Macro
BrazilThe mid-August Focus survey holds 2026 inflation at ~5.02% and the year-end Selic at 13.75%, after Copom’s 5 August cut to 14.00% (a fourth straight 25bp move); the market keeps 2026 GDP growth near 2.2% as the easing cycle slowly extends. (Prensa Latina) (Bloomberg)
MexicoBanxico stays parked at 6.50% after its 6 August hold — its first unanimous vote — with the board signalling the easing cycle is effectively done and 3% target convergence pushed to Q4 2027; the peso holds near a one-year high around 17.0/USD on a soft dollar. (Central Banking) (FocusEconomics)
ColombiaBanRep remains the region’s hawkish outlier, holding at 12.00% after July inflation eased to ~6.03%, still well above target, while the central bank runs a reserve-accumulation programme to rebuild buffers. (Rio Times) (BBVA Research)
LatAmGoldman Sachs projects only modest regional growth for 2026 amid political upheaval in Venezuela, with inflation across the region seen around 4.3% as Brazil, Mexico and Chile move at different speeds on policy. (Goldman Sachs) (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
ColombiaThe 10 August M7.4 Chocó earthquake (300+ dead, 4,500+ injured) is expected to drive an insured loss across the LatAm market, but analysts see the industry hit contained to the low hundreds of millions given the deep, remote epicentre and sub-5% penetration. (Reinsurance News) (Business Insurance)
LatAmReinsurance capacity entering H2 2026 continues to favour buyers, with plentiful July-renewal capacity, rising ceding commissions and appetite spreading into casualty, specialty and parametric lines. (Insurance Business)
LatAmGuy Carpenter added a two-person health reinsurance team for its Latin America practice, a signal of brokers deepening bench in specialty/life-health lines as property-cat pricing softens. (Insurance Business)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC’s parametric risk pool stands at US$1.57bn of coverage limits (+9%) with new members ahead of the Atlantic season and no triggers activated year-to-date; Jamaica has signalled intent to renew its coverage. (Artemis)
Political
BrazilLula and Flávio Bolsonaro have launched campaigns into a tight 4 October vote framed by the US tariff fight, with foreign-interference a central Lula theme; the Mercosur rift with Argentina persists after Milei called Lula a “thief”. (Prensa Latina)
ColombiaPresident de la Espriella continues to harden security in his first weeks while managing the Chocó quake recovery, with the inherited 2027 budget hole complicating his wealth-tax repeal pledge. (The Media Line)
LatAmThe regional conservative supercycle holds (Milei, Kast, de la Espriella, Fujimori), read by analysts as anti-incumbent, security-driven swings rather than a clean ideological realignment. (AS/COA) (The Media Line)
Regulatory
ColombiaBanRep’s reserve-accumulation programme remains the live FX-policy change, pairing a 12.00% hawkish hold with buffer rebuilding as fiscal financing needs mount into 2027. (BBVA Research)
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the Insurance Act (Law 15.040) and Resolution 494/2026, with the LRS ILS channel live and the regime shifting toward a risk-based, Solvency II-style framework. (Reinsurance News)
MexicoThe CNSF runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime, with the 2026 tax reform the live capital pressure keeping Mexico the region’s lone “deteriorating” insurance market per Fitch. (FocusEconomics)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC holds an El Niño Advisory (issued 11 June): the probability of a very strong event in October–December jumped to 95% in the August assessment, with the RONI median at ~+2.66°C — potentially historic strength by late 2026. (The Watchers) (teleSUR)
AndesEl Niño is turning observable: the Pacific coasts of Peru and Ecuador face intensifying rainfall, flooding and landslide risk, while highland agriculture and the northern Andes/Colombian reservoirs face water stress; the Andean region’s GDP could shed 0.6–1.7pp in a strong scenario. (i4sea) (Rio Times)
Central AmericaDrought is concentrating across the Dry Corridor, the northern Andes and the Brazilian Amazon/Pantanal, raising agricultural stress for corn, coffee and sugar; Brazilian coffee traders face asymmetric supply-tightening pressure. (WRI) (Rio Times)
CaribbeanThe super El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity even as E-Pacific risk stays elevated, sustaining softer cat pricing; CCRIF’s US$1.57bn pool is untriggered YTD and parametric products keep gaining traction as a redistribution — not removal — of risk. (Artemis) (teleSUR)
LatAmNo major new nat cat event in the past 24 hours; the Chocó quake (10 Aug) remains the dominant loss event and no CCRIF parametric triggers have activated. (The Watchers)
Coming Up
21 AugMexicoINEGI publishes final Q2 2026 GDP, confirming the growth read Banxico is watching. (Rio Times)
24 AugMexicoINEGI releases first-half August CPI, the key inflation read into the September Banxico decision. (FocusEconomics)
25 AugBrazilIBGE publishes the IPCA-15 mid-month inflation print ahead of the September Copom. (Prensa Latina)
1 SepBrazilIBGE releases Q2 2026 GDP, the region’s marquee growth print. (Prensa Latina)
10 SepLatAmNOAA CPC issues its monthly ENSO diagnostic update, the next read on super-El Niño strength. (The Watchers)
On the Radar
ColombiaChocó quake claims development: with insurable exposure pegged at US$2–4bn but actual industry loss likely a small fraction, watch loss-creep on business interruption and infrastructure lines as adjusters reach remote areas.
LatAmSuper El Niño transmission: the gap between a historic ENSO signal and still-soft cat pricing is the key tension — Andean flooding, Dry Corridor/Amazon drought and coffee/sugar supply stress could reprice agricultural and parametric risk faster than property-cat.
BrazilElection-tariff feedback loop: the 4 October Lula-vs-Flávio race under a 25% US tariff, plus the Mercosur rift with Milei, keeps BRL and sovereign risk premia sensitive into September data.