Macro
BrazilQ2 GDP surprised strongly to the upside at +1.2% q/q (fourth straight positive quarter, +2.5% in H1), lifting activity 3.0% above its pre-pandemic peak and complicating the case for a September Selic cut. (IBGE)
Mexicothe peso held near 17.03/USD with Banxico parked at 6.50% (board signalling the easing cycle is essentially done), inflation cooling toward the 3% target; the IPC slipped 0.67% to 65,048, the mildest regional decliner. (Rio Times, Mexico News Daily)
LatAma firmer dollar leaves regional FX mixed; the real firmed to 5.184 with the Ibovespa up 1% (eighth-plus advance), while Andean currencies stayed on the back foot and Argentina’s peso hovered near record lows (~1,512) into the October midterm-free stretch. (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmH2 reinsurance stays firmly buyer-favourable: property-cat XL rates fell 15–20% at the 1 July renewal and parametric products keep gaining traction, with over-placement and rising ceding commissions the structural theme per Howden Re. (Artemis)
CaribbeanCCRIF SPC’s parametric pool sits 9% larger at US$1.57bn of coverage limits (39 members) and remains untriggered year-to-date ahead of the peak Atlantic season. (Artemis)
LatAmglobal insured cat losses ran ~US$42–46bn in H1’26, the lowest first-half tally since 2018 and ~28% below the 10-year average, reinforcing abundant reinsurance capacity into year-end. (Artemis/Gallagher Re, Swiss Re)
Political
Brazilthe 4 October first round is a coin-flip: a Quaest run-off simulation had Lula 43 vs Flávio Bolsonaro 40 (statistical tie), while Vox Brasil put the first round at Lula 37.1 vs Flávio 34.8, keeping political risk elevated into the vote. (Al Jazeera, Rio Times)
ArgentinaMilei governs from a strengthened hand after last October’s midterm landslide, but the peso near record lows and thin reserves keep the FX regime the key market watch-point. (Atlantic Council)
Regulatory
BrazilSUSEP continues to bed in the Insurance Act (Law 15.040) with local ILS/LRS structures live and the solvency-factor framework (17 business classes, 3 regions) in use, keeping Brazil the region’s most active reform market. (Skadden)
Mexicothe CNSF runs its Solvency II-equivalent LISF and remains an IAIS member; it stays the region’s lone “deteriorating” 2026 market on tax-reform pressure, even as the FIDES/Insuralex 2026 compendium tracks uneven Solvency II/IFRS 17 convergence across 20 markets. (Insuralex, Latin Lawyer)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC’s alert status is El Niño Advisory: the event is strengthening fast, with a >90% chance of a very strong episode (Niño-3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) through NH fall/winter 2026–27, peaking around OND. Weekly Niño-3.4 hit +2.7°C in mid-August with exceptional subsurface heat feeding further intensification. (NOAA CPC diagnostic, 13 Aug 2026)
Central Americathe dominant super-El Niño pattern skews toward drought across Central America’s Dry Corridor, the Caribbean, the northern Andes and the Brazilian Amazon/Pantanal, stressing maize, rice and coffee — Colombia’s coffee output is seen down ~8% in 2026. (WRI, Agrolatam)
Andesthe flip side is elevated rainfall/flood-and-landslide risk for coastal Peru and Ecuador (plus Bolivia) as the event matures — the classic super-El Niño signature that historically drives parametric excess-rainfall exposure. (Rio Times)
Caribbeanthe strengthening El Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity for the rest of the season (ACE ~40–45% of normal), a tailwind for cedants; CCRIF’s US$1.57bn pool remains untriggered, and no material new LAC nat cat event was reported in the past 24 hours. (Guy Carpenter, Artemis)
Coming Up
9 SepMexicoINEGI August CPI, the last inflation read before Banxico’s late-September call.
10 SepBrazilIBGE August IPCA, a key input to the 15–16 Sep Copom decision.
10 SepLatAmNOAA CPC monthly ENSO diagnostic update (2nd Thursday), watched for confirmation of a very-strong peak.
15–16 SepBrazilCopom rate decision; a 25bp cut to 13.75% is the base case but the hot Q2 GDP muddies it.
16–17 SepLatAmUS FOMC decision, the dominant near-term driver of regional FX and carry.
On the Radar
Brazilthe +1.2% Q2 GDP beat versus a ~0.4% consensus is a genuine hawkish surprise; watch whether Focus economists trim September-cut conviction and whether the real extends gains.
LatAmwith a very-strong El Niño now near-certain, watch for early cat-bond/parametric repricing on the drought (agri) and E-Pacific-flood legs even as Atlantic wind risk fades — the exposure is rotating, not disappearing.
Argentinapeso near record lows with thin reserves remains the region’s clearest tail-risk; any acceleration of BCRA dollar drain or country-risk widening would ripple across regional sentiment.