Macro
ColombiaAnalysts in BanRep’s monthly survey lifted 2026 year-end inflation expectations to 6.6% (from 6.3% in April), while the peso held its strongest level in more than seven years, with the TRM near 3,053 and the interbank dollar around 3,062. (Rio Times)
BrazilThe central bank’s Focus survey cut the 2026 growth forecast to 1.95% and kept 2026 inflation at 5.02% (above the target ceiling) for a second straight week, with one more Selic cut to 13.75% penciled in for September after August’s move to 14.00%. (Rio Times) Mid-month IPCA-15 for August is seen falling 0.31% m/m, easing the 12-month rate to about 4.34%. (Rio Times)
MexicoBanxico remains parked at 6.50% with its easing cycle done; first-half-July headline inflation cooled to 3.10% and core to 3.95%, with the bank guiding 3% target convergence only by Q4 2027. (Trading Economics)
ArgentinaThe mood stayed brittle as the wholesale peso touched 1,500 for the first time this month and Economy Minister Caputo pushed for a law to penalize journalists over “unfounded” reports — a signal of a government feeling cornered into October’s midterms. (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmAM Best says Latin American P/C insurers are entering a softer market while earnings stay resilient, with Brazil, Chile, Peru and Uruguay carrying neutral segment outlooks on moderating inflation and easing rates. (Insurance Journal)
MexicoFitch continues to flag Mexico as the region’s lone outlier for 2026 — the only “deteriorating” insurance market on tax-reform pressure — against an otherwise steady LatAm landscape where Chile, Mexico and Panama hold stable outlooks and Brazil’s reinsurance outlook is negative. (Reinsurance News)
LatAmGlobal cat reinsurance pricing keeps softening, down roughly 15–20% at mid-year, and a five-quarter benign-loss streak is deepening the buyer-favourable tone that carries into LatAm renewals. (Reinsurance Business)
Political
BrazilMarkets stayed jittery over a US immigrant-visa hold and a money-laundering probe reaching the Supreme Court as the 4 October Lula-vs-Flávio Bolsonaro race heats up under the shadow of the 25% US tariff. (Rio Times)
ArgentinaCaputo’s demand for a law to punish journalists over “unfounded” reports chilled press-freedom sentiment and underscored a defensive government as the peso weakened toward October midterms. (Rio Times)
AndesThe region’s conservative supercycle (Milei, Kast, de la Espriella, Fujimori) holds as an anti-incumbency, security-first swing, with foreign interference a recurring campaign theme across the bloc. (Rio Times)
Regulatory
LatAmFIDES and Insuralex’s 2026 Latin America regulatory update tracks uneven convergence toward Solvency II and IFRS 17, with insurers facing rising internal-oversight and systems demands that raise cost without derailing growth. (Insuralex)
BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the Insurance Act (Law 15.040) via Resolution 494/2026, with the LRS insurance-linked-securities channel live and recent CNSP rules recasting reinsurance, coinsurance, FX and placement abroad. (Skadden)
MexicoCNSF continues to run its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime, with the 2026 tax reform the live capital-pressure point keeping Mexico Fitch’s sole “deteriorating” 2026 market. (Reinsurance News)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook keeps a developing, strengthening El Niño with over 90% odds of a very strong event for fall/winter 2026–27 and a 69% chance of the strongest event since 1950 (a +2.5°C or higher OND value) — an “off-the-charts” forecast. (StormBag/NOAA)
Central AmericaThe dominant El Niño pattern places drought across Central America, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and the Pantanal while pushing excess rain into the southern cone (southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, NE Argentina); the Panama Canal Authority is already tightening ship-weight limits to conserve fresh water. (Agrolatam, The Pig Site)
ColombiaCoffee output is expected to fall about 8% (to ~12.5m 60kg bags) as El Niño heat and reduced rainfall stress key growing zones, keeping global coffee stocks near historic lows. (Agrolatam)
CaribbeanEl Niño is depressing Atlantic hurricane activity (TSR/CSU/NOAA all below the 1991–2020 average; CSU cut further citing wind shear) and driving a redistribution of risk across re/insurance and ILS, with Florida-linked cat bonds pricing 15–20% below prior year; CCRIF’s parametric pool sits at US$1.57bn (up 9%) and untriggered YTD. (Artemis, Artemis)
ColombiaNo new nat cat event in the past 24h; the 10 August M7.4 Chocó earthquake (300+ dead, 4,600+ injured) still anchors regional loss discussion, with insurable exposure put at US$2–4bn but the industry hit likely in the low hundreds of millions on sub-5% penetration. (Wikipedia, ReliefWeb)
Coming Up
2 SepBrazilIBGE publishes Q2 2026 GDP, a read on whether the Selic-easing economy is holding up.
9 SepMexicoINEGI releases August CPI, testing whether headline stays near the 3% target.
10 SepLatAmNOAA CPC’s monthly ENSO diagnostic update (second Thursday), plus Brazil’s August IPCA.
16 SepBrazilCopom rate decision; Focus points to a cut to 13.75%.
30 SepColombiaBanRep board rate decision, with the 12.00% hawkish hold expected to persist.
On the Radar
LatAmA “super” El Niño intensifying into OND 2026 is the region’s defining risk: watch Central American / northern-Andes drought and Panama Canal draft restrictions feeding into agricultural (coffee, corn, sugar) and trade-disruption exposures even as Atlantic wind risk fades.
BrazilThe tight 4 October Lula-vs-Flávio race, framed by the 25% US tariff and a Supreme Court laundering probe, is the main political-risk swing factor for the real and Ibovespa into Q4.
ArgentinaWith the wholesale peso at 1,500 and the government leaning on press-restriction measures, FX and institutional-risk headlines could sharpen into the October midterms.