Macro
LatAmFed concludes its two-day meeting today and is expected to hold at 3.75%, the pivot for the region’s currencies; the IMF pegs 2026 LAC growth at ~2.4% with regional inflation at ~4.3% as Brazil, Mexico and Chile ease. (Rio Times, BNamericas)
MexicoPeso firm around 17.45/USD with Banxico locked at 6.50% after June’s unanimous hold; markets await Thursday’s Q2 GDP flash, seen rebounding to +0.5% q/q after a soft Q1, which would validate recent peso strength. (Rio Times, BBVA Research)
BrazilTuesday’s IPCA-15 (seen easing to ~4.67% y/y) was the last inflation read before the 4–5 Aug Copom on the 14.25% Selic, with the disinflation trend keeping cut bets alive; the World Bank trimmed 2026 growth to ~1.6%. (Rio Times, Mastercard)
ArgentinaCredit risk continues to improve after Moody’s lifted the sovereign from Caa1 to B3 and inflation slowed for a third straight month, cheapening debt-service costs. (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmThe 1 July reinsurance renewal completed firmly buyer-favourable: property-cat excess-of-loss rates fell 15–20% risk-adjusted amid abundant Bermuda/London/MGA capacity, with rising ceding commissions and parametrics moving from niche to mainstream. (Artemis, Reinsurance News)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC’s parametric pool grew 9% to US$1.57bn in coverage limits ahead of the 2026 Atlantic season and remains untriggered YTD; the Livelihood Protection Policy expands to Belize, Grenada and Saint Lucia. (Artemis)
MexicoThe federal government doubled its sovereign parametric cat cover to ~US$575m at the June renewal; combined with active World Bank cat bonds, Mexico now commands ~US$1.17bn — the region’s largest sovereign parametric stack. (InsuraBeat)
LatAmAM Best keeps the LAC reinsurance segment “attractive despite a soft market,” while Fitch flags cat bonds and legacy risk solutions as tools set to widen the region’s still-shallow insurance debt market. (AM Best, Artemis)
Political
BrazilThe US 25% tariff on most Brazilian goods (in force since 22 Jul) keeps trade tension high into the 4 Oct Lula-vs-Flávio Bolsonaro race, with Lula pursuing WTO/reciprocity options amid a fragile domestic backdrop. (Rio Times, AS/COA)
PeruKeiko Fujimori was inaugurated 28 Jul (Independence Day) as Peru’s first woman president, extending the Andean rightward swing after Colombia’s conservative turn. (Colombia One, JPost)
ColombiaPresident-elect Abelardo de la Espriella prepares to take office 7 Aug with a September tax-cut plan looming; the outgoing Petro government and Congress remain locked in a late-term standoff. (AS/COA)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues to bed in the new Insurance Contract Act (Law 15.040) and consultation 14/2025, advancing toward EIOPA equivalence and Solvency II-style convergence. (Reinsurance News)
ColombiaBanRep holds its July policy meeting and publishes the quarterly Monetary Policy Report this week (decision Fri 31 Jul); the board stays the region’s hawkish outlier at 12.00% after resuming hikes post-election. (Banco de la República, Central Banking)
MexicoCNSF continues to run the LISF framework, with 2026 tax-reform measures the live capital pressure Fitch cites in tagging Mexico the region’s “deteriorating” insurance outlier; no new 24h regulatory action. (Insurance Business)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC maintains an El Niño Advisory with the event expected to strengthen through year-end; model consensus holds a 97–98% chance it persists into early spring 2027, keeping this a “super El Niño” watch. (Newsweek, NOAA CPC)
AndesObservable split impacts persist: drought across the Central American Dry Corridor, Colombia/Venezuela Caribbean and Andean altiplano, versus coastal flooding risk in northern Peru and Ecuador; coffee zones face leaf-rust and flowering disruption. (Anticipation Hub, ElevaFinca)
ChileEl Niño-driven storms that killed at least 13 and forced a state of catastrophe in Huasco/Coquimbo (since ~14 Jul) remain the region’s marquee nat cat, with damage estimated near US$400m; no material new LAC event in the past 24h. (The Watchers, CNN)
LatAmFAO and WFP warn the event could push 36 million people toward hunger and launched a first-ever joint US$202m appeal for 8.8 million across 22 countries; re/insurance implications center on parametric triggers (CCRIF, Mexico’s stack) and early-warning payouts rather than fresh claims. (TechTimes, Artemis)
Coming Up
30 JulMexicoINEGI publishes preliminary Q2 GDP (consensus ~+0.5% q/q). (Rio Times)
30 JulBrazilIBGE releases the PNAD unemployment rate (June reference, seen ~5.4%). (Rio Times)
31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision plus the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. (Banco de la República)
4–5 AugBrazilCopom’s 280th meeting decides the Selic rate (currently 14.25%). (CNN Brasil)
6 AugMexicoBanxico monetary policy announcement (Thursday, 13:00 CST). (Banxico)
On the Radar
LatAmA super El Niño peaking into Q4 keeps parametric structures (CCRIF, FONDEN successor cover, Mexico’s ~US$1.17bn stack) as the first line against drought/flood losses; watch for the first CCRIF payout of the season and any cat-bond spread widening tied to the strengthening signal.
BrazilThe 25% US tariff colliding with the 4 Oct election and a 50/50 Copom call makes the real and BRL rates the region’s key volatility source over the next fortnight.
ColombiaFriday’s BanRep decision tests whether the hawkish 12.00% outlier holds or resumes hikes into the de la Espriella transition — a signal for Andean carry trades and local-currency insurers’ investment yields.