LatAm Daily Briefing — 24 August 2026

Macro

MexicoThe peso opened the week near a one-year high (~16.92–17.06/USD, band low 16.89) as a soft dollar and Banxico’s 6.50% pause hold it firm; today brings mid-month CPI (seen near 3%) and economic activity, the first test of whether sticky prices delay any further easing. (Rio Times)
BrazilThe real trades ~5.14–5.16/USD with the Selic at 14.00% after the 5 Aug cut; the BCB has lifted its 2026 GDP call to ~2% (from 1.6%) on agriculture and pre-election stimulus, and Wednesday’s IPCA-15 (cons. 4.5%) is the week’s clearest local-rates trigger. (Rio Times)
ArgentinaReserves have climbed to ~US$47.9bn (highest since 2019, more than double Milei’s starting point), letting the BCRA ease its grip on the peso (~1,493–1,499/USD) even as net reserves stay only marginally positive against the US$4bn IMF accumulation target ahead of October midterms. (Buenos Aires Times, PIIE)
LatAmECLAC holds regional 2026 growth at ~2.3% (Mexico a soft ~0.6%) with inflation around 4.3%, as Brazil and Peru gain momentum while Mexico and Chile slow. (ECLAC)

LatAmRegional bourses opened the week firmly: Bovespa ~171,032 (+1.85%), Mexico’s IPC ~65,729 (+2.14%), Merval +1.30%, BVL Perú +2.60%, with gold at ~US$4,461 (+1.78%) and corn spiking ~10%. (Rio Times)
LatAmThe 1 July reinsurance renewal stayed decisively buyer-favourable: property-cat XL rates fell 15–20% and parametrics gained traction as Bermuda, London and MGA capacity deepened the supply base per Howden Re. (Artemis, Insurance Business)
LatAmFitch expects cat bonds and legacy risk solutions to widen Latin America’s insurance debt market, with a record Q2 global cat-bond quarter (48 deals, US$11.3bn of new risk capital) and a very active Q4 pipeline expected. (Artemis)

BrazilLula’s runoff lead over Flávio Bolsonaro has narrowed to a statistical tie (Quaest ~43–40, down from ~44–39 on 5 Aug) with Lula still ahead in the first round (~38–31) into the 4 Oct vote; Flávio launched with backing from Milei and Netanyahu. (Al Jazeera, Rio Times)
ArgentinaMilei’s stabilization holds heading into October midterms (inflation ~33%, reserves at a seven-year high), the Atlantic Council framing the vote as the plan’s first real test at the ballot box. (Atlantic Council)
LatAmThe regional conservative supercycle (Milei, Kast, de la Espriella, Fujimori) holds as an anti-incumbency, security-driven swing continues to reshape the political map.

BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the Insurance Act (Law 15.040) via Resolution 494/2026, clarifying rules for reinsurers operating in Brazil while the LRS/ILS channel stays live. (Skadden)
BrazilNew CNSP rules recast reinsurance, coinsurance, foreign-currency transactions and placement of insurance abroad, tightening the framework local and admitted reinsurers must operate under. (DAC Beachcroft)
MexicoThe CNSF continues to run its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime (an IAIS member), with the 2026 tax reform still the live capital pressure and the lone regional “deteriorating” insurance market per Fitch. (Skadden)

LatAmNOAA/GFDL model guidance now shows a strengthening El Niño, with CPC putting a very strong event above 90% for fall–winter 2026–27 (up from 81% in July) and a ~69% chance of a historic Oct–Dec peak (RONI ≥ +2.5°C), forecast to intensify through the fall and peak Oct 2026–Jan 2027. (GFDL/NOAA)
PeruThe government declared a 60-day state of emergency across 607 districts in 16 Andean and Amazonian regions (gazetted 13 Aug) over El Niño drought and water-shortage risk into the 2026–27 rainy season, while Lima’s coast faces flooding/landslide exposure. (teleSUR, Crisis24)
CaribbeanEl Niño’s wind shear is suppressing the Atlantic season (CSU/NOAA well below-normal), a benign backdrop for CCRIF, whose parametric pool grew 9% to US$1.57bn and stays untriggered YTD while Cayman weighs its own cat bond. (Artemis — CSU, Artemis — CCRIF)
ColombiaNo new nat cat in the past 24h; recovery from the 10 Aug M7.4 Chocó quake (300+ dead) continues, an event still seen driving a contained LatAm insured loss (industry hit in the low hundreds of millions on sub-5% penetration; insurable US$2–4bn). (ReliefWeb, Swiss Re)

Aug 24 (today)Mexicomid-month CPI (seen ~3%) and economic activity, plus Brazil’s BCB Focus readout, set the week’s rate-repricing tone.
Aug 25Mexicocurrent account balance lands, with Paraguay’s rate decision (held at 5.5% expected) also on the LatAm calendar.
Aug 26BrazilIPCA-15 mid-month CPI (cons. 4.5%), the week’s most market-moving release for the real and local curves.
Aug 27Brazilunemployment (5.4%) and current account, alongside Mexico’s trade balance and jobs data.
Aug 28Chileunemployment rate (cons. 9.2%), with Brazil’s IGP-M inflation and producer prices closing the week.

BrazilA tightening 4 Oct race (Lula’s runoff lead now a statistical tie) leaves local rates and the real exposed to political headlines as much as to Wednesday’s CPI; watch for any US-tariff escalation into the campaign.
AndesA potentially historic El Niño peaking Oct–Jan is the region’s dominant slow-burn risk: drought stress on Central America, Colombia and NE Brazil (corn, coffee, sugar) against coastal flooding exposure in Peru and Ecuador — a live case for parametric and agricultural cover.
ArgentinaWith reserves at a seven-year high but net reserves barely positive against the IMF target, any renewed FX volatility before October midterms would test Milei’s decision to let the peso float more freely.