Macro
MexicoBanxico decides today; 34 of 35 analysts in a Reuters poll see a hold at 6.50%, extending the pause after the board declared its easing cycle finished, with headline inflation slowed to ~3.37% but core still sticky. (Investing.com/Reuters, Mexico Business News)
BrazilCopom cut the Selic 25bp to 14.00% last night, its fourth straight quarter-point reduction (100bp of easing since March), with benign inflation prints cementing the move; economists have trimmed year-end Selic to 13.75% and 2026 inflation to 5.03%. (Bloomberg, Rio Times)
ArgentinaCautious optimism has curdled into anxiety as car sales collapse and savers hoard dollars despite the minister’s celebrations, keeping the peso and reserves the market’s key stress gauges. (Rio Times)
BrazilThe improved outlook is broad-based: the 2026 inflation estimate fell for a fifth straight week and the year-end benchmark forecast dropped to 13.75% as Latin America’s largest economy shows mounting signs of cooling. (Bloomberg)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmFitch keeps a broadly ‘neutral’ 2026 outlook for regional insurance on easing inflation and lower rates, but flags Mexico as the lone ‘deteriorating’ market as tax reform pressures profitability and capital. (Reinsurance News)
LatAmThe region enters H2 2026 with reinsurance capacity that continues to favour buyers, per Howden Re: proportional capacity is plentiful and ceding commissions rose two to three additional points as reinsurers competed for cedent portfolios. (Insurance Business)
LatAmFitch says recent catastrophe-bond and insurance-risk-security issuance is a strategic opening to widen the region’s insurance debt market, now reshaped by regulatory reform, private-credit expansion and fintech. (Artemis)
BrazilAM Best keeps a negative outlook on Brazil’s reinsurance segment even as Chile, Mexico and Panama read stable, citing political uncertainty and tax-reform drag on performance. (Reinsurance News)
Political
ColombiaPresident-elect Abelardo de la Espriella, a hardline right-wing newcomer who beat Gustavo Petro, is inaugurated tomorrow in a locked-down Cali, having completed an 18-member, gender-balanced cabinet. (The Media Line)
LatAmA conservative shift is sweeping the region — Chile, Colombia and Peru have all turned right — as electorates punish incumbents over security, inflation and corruption. (JPost)
PeruPeru has returned Fujimorismo to the presidency after years of instability and is tightening migration controls, part of the same anti-incumbent, law-and-order wave. (Rio Times)
BrazilThe US tariff dispute continues to frame the 4 October first round, with Lula seeking a fourth term against a fragmented right. (Atlantic Council)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP’s Resolution 494/2026 gives reinsurers operating in Brazil further clarity on outstanding reinsurance questions, layering onto the new Insurance Act (Law 15.040) rollout. (Lexology)
MexicoCNSF (an IAIS member) runs the Solvency II-equivalent LISF framework, with the 2026 tax reform the live capital pressure Fitch cites as the region’s ‘deteriorating’ outlier; no new 24h action. (Reinsurance News)
LatAmIFRS 17 adoption stays uneven: Brazil and Mexico have implemented it, Argentina and Chile have delayed, and Peru is expected to follow, keeping cross-border comparability a work in progress. (RNA Analytics)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA’s CPC keeps El Niño active and strengthening: an 82% probability for May–July rising to 96% by December–February, an 81% chance the event turns “very strong” in Oct–Dec, and ~97% odds it persists into early 2027; the next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion lands 13 August. (NOAA CPC, Rio Times)
AndesThe classic dipole is entrenched: drought across the Central American Dry Corridor, the Colombian/Venezuelan Caribbean and the Andean altiplano, versus flooding on the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru; Andean GDP could fall up to 1.7 points and ~50% of LATAM hydro power is at risk. (Anticipation Hub, Rio Times)
LatAmAnticipatory action is scaling but underfunded: 22 countries now have active or developing frameworks with US$37.8m in pre-arranged financing, and the IFRC-DREF has released CHF1.2m (~US$1.5m) for early drought action in three countries. (Anticipation Hub, IFRC)
CaribbeanWith the 2026 Atlantic season forecast at up to 14 named storms and three major hurricanes and now entering its more active phase, CCRIF’s ~US$1.57bn parametric pool remains untriggered YTD as a first line of sovereign defence. (UNICEF)
VenezuelaRecovery from the June twin earthquakes (Mw 7.2 foreshock, Mw 7.5 mainshock near Caracas) grinds on as a reminder of the region’s stark protection gap; no new material nat cat event reported in the past 24 hours. (Wikipedia)
Coming Up
6 AugMexicoBanxico rate decision today; consensus hold at 6.50%.
7 AugColombiaAbelardo de la Espriella inaugurated president in Cali.
7 AugMexicoINEGI publishes July CPI (standard calendar).
11 AugBrazilIBGE releases July IPCA inflation.
13 AugLatAmNOAA CPC issues its next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.
On the Radar
El Niño hardening into a “Super” eventA strengthening, potentially very-strong El Niño is the region’s dominant multi-week risk; watch Central American and Andean drought signals and Peru–Ecuador coastal flooding for early parametric triggers and agri/CCRIF claims into Q4.
Banxico’s forward guidanceWith a hold near-certain, the language on whether the pause is truly terminal — and any peso reaction — is the day’s key market signal.
Colombia’s handoverThe Cali inauguration under heavy security, the shape of de la Espriella’s cabinet and a flagged September tax package make Colombian assets the region’s highest-beta watch into the weekend.