LatAm Daily Briefing — 30 July 2026

Macro

MexicoQ2 GDP rebounded ~0.6–0.7% q/q (1.2% y/y) per INEGI’s estimate, reversing Q1’s contraction and validating the peso’s strength near 17.46/USD; a soft print would have raised doubts about the economy absorbing still-high rates. (Mexico News Daily, RTTNews)
LatAmThe Fed held at 3.50–3.75% on 29 Jul for a fifth straight meeting in a tight 9-3 vote (three regional presidents dissented for a hike) under chair Kevin Warsh; the dovish forward-guidance stance steadied regional FX — real ~5.11, peso ~17.46, COP ~3,368, sol ~3.42. (CNBC, Rio Times)
BrazilJune IPCA eased to 4.64% and mid-July IPCA-15 slowed to 4.52% y/y, reviving bets on resumed Selic cuts from 14.25% at the 4–5 Aug Copom; the Focus survey cut the 2026 inflation call to ~5.16% with year-end Selic seen at 14%. (Rio Times, Investing.com)
ColombiaBanRep remains the region’s hawkish outlier at 12.00% into tomorrow’s decision, with inflation still elevated (~6% area) amid excess demand, strong growth and rising labor costs; the bank projects inflation near 6.3% for 2026 before easing to target by end-2027. (Banco de la República)

LatAmThe 1 July reinsurance renewal stayed firmly buyer-favourable: property-cat XoL rates down 15–20%, ceding commissions up 2–3 points, and Bermuda/London/MGA capacity crowding in as parametrics move mainstream. (Insurance Business, Reinsurance News)
MexicoFitch keeps Mexico the 2026 insurance-sector outlier with a ‘deteriorating’ view — tax reforms set to pressure profitability and capital — against an otherwise ‘neutral’ regional outlook. (Reinsurance News)
ArgentinaMoody’s upgraded Argentina (to B3) with inflation slowing a third straight month, extending a run of positive sovereign-rating momentum that also lifted the FX outlook. (Atlantic Council)

BrazilThe 25% US tariff on most Brazilian goods (in force since 22 Jul) frames the 4 Oct Lula-vs-Flávio Bolsonaro race, with Lula vowing WTO and reciprocity retaliation; a fresh Milei-Lula spat has strained Mercosur after Buenos Aires and Brasília traded barbs. (Atlantic Council)
PeruKeiko Fujimori was inaugurated 28 Jul as Peru’s first woman president, extending the region’s rightward, market-friendly turn seen from Argentina to Ecuador. (AS/COA)
VenezuelaMaduro’s contested third term stays under pressure from expanded US military operations in the Caribbean tied to counter-narcotics, keeping regional political risk elevated. (Atlantic Council)

BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the new Insurance Act (Law 15.040) and its reinsurance/retrocession reforms (consultation 14/2025) on a path toward EIOPA equivalence. (Skadden)
LatAmSkadden’s prudential-solvency survey documents continued convergence across Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru toward Solvency II-style RBC regimes; Mexico’s CNSF (an IAIS member) runs its LISF framework with 2026 tax reform the live capital pressure Fitch cites. (Skadden)
ColombiaBanRep publishes its July Monetary Policy Report on 4 Aug, its next formal communication after tomorrow’s rate decision. (Banco de la República)

LatAmEl Niño has re-emerged and is strengthening fast: reporting cites the Niño-3.4 index reaching ~+2.1°C in mid-July — weeks ahead of prior record events — with forecasters warning of potential record-breaking, “super” El Niño conditions toward year-end. Confirm against NOAA CPC’s next ENSO diagnostic discussion. (Rio Times, Tech Times)
AndesPeru and Ecuador face the classic dual threat — intense coastal rainfall, flooding and landslides alongside highland water stress; the pattern typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity while elevating E-Pacific risk. (i4sea)
Central AmericaDrought risk builds across the Dry Corridor, with agricultural stress concentrated in high-value crops (coffee, sugar, palm oil); the 2015–16 super event left 3.5m food-insecure in the corridor alone, a benchmark for claims and early-warning planning. (WRI, i4sea)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC enters the season with its parametric pool up 9% to US$1.57bn and untriggered YTD; Jamaica’s upsized US$200m World Bank cat bond (the “Melissa”-replacement issue) now covers the 2026–27 seasons, with the Livelihood Protection Policy expanding to Belize, Grenada and Saint Lucia. (Artemis, Rio Times)
LatAmNo major new nat cat event reported in LAC in the past 24 hours; H1 2026 industry losses ran below average, but reinsurers flag the strengthening El Niño as the dominant H2 tail risk. (Insurance Business)

31 JulColombiaBanRep rate decision; the region’s hawkish outlier is expected to hold at 12.00%.
4 AugColombiaBanRep publishes its July Monetary Policy Report.
4–5 AugBrazilCopom rate decision on the 14.25% Selic; disinflation revives easing bets.
7 AugMexicoBanxico rate decision, with the board seen on an extended pause at 6.50%.
7 AugColombiaAbelardo de la Espriella’s presidential inauguration.

LatAmA rapidly strengthening super El Niño is the season’s defining risk: watch NOAA CPC/IRI updates for confirmation of record trajectory, and the read-through to Central American drought claims, Andean flood exposure and parametric-trigger proximity as the E-Pacific season activates.
BrazilThe 25% US tariff’s economic drag versus cooling inflation sets up a live 4–5 Aug Copom call; a dovish surprise would ripple through the real and regional carry trades ahead of the 4 Oct election.
MexicoFitch’s ‘deteriorating’ insurance view hinges on the 2026 tax reform; capital and profitability effects on CNSF-regulated carriers are worth tracking as the USMCA review backdrop persists.