LatAm Daily Briefing — 31 July 2026

Macro

MexicoQ2 GDP rebounded a stronger-than-flagged 1.5% q/q (2.1% y/y), the best quarter since late 2020, though INEGI and analysts credit roughly two-thirds of the pop to a one-off World Cup spending effect. (Mexico News Daily)
ColombiaBanRep decides today with the bank still the region’s hawkish outlier at 12.00%; a large minimum-wage-driven acceleration in inflation keeps easing off the table and a July Monetary Policy Report follows next week. (Banco de la República)
BrazilCooling prices dominate: mid-July IPCA-15 printed 0.06% m/m to drag the 12-month rate to 4.52% (inside band and below every consensus estimate), reviving bets for a further Selic cut from 14.25% at the 4–5 Aug Copom. (Rio Times)
ArgentinaDisinflation continues for a third straight month and Moody’s recent upgrade to B3 keeps the credit trajectory constructive under Milei’s post-midterm legislative boost. (Rio Times)

LatAmThe 1 July reinsurance renewal completed firmly buyer-favourable: property-cat excess-of-loss rates down 15–20%, ceding commissions up 2–3 points, and Bermuda, London and MGA capital deepening supply as cedents gained pricing and structuring leverage. (Global Reinsurance, Insurance Business)
PeruAM Best maintained a stable outlook on the insurance segment, citing ongoing profitability, sound reinsurance protection and good conditions into the 2026 renewals. (Business Wire)
LatAmAM Best turned positive on Interplus Re after four years of growth, and reaffirmed a stable outlook on Guatemala’s industry — a broadly constructive regional ratings tone despite the soft market. (Insurance Business)

ChileJosé Antonio Kast’s administration, in office since March, continues to advance a pro-business agenda of flexible labour rules, corporate-tax cuts and lighter regulation, part of a broader regional rightward tilt. (JPost)
BrazilThe 25% US tariff in force since 22 July frames an increasingly polarised run-up to the 4 October Lula-versus-Flávio Bolsonaro race, keeping the real and trade policy in focus. (Atlantic Council)
VenezuelaPolitical repression and post-earthquake recovery continue to weigh, with pressure compounded by US operations in the Caribbean; the June quakes remain the year’s defining regional shock. (Rio Times)

BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the Insurance Act (Law 15.040) and its regulatory sandbox as the market moves toward EIOPA/Solvency II-style convergence. (Skadden)
MexicoCNSF (an IAIS member) runs the Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime, with the 2026 tax reform remaining the live capital-pressure point cited by rating agencies. (Skadden)
LatAmNo new 24-hour regulatory action; the standing story is documented convergence toward Solvency II-style RBC frameworks across Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Peru. (Skadden)

LatAmENSO phase: NOAA/CPC and GFDL July guidance have El Niño present and strengthening, with SPEAR ensembles pointing to a very strong event peaking late fall/early winter 2026 and a ~97% chance of persisting into early spring 2027. (NOAA GFDL, NOAA CPC)
Central AmericaObservable impacts skew to drought across Central America, the northern Andes, the Amazon and Pantanal, with excess rain in the southern cone; Peru/Ecuador coastal flooding risk is expected to intensify from Q4 2026 into Q1 2027. (Rio Times)
LatAmAgricultural stress is building: analysts warn up to 36 million people face heightened hunger risk before the peak, and Swiss Re flags a roughly US$6bn crop-protection gap in the region as the event develops. (TechTimes, WRI)
CaribbeanRe/insurance implications: CCRIF grew its parametric pool 9% to US$1.57bn ahead of a super-El Niño hurricane season and remains untriggered year-to-date, keeping parametric capacity and early-warning triggers front of mind. (Artemis)
LatAmNat cat in the past 24h: no major new event confirmed today; the standing losses remain Venezuela’s late-June quakes (economic loss estimated above US$10bn, insured share undetermined) and early-July flooding on Ecuador’s Zamora River. (Wikipedia, OCHA)

4 AugColombiaBanRep publishes its July Monetary Policy Report following today’s rate decision.
5 AugBrazilCopom concludes its two-day meeting; markets weigh a further cut from the 14.25% Selic.
6 AugMexicoBanxico rate decision, expected to hold at 6.50% in its extended pause.
11 AugBrazilIBGE releases July IPCA, the next test of the disinflation trend.
13 AugLatAmNOAA CPC issues its monthly ENSO diagnostic update on El Niño strength and duration.

LatAmA strengthening super-El Niño peaking into Q4 keeps parametric triggers, cat-bond pricing and the region’s crop-protection gap in focus, even as the current Atlantic season stays quiet relative to the elevated E-Pacific.
BrazilThe 25% US tariff and the polarised 4 October election are a twin overhang for the real, sovereign risk premium and cross-border trade flows.
MexicoWith the Q2 GDP bounce heavily World Cup-driven, the durability of the rebound and the tax-reform capital pressure on insurers are the questions to watch into the Banxico decision.