Macro
MexicoECLAC cut Mexico’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% (from 1.5%) on 20 August, feeding a “another lost decade” narrative even as the peso holds near a one-year high around 17.0/USD with Banxico parked at 6.50%. (FocusEconomics) (ECLAC)
BrazilThe mid-August Focus survey holds 2026 inflation near 5.03% and year-end Selic at 13.75% after Copom’s 5 August cut to 14.00%; a Datafolha poll shows the economy cooling as the region’s largest slows into the October vote. (Bloomberg) (Rio Times)
ArgentinaMilei’s model shows August strain: the BCRA netted just +US$330m in the first ten business days (≈US$33m/day vs July’s ~US$103m) as the peso trades near its record low and Congress lines up a central-bank reform vote. (Rio Times) (Buenos Aires Herald)
LatAmECLAC keeps regional 2026 growth at a modest 2.3% with inflation around 4.3%, as Brazil, Mexico and Chile ease at different speeds amid trade and Venezuela-driven uncertainty. (ECLAC) (Goldman Sachs)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmAM Best says Latin American P/C insurers are entering a softer market but earnings stay resilient, with Brazil, Chile, Peru and Uruguay on neutral outlooks on strong solvency and conservative investment portfolios. (Insurance Journal)
ColombiaThe 10 August M7.4 Chocó quake still anchors the loss picture (insurable US$2–4bn, industry hit likely contained to the low hundreds of millions on sub-5% penetration); steelmakers are donating 1,000 tonnes of steel for reconstruction. (Reinsurance News) (Rio Times)
LatAmThe H2 renewal continues to favour buyers, with broad Bermuda/London/MGA capacity, rising ceding commissions and parametrics moving from niche to a mainstream coverage option across the region. (Insurance Business) (Intelligent Insurer)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC’s parametric pool stands at US$1.57bn of limits (+9%) with new utility members ahead of the Atlantic season and no triggers activated YTD; Cayman is weighing its own cat bond. (Artemis) (Artemis)
Political
BrazilA Datafolha poll (18–20 Aug) shows Lula leading all likely challengers in second-round scenarios — 47–40 over Caiado, 48–38 over Zema, 47–37 over Santos — into a tight 4 October vote framed by the US tariff fight. (Rio Times)
ArgentinaCongress faces a central-bank reform vote while exporters eye a US beef quota; roughly six in ten disapprove of the economic course, though the opposition is not clearly benefiting. (Rio Times) (Rio Times)
LatAmThe regional conservative supercycle holds (Milei, Kast, de la Espriella, Fujimori), reading as anti-incumbent, security-driven swings; sentiment this weekend is “wary self-preservation” as institutions are watched closely. (Rio Times) (Americas Quarterly)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the Insurance Act (Law 15.040) and Resolution 494/2026, with the LRS ILS channel live as the regime shifts toward a risk-based, Solvency II-style framework. (CMS) (Lefosse)
MexicoThe CNSF runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime, with the 2026 tax reform the live capital pressure keeping Mexico the region’s lone “deteriorating” insurance market per Fitch. (DAC Beachcroft) (Insurance Journal)
LatAmFIDES and Insuralex published their 2026 Insurance Regulatory Update for Latin America, tracking uneven Solvency II / IFRS 17 convergence across the region (Brazil and Mexico in, Argentina and Chile delayed, Peru pending). (Insuralex)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC holds an El Niño Advisory (issued 11 June); the August assessment puts a very strong event above 90% for October–December, with a ~69% chance of a historic RONI of +2.5°C or higher — which would exceed every El Niño since 1950. (StormBag/NOAA) (WMO)
PanamaThe Panama Canal will cut daily transits from 3 September (36→34 ships, then 32 from 15 September) as El Niño-fuelled drought drops May–August rainfall 34% below average — a fresh supply-chain and marine-cargo risk. (France 24) (Euronews)
Central AmericaHonduras placed 80% of the country, including the capital, on drought alert as El Niño scorches harvests and kills livestock, deepening Dry Corridor stress for corn and coffee. (Phys.org)
PeruTorrential rains since 14 August keep Lima and southern regions under a state of emergency, with ~11,181 families (115,665 people) affected by floods and landslides — El Niño Costero layered on the broader Pacific warming. (Al Jazeera) (ACT Alliance)
LatAmNo major new nat cat event in the past 24 hours; the 10 August Chocó quake remains the dominant loss event and no CCRIF parametric triggers have activated, even as super-El Niño suppresses Atlantic activity vs elevated E-Pacific risk. (Lockton) (Swiss Re)
Coming Up
24 AugMexicoINEGI publishes first-half August CPI, the key inflation read into the September Banxico decision.
26 AugBrazilIBGE releases the IPCA-15 mid-month inflation print ahead of the September Copom.
1 SepBrazilIBGE publishes Q2 2026 GDP, the region’s marquee growth print.
3 SepPanamaPanama Canal begins cutting daily transits (36→34 ships) on worsening El Niño drought.
10 SepLatAmNOAA CPC issues its monthly ENSO diagnostic update, the next read on super-El Niño strength.
On the Radar
PanamaCanal transit cuts from 3 September are the first hard, quantified El Niño economic hit of the cycle; watch for marine-cargo delay claims, contingent business-interruption exposure and knock-on freight-rate pressure across LAC trade lanes.
LatAmSuper El Niño transmission: the gap between a potentially historic ENSO signal and still-soft cat pricing is the key tension — Andean flooding, Dry Corridor/Amazon drought and coffee/sugar/corn stress could reprice agricultural and parametric risk faster than property-cat.
ColombiaChocó quake loss development: with insurable exposure at US$2–4bn but actual industry loss likely a small fraction, watch loss-creep on business-interruption and infrastructure lines as adjusters reach remote areas.