Top line: the US 25% tariff on most Brazilian imports takes effect today, with Lula vowing WTO and reciprocity-law countermeasures; the real slipped to ~5.09/USD while the Mexican peso firmed on a soft dollar, and NOAA holds El Niño present and strengthening into a below-normal Atlantic season.
Macro
BrazilThe US 25% tariff on most Brazilian goods (sugar, steel, apparel, machinery; beef, coffee, aircraft and energy exempted) takes effect today, nudging the real to ~5.09/USD as markets price reduced dollar inflows. (Rio Times) (CNBC)
MexicoThe peso firmed 0.61% on 21 Jul, holding a tight 17.35–17.45 band on a softer dollar, with June CPI at a five-year-low 3.37% keeping Banxico paused at 6.50% after ending its easing cycle; first-half-July print lands 25 Jul. (Rio Times)
BrazilCooling June IPCA (4.64% y/y) keeps alive bets Copom resumes cutting from 14.25% at its 5 Aug meeting, though Focus expectations (~4.9%/4.0% for 2026/27) still sit above target. (Trading Economics)
ColombiaBanRep stays the regional hawkish outlier at 12.00% after its 30 Jun hike, with June inflation at a two-year high of 6.14% shutting the door on cuts into its 31 Jul decision. (Central Banking)
Financial & Insurance Markets
MexicoFitch flags Mexico as the 2026 outlier in an otherwise ‘neutral’ LatAm insurance landscape, assigning a ‘deteriorating’ sector view as tax reforms pressure profitability and capital strength. (Reinsurance News)
LatAmThe 1 July renewal completed firmly buyer-favourable: property-cat XoL rates down 15–20% as Bermuda, London and MGA capacity crowds in and parametric/structured products move mainstream. (Insurance Business) (Commercial Risk)
BrazilFitch keeps a ‘negative’ outlook on the Brazil reinsurance market even as the broader region reads ‘neutral’; the US tariff adds a fresh drag on trade-credit and export-exposed lines into H2. (Reinsurance News)
CaribbeanJamaica’s US$200m IBRD CAR 2026 cat bond and its planned CCRIF renewal anchor a deepening regional disaster-risk-financing market, with Cayman weighing its own cat bond. (Artemis)
Political
BrazilThe 25% tariff, stemming from a yearlong Section 301 probe citing Pix, deforestation and anti-corruption grievances, takes effect today; Lula rejected it as groundless and will pursue WTO dispute settlement and the Reciprocity Law. (Time) (Al Jazeera)
BrazilThe tariff lands squarely into the 4 Oct first round (Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro, polling neck-and-neck), making trade a central campaign axis for political-risk books. (AS/COA)
PeruKeiko Fujimori, who won June’s runoff by ~0.27 points, is inaugurated 28 Jul as the country’s first woman president, alongside a newly bicameral Congress. (Colombia One)
ColombiaPresident-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, who edged a tight record-turnout runoff, takes office 7 Aug, extending an Andean rightward swing. (Colombia One)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the new Insurance Contract Law (Law 15.040) and reinsurance/retrocession reforms (consultation 14/2025), advancing toward EIOPA equivalence — a live watch item for cedants on claims-control clauses. (Skadden)
MexicoCNSF, an IAIS member, runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework; Fitch’s flagged tax reforms are the live 2026 pressure point on insurer capital, with no new 24h regulatory action. (Latin Lawyer)
LatAmSkadden’s prudential-solvency survey documents steady convergence toward Solvency II-style risk-based capital regimes across the region, adopted at varying speeds with local adaptations; IAIS NatCat protection-gap themes remain the standing backdrop. (Skadden)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC and FEWS NET confirm El Niño is present and strengthening, favoured to persist through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026–27; an El Niño-suppressed Atlantic season carries a ~55% chance of below-normal activity. (FEWS NET) (NOAA CPC)
AndesThe footprint pairs coastal flooding and landslides on the Pacific coast of Peru and Ecuador with drought across the Central American Dry Corridor, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and the Pantanal, while pushing excess rain into the southern cone. (Rio Times) (WLRN)
LatAmAgricultural signal is mixed: severe dryness threatens maize, coffee and sugar across Central America, Colombia and NE Brazil, while Argentina’s soy/corn belt remains the key global-market variable; Brazil has hired 4,600+ federal personnel for wildfire response. (WLRN)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric pool, grown 9% to US$1.57bn ahead of the season, stays untriggered YTD; El Niño’s tendency to dampen Atlantic activity underpins below-average storm-count expectations that cat-bond investors are watching closely. (Artemis) (The Insurer)
VenezuelaNo major new nat cat in the past 24h; the 24 Jun twin quakes (~3,535 dead, economic loss seen topping US$10bn) stay the dominant regional loss event against minimal insured cover, underscoring the sub-5%-of-GDP protection gap. (UN News)
Coming Up
25 JulMexicoINEGI publishes first-half-July CPI, the next read on whether disinflation below 3.4% holds.
28 JulPeruKeiko Fujimori inaugurated president, the country’s first woman head of state.
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision with a fresh Monetary Policy Report, after June inflation hit 6.14%.
5 AugBrazilCopom decision; markets weigh whether easing resumes from the 14.25% Selic.
6 AugMexicoBanxico rate decision, its first since ending the easing cycle at 6.50%.
On the Radar
BrazilToday’s 25% US tariff, layered on the 4 Oct election and a possible extra 12.5% from a forced-labor probe, is a live tail risk for trade-credit, political-risk and export-exposed reinsurance books into H2.
LatAmA strengthening El Niño into late 2026 tests parametric triggers and cat-bond attachment assumptions just as LatAm cat pricing softens 15–20% — a widening gap between falling rates and rising physical risk.
ColombiaThe 31 Jul BanRep decision sits at the intersection of 6.14% inflation, a strained fiscal path and an 7 Aug government transition — the region’s clearest policy tension.