LatAm Daily Briefing — 28 August 2026

Macro

Argentinathe peso trades near record lows into the October midterms as the BCRA’s daily dollar purchases collapsed to ~US$33m in August (from ~US$103m in July) and country risk climbed to ~470bp, though the IMF still tags the disinflation (~33% annual) among the most successful stabilizations in memory. (Rio Times, PIIE)
Brazilthe latest Focus survey holds 2026 CPI at ~5.02% and trims 2026 growth to 1.95%, keeping a Selic cut to 13.75% on the table for the 15-16 Sept Copom after the 5 Aug reduction to 14.00%. (Rio Times, Rio Times)
MexicoBanxico stays parked at 6.50% with the easing cycle effectively done, the peso holding near a one-year high on a soft dollar while mid-month CPI runs around 3%. (Central Banking)
ColombiaBanRep remains the region’s hawkish outlier at 12.00% as 2026 inflation expectations sit near 6.6%, keeping real rates elevated versus regional peers. (Rio Times)

LatAmAM Best sees regional P/C insurers entering a softer market while earnings stay resilient, with Brazil, Chile, Peru and Uruguay on neutral outlooks. (Insurance Journal)
LatAmthe mid-year reinsurance renewal stays firmly buyer-favourable, with AM Best noting flat-renewal discounts of 5-30% across property, terrorism and health and ceding commissions up two-to-three points as capacity competes for cedent portfolios. (Insurance Business)
Colombiathe 10 Aug M7.4 Chocó earthquake continues to anchor LatAm insured-loss estimates across multiple lines, though the industry hit stays contained (low hundreds of millions) against an insurable base of US$2-4bn given the region’s thin penetration. (Reinsurance News)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric pool remains untriggered YTD at US$1.57bn (up 9%), and Jamaica praised strong investor support for its US$200m IBRD cat bond (25 investors, up from 15 in 2024) while planning further CCRIF expansion. (Artemis, Artemis)

Brazilthe presidential campaign opened 16 Aug into a tight 4 Oct Lula-vs-Flávio Bolsonaro contest, framed by the US tariff dispute and foreign-interference themes, with analysts casting Brazil as the wall against the region’s rightward run. (Latin Post)
LatAmthe conservative supercycle holds (Milei, Kast, de la Espriella, Fujimori) as voters across Honduras, Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Peru and Colombia have swung against incumbents in the sharpest realignment in two decades. (AS/COA)
ArgentinaMilei enters the October midterms with disinflation intact but a strained model, weak approval and thin reserves, leaving the peso and market sentiment sensitive to any policy misstep. (Americas Quarterly)

BrazilSUSEP continues bedding in the new Insurance Contract Act (Law 15.040) and its principle-based, economically-oriented solvency framework, with local ILS/LRS structures now live. (Chambers)
Mexicothe CNSF runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime and remains the region’s lone “deteriorating” 2026 insurance market on Fitch’s read, with the 2026 tax reform the live pressure point. (Skadden)
LatAmFIDES and Insuralex’s 2026 regulatory update tracks uneven Solvency II and IFRS 17 convergence across the region, with Argentina and Brazil flagged for frequent rule changes that raise compliance costs. (Insuralex)

LatAmNOAA/GFDL’s August experimental run has El Niño strengthening toward “Super” status, with a >90% chance of a very strong event peaking between October and January 2027 and unusually high forecast confidence. (GFDL/NOAA, NOAA CPC)
Andesthe dominant pattern loads excess rain onto the Pacific coast of Peru and Ecuador (flooding, landslides, fruit-export risk peaking Q4 2026-Q1 2027) while drying Central America, the northern Andes and the Brazilian Amazon; the southern cone (S Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, NE Argentina) sees the opposite wet signal. (Creand, WRI)
Caribbeanthe strengthening El Niño is expected to suppress the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, easing near-term wind exposure for Caribbean cedents even as CCRIF and cat-bond structures keep the region’s parametric backstop in place. (Fox Weather)
LatAmre/insurance implications skew toward drought/agri stress (corn, soy, coffee, sugar) in the dry belt and flood/parametric triggers on the Pacific coast; a benign Atlantic keeps cat-bond spreads under downward pressure though broader capital dynamics still drive pricing. (Artemis)
Venezuelarelief agencies are still deploying aid after recent earthquakes in western Venezuela; no fresh insured-loss estimate given the country’s very low penetration, and no new major LAC nat cat event in the past 24 hours (Atlantic basin quiet, TS Cristóbal no threat to land). (Direct Relief)

8 SepChileINE releases August CPI, a key input for the Central Bank of Chile after five holds at 4.50%.
9 SepMexicoINEGI publishes August CPI (standard 9th-of-month release), the next read on Banxico’s pause.
10 SepBrazilIBGE releases full-month August IPCA ahead of the Copom decision.
10 SepLatAmNOAA CPC issues its monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion (second Thursday), the next official read on the strengthening El Niño.
15-16 SepBrazilCopom decides on the Selic, with markets leaning toward a cut to 13.75%.

LatAmas El Niño accelerates toward a Super event, watch for early parametric/drought signals in the Central America and northern-Andes dry belt and Q4 flood build-up on the Peru/Ecuador coast; both feed agri and infrastructure claims well before headline losses print.
Brazilthe 4 Oct election, the 25% US tariff and a Selic-cut path make Brazilian FX and rates the region’s swing risk into September.
Argentinathin reserves and a record-low peso into the October midterms keep tail risk elevated; any confidence break would ripple through regional risk appetite and reinsurer sovereign exposure.