Macro
BrazilQ2 GDP and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI land today; economists expect a sharp quarterly slowdown that would reinforce the case for a 25bp Selic cut (to 13.75%) at the 15–16 Sept Copom, with the real hovering near 5.16–5.19/USD. (Rio Times)
MexicoBanxico stays parked at 6.50% with easing seen largely done; the peso softened to ~17.06/USD as a firmer dollar and rising US 10Y yields (4.72%) pressured the region ahead of today’s business-confidence and manufacturing PMI prints. (FXStreet, Rio Times)
LatAmDollar strength was the overnight anchor: gold fell ~3%, silver ~4%, and every major regional index bar Brazil’s Ibovespa (+0.30%, an eighth straight gain) declined, with Colombia (COLCAP −1.3%) and Peru (BVL −1.4%) hit hardest. (Rio Times)
ArgentinaThe peso sits near record lows (~1,512/USD) heading into October midterms; the Merval slipped 0.72%, underperforming Brazil despite peso stability, on lingering domestic uncertainty. (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmAM Best sees regional P/C insurers entering a softer but earnings-resilient market; mid-year reinsurance renewals stay buyer-favourable, with flat-renewal discounts of 5–30% depending on the line. (Insurance Business, Insurance Journal)
ColombiaThe 10 Aug M7.4 Chocó earthquake (331+ dead) continues to anchor LatAm insured losses, estimated in the low hundreds of millions against roughly US$2–4bn of insurable exposure. (Reinsurance News)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s parametric risk pool, grown 9% to US$1.57bn of coverage for the 2026 season, remains untriggered year-to-date as a below-normal Atlantic season unfolds. (Artemis)
BrazilThe Ibovespa’s eight-session winning streak (175,665) is testing whether resilient foreign flows can survive a firmer dollar and softer metals; Petrobras led B3 turnover at over R$2bn. (Rio Times)
Political
BrazilLate-August polls (Datafolha, PoderData) show Lula leading the first round by 3–6 points over Flávio Bolsonaro but a statistical tie in runoff scenarios; free TV and radio airtime opened 28 Aug ahead of the 4 Oct vote. (Rio Times)
BoliviaAuthorities jailed consultant Fernando Cerimedo, alleged to link President-elect Rodrigo Paz to Milei, Bolsonaro and Trumpworld networks, sharpening post-election tensions. (Rio Times)
LatAmThe regional rightward shift holds after conservative wins in Bolivia (Paz) and Chile (Kast); Ecuador is preparing joint military operations with Colombia and the US along their shared border. (Rio Times)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues embedding the new Insurance Act (Law 15.040) with local ILS/LRS structures now live, deepening the region’s insurance-linked securities market. (Insuralex)
MexicoCNSF runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime; Fitch still flags Mexico as the region’s lone ‘deteriorating’ 2026 market on tax-reform pressures. (Skadden)
LatAmThe FIDES/Insuralex 2026 regulatory update tracks uneven Solvency II and IFRS 17 convergence across the region’s prudential regimes. (Insuralex)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC reports El Niño is strengthening, with a greater-than-90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27; the next diagnostic discussion is due 10 Sept. (NOAA CPC, WUFT)
CaribbeanEl Niño wind shear is suppressing the Atlantic: NOAA’s updated outlook calls for a below-normal season (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes; 75% chance below normal), though a single Gulf-shifted landfall remains the tail risk. (NOAA, Moody’s)
PeruA dual water crisis persists: a 60-day emergency across 607 districts in 16 regions over pre-rainy-season shortage (Decree 116-2026-PCM), even as authorities flag 152 glacial lakes at high risk of bursting. (teleSUR, Rio Times)
ColombiaThe 10 Aug M7.4 Chocó quake remains the region’s material nat cat, with a 331+ death toll and US$2–4bn insurable exposure; no major new nat cat was reported across LAC in the past 24 hours. (CNN, OCHA)
LatAmRe/insurance implications: soft property-cat pricing and mainstreaming parametrics (CCRIF’s US$1.57bn pool, Mexico’s ~US$575m sovereign cover) leave the region’s ~81% climate protection gap exposed as El Niño tilts hazards toward E-Pacific flooding and Andean/Central American drought stress on corn, coffee and sugar. (Artemis, Insurance Business)
Coming Up
9 SeptMexicoINEGI publishes August CPI, testing whether disinflation holds near the 3% target after Banxico’s pause.
10 SeptBrazilIBGE releases August IPCA, the last major inflation read before the Copom decision.
10 SeptLatAmNOAA CPC issues its monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion (second Thursday), the next official El Niño update.
15–16 SeptBrazilCopom decides on the Selic, with markets pricing a 25bp cut to 13.75%.
4 OctBrazilFirst-round presidential election (Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro); runoff 25 Oct if no majority.
On the Radar
LatAmEl Niño intensification toward a potential “super” event: watch E-Pacific flooding risk in Peru and Ecuador, drought stress across Central America and NE Brazil on coffee/sugar/corn, and parametric-trigger sensitivity as a suppressed Atlantic peak passes.
AndesA firmer dollar and softer metals leave the Colombian, Chilean and Peruvian pesos most exposed to further risk-off; commodity-linked equities lagged again today.
BrazilA runoff that polls as a coin flip keeps the political risk premium elevated into October, with US-tariff and foreign-interference themes still in the mix.