s clearest policy tension.
BrazilThe proposed US tariff on Brazilian goods, layered on the 4 Oct election, is a live tail risk for trade-credit and political-risk books into H2.