Macro
BrazilCopom decides tonight; 38 of 42 economists in a Reuters poll and ~75% of B3 options see a fourth straight 25bp cut to 14.00% from 14.25%, with guarded forward guidance as inflation eases. (Reuters/933 The Drive)
MexicoBanxico announces Thursday, with consensus for a hold at 6.50% after signalling the easing cycle is done; the peso firmed 0.47% to 17.26/USD, a level last seen mid-July and among the region’s best QTD performers. (Rio Times, FXStreet)
ArgentinaMilei’s disinflation holds, with monthly CPI near 1.9% and the 2026 annual run-rate around 33%; the government booked a primary surplus of ~0.6% of GDP in H1 and the central bank survey sees ~3.4% growth. (Buenos Aires Herald, Rio Times)
ColombiaThe peso was the hemisphere’s worst mover, sliding 3.47% to 3,242/USD ahead of late BanRep minutes and just before the next inflation print, keeping COP the region’s high-beta risk gauge. (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmFitch keeps a broadly ‘neutral’ 2026 outlook for regional insurance on easing inflation and lower rates, but flags Mexico as the lone ‘deteriorating’ market as tax reform pressures profitability and capital. (Reinsurance News)
BrazilAM Best maintains a negative outlook on Brazil’s reinsurance segment, citing political uncertainty and tax-reform measures weighing on performance even as SUSEP beds in the new Insurance Act. (AM Best)
LatAmFitch also turned the global reinsurance outlook ‘deteriorating’ on abundant capacity and price erosion; international carriers keep channelling property-cat capacity into the region despite penetration below 5% of GDP. (Reinsurance News)
BrazilThe real weakened 0.79% to 5.128/USD, worst in the regional table, on pre-Copom hedging rather than any risk-off flow. (Rio Times)
Political
BrazilThe US 50%/25% tariff fight continues to frame the 4 Oct first round; a Quaest/Folha poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 45%–37% in a hypothetical runoff, with analysts calling the levies an electoral gift to the incumbent. (Al Jazeera)
ColombiaPresident-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is inaugurated Friday in Cali (not Bogotá) — a first outside the capital in over a century — with Milei, Noboa, Peña and Fujimori attending and the city under heavy security. (Colombia One)
ChileKast’s administration, in office since March, keeps pushing a pro-business, security-focused agenda, reinforcing the region’s rightward tilt ahead of Colombia’s handover. (Americas Quarterly)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues rolling out updates under the Insurance Act (Law 15.040), standardising contract, reinsurance and mutual-protection rules through 2026 as the Letras de Risco de Seguro (LRS) ILS channel operates. (ICLG)
MexicoCNSF (an IAIS member) runs the Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework, with the 2026 tax reform the live capital pressure Fitch cites as the region’s ‘deteriorating’ outlier; no new 24h action. (Reinsurance News)
ColombiaBanRep’s US$4bn reserve-accumulation programme (launched with a 3 Aug put-option auction) remains the live FX-policy change; late minutes from the 31 Jul hold at 12.00% are the day’s regulatory focus. (Rio Times)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA’s CPC has an El Niño Advisory in force: El Niño has formed and is forecast to strengthen to moderate/strong through end-2026, with a ~97% chance it persists into early 2027 and forecasters flagging a possible record-tier “Super El Niño.” (NOAA, Newsweek)
AndesThe classic dipole is setting up: drought risk across Central America, the northern Andes, the Amazon and Pantanal, versus flooding on the Peru/Ecuador coast and the southern cone; FAO/WFP warn up to 36 million people face hunger and a moderate-strong event could cut Andean GDP 0.6–1.7pp. (Tech Times, i4sea)
CaribbeanAhead of the peak Atlantic season, CCRIF grew its parametric pool 9% to US$1.57bn and rolled out a new Livelihood Protection Policy (14-day payouts on extreme rain/wind) for Belize, Grenada and Saint Lucia; Jamaica plans to renew cover alongside its US$200m IBRD cat bond. (Artemis, Artemis)
VenezuelaRecovery from the June twin earthquakes grinds on, with the reported toll above 6,100 dead, ~61,000 hospitalised and 80% of buildings collapsed in La Guaira — a reminder of the region’s stark protection gap; no new material nat cat event in the past 24h. (Wikipedia)
Coming Up
5 AugBrazilCopom rate decision tonight; consensus 25bp cut to 14.00%. (933 The Drive)
6 AugMexicoBanxico decision; consensus hold at 6.50%. (Mexico Business)
7 AugColombiaAbelardo de la Espriella inaugurated president in Cali. (Colombia One)
7 AugMexicoINEGI publishes July CPI (standard calendar). (INEGI)
11 AugBrazilIBGE releases July IPCA inflation (standard calendar). (IBGE)
On the Radar
LatAmA strengthening El Niño into a “Super” event is the region’s dominant multi-week risk: watch Andean/Central American drought signals and Peru–Ecuador coastal flooding for early parametric triggers and CCRIF/agri claims.
ColombiaCOP’s 3.5% one-day drop plus the Cali inauguration and BanRep minutes make Colombian assets the region’s highest-beta watch into the weekend.
BrazilThe 4 Oct election and unresolved US tariff track keep BRL and the reinsurance outlook headline-sensitive; a hawkish Copom communiqué tonight could extend the real’s underperformance.