Macro
BrazilEconomists cut their year-end Selic forecast to 13.75% (from 14.00%) and trimmed the 2026 inflation estimate to 5.03% — a fifth straight decline — on the eve of tomorrow’s Copom decision, as Latin America’s largest economy shows mounting signs of cooling. (Bloomberg)
ColombiaThe peso was the region’s standout mover, USD/COP jumping about 3.1% to 3,231 as traders braced for late-day BanRep minutes following a sharp cooldown in the prior export data; the COLCAP eased 0.31%. (Rio Times)
MexicoConsumer confidence data lands today (consensus 44.1) with gross fixed investment tomorrow, keeping the peso — firm at ~17.29/USD on a soft dollar (DXY hugging 100) — and the Mexbol sensitive to the nearshoring demand story; the IPC slipped 0.35%. (Rio Times)
LatAmA US tech-led risk rally (S&P 500 +1.48%, near record) and a soft dollar gave regional FX breathing room, but local boards barely moved ahead of a heavy data calendar; Brent slumped ~4.65% to $85.93 while copper firmed 2.88% and coffee fell 6.84%. (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmThe 1 July renewal cleared firmly in buyers’ favour: property-cat excess-of-loss risk-adjusted rates fell 15–20% and ceding commissions rose two to three points as Bermuda, London and MGA capacity crowded into the region and parametric products went mainstream. (Commercial Risk, Insurance Business)
LatAmThe protection gap remains stark: of roughly US$11.6bn in 2024 insured-nat-cat exposure only US$1.5bn was actually insured, with penetration below 5% of GDP — the structural driver behind rising reinsurance demand. (Insurance Business)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric pool holds at US$1.57bn of coverage limits (grown 9% ahead of the 2026 season) and remains untriggered year to date, positioned against a super-El Niño hazard backdrop. (Artemis)
LatAmCat-bond issuance could reach around US$20bn in 2026 — potentially the second-largest year on record — with investors drawn by equity-like returns and low correlation to broader markets. (CNBC)
Political
ColombiaFar-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella, who won June’s runoff on record turnout, takes office on 7 August, completing the handover from leftist Gustavo Petro and extending the region’s rightward turn. (Buenos Aires Times, Colombia One)
BrazilThe 4 October first round — Lula seeking a fourth term against Flávio Bolsonaro — remains the region’s marquee electoral event, framed by the 25% US tariff on most Brazilian goods and repeated Trump interventions. (AS/COA)
LatAmWith Brazil and Mexico the notable exceptions, the 2026 supercycle has left right-leaning leaders across most of the region, from Argentina to Colombia to Peru; analysts read it as anti-incumbency on security, inflation and corruption rather than a clean ideological realignment. (AS/COA)
Regulatory
ColombiaBanRep’s monetary-policy minutes from the 31 July hold at 12.00% publish late today, the key window into the board’s thinking after its surprise 4–3 split against a 12.50% consensus and the launch of a US$4bn reserve-accumulation programme (first put-option auction 3 August). (Rio Times)
MexicoBanxico announces on 6 August with consensus for a hold at 6.50%, the board having signalled its easing cycle is complete; the CNSF continues to run its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime with 2026 tax reform the live capital pressure. (Rio Times)
BrazilSUSEP continues to bed in the new Insurance Act (Law 15.040) and consultation toward EIOPA equivalence, with the Letras de Risco de Seguro regime operational as a domestic ILS channel; Skadden’s survey documents region-wide convergence toward Solvency II-style capital regimes. (Skadden)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC’s El Niño advisory remains in force: El Niño is favoured to persist and strengthen through the end of 2026, with forecasters framing 2026 as a potential super-El Niño cycle; the next ENSO diagnostic discussion is scheduled for 13 August. (NOAA CPC, Columbia Climate School)
Puerto RicoThe governor declared a drought emergency, activating the National Guard and ordering 48-hour water-rationing cycles across the northeast (Río Grande, Canóvanas and nearby communities); more than 82% of the island was under abnormally dry or drought conditions by late July. (Rio Times, De Último Minuto)
Central AmericaThe dominant El Niño pattern is driving drought across Central America, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and the Pantanal, with wildfire, hydro-generation and agricultural stress the near-term transmission channels; corn (+7.49%) and sugar (+3.00%) firmed on the tape while coffee fell. (i4sea, Rio Times)
AndesThe Pacific coasts of Ecuador and Peru face a combined risk profile — intense coastal rainfall, flooding and landslides alongside highland water stress and temperature shocks — the classic El Niño split that stresses both parametric flood and drought triggers. (i4sea)
CaribbeanNo new major LAC nat cat in the past 24 hours beyond the intensifying Puerto Rico drought; CCRIF’s US$1.57bn parametric pool remains untriggered year to date, with rapid-payout excess-rainfall and cyclone covers on standby into the season. (Artemis)
Coming Up
5 AugBrazilCopom decides on the 14.25% Selic; a fourth consecutive 25bp cut to 14.00% is consensus.
6 AugMexicoBanxico announcement at 13:00 CST; consensus is a hold at 6.50%.
7 AugColombiaAbelardo de la Espriella is sworn in as president, with a September tax package flagged.
11 AugBrazilIBGE releases July IPCA, the last major inflation read before September’s Copom.
13 AugLatAmNOAA CPC issues its next monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion.
On the Radar
Policy divergence into a soft marketBrazil cutting toward 14.00%, Mexico parked at 6.50%, Chile at 4.50% and Colombia holding at 12.00% leaves the widest intra-regional policy spread in years, all priced against property-cat rates down 15–20% at 1 July. Watch whether that soft pricing holds as cedents build 1 January structures into a super-El Niño fourth quarter.
Correlated water stressPuerto Rico’s drought, Central American and Andean rainfall deficits, Amazon/Pantanal dryness and Panama Canal draft all key off the same El Niño signal — one peril producing correlated marine, energy, agro and sovereign-liquidity claims, exactly the correlation parametric structures absorb least well.
Colombian FX and the handoverA ~3% one-day COP slide, a fresh reserve-accumulation programme and a rightward government transition on 7 August combine to make Colombian assets the region’s most event-heavy in the near term; watch the BanRep minutes tone and whether COP weakness pressures the September decision.