Macro
Brazil rides a high-carry story: the Selic sits near 14% against IPCA of ~5–6% (real yield ~8–9%, among the highest in EM), and the August services PMI is seen returning to expansion at 51.0 vs July’s 49.7, with the August trade balance due today. (Rio Times)
Mexico consumer confidence is expected to dip to 44.7 from 45.0 today, matching a resilient-but-slower regional pattern; Banxico remains parked at 6.50% with inflation near 3% and the peso firm at ~17.01–17.06 (about 8.6% stronger year-on-year). (Rio Times)
Colombia current-account gap widened to about US$6bn as the producer price index prints today, offering the next read on whether Andean inflation is easing enough for BanRep (12.00%) to cut further; COP holds near 3,140 (~22% firmer y/y). (Rio Times)
Argentina tax take rose 33.5% nominally but was flat in real terms, underscoring a grinding austerity as the peso sits near record lows (~1,493–1,511) into October midterms; only five provinces created net private jobs over three years. (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
Brazil the Ibovespa jumped 3.05% to 185,205 (+21.85% over 12 months) as a softer dollar (DXY 99.5) and gold’s rally supported EM risk; the real strengthened ~1.25% to 5.09. (Rio Times)
Brazil CSN named Fábio Schvartsman (ex-Vale) CEO as Benjamin Steinbruch steps down after running the steelmaker since 2002, a changing of the industrial guard amid sub-par factory output. (Reuters via WIN)
Caribbean CCRIF’s US$1.57bn parametric pool remains untriggered year-to-date, while Jamaica’s US$200m World Bank-facilitated IBRD CAR cat bond drew 25 global investors (up from 15 in 2024), its largest yet. (Artemis)
LatAm global H1 2026 insured natural-catastrophe losses ran ~US$42bn, below the ~US$66bn long-term trend, keeping H2 reinsurance renewals buyer-favourable even as the outlook stays elevated. (Swiss Re)
Political
Brazil Congress has until 8 September to vote on the “taxa das blusinhas” import measure or the tax on sub-US$50 packages returns, while Senate president Alcolumbre traded barbs over impeachment pressure on Justice Moraes ahead of the 4 October election. (Rio Times)
Mexico television producer Luis de Llano was arrested in Mexico City for repeatedly ignoring a court order tied to the Sasha Sokol abuse case — a rare enforcement against a prominent figure. (Rio Times)
Argentina President Milei snubbed the UIA’s Industry Day in a deliberate insult to industrialists, even as Argentine deputies travel to Brasília to thaw relations with Lula. (Rio Times)
Chile presidential candidate José Antonio Kast said he will not force Milei to derogate a decree on the Strait of Magallanes, citing treaties that establish Chilean sovereignty, keeping the old border nerve live. (Rio Times)
Regulatory
Brazil the CVM says it will launch AI-powered market surveillance this year, signalling the regulator is bracing for a more restless market. (Rio Times)
Brazil CNSP Resolution 494/2026 — recasting reinsurance, coinsurance, FX transactions and placement abroad — takes effect 2 January 2027, alongside the bedding-in of the new Insurance Act (Law 15.040). (DAC Beachcroft)
Mexico the CNSF continues to run its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime and remains the region’s lone “deteriorating” 2026 market per Fitch on tax-reform concerns. (Skadden)
LatAm the Fed funds range holds at 3.50–3.75% with futures pricing ~70% odds of a quarter-point hike at the 15–16 September meeting — a re-tightening risk that raises the bar for regional central banks. (Rio Times)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAm NOAA CPC maintains an El Niño Advisory with conditions strengthening toward a strong-to-very-strong 2026–27 event; the next monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is due 10 September. (NOAA CPC)
Peru has placed districts on El Niño emergency footing as forecasters warn of coastal flooding and landslide risk, with ports such as Callao and Guayaquil (Ecuador) exposed to shutdown during intense precipitation into early 2027. (Rio Times) (i4sea)
Colombia faces El Niño drought risk across the Andean and Caribbean regions where 90% of the population and main reservoirs sit, pressuring a hydro-dependent (65–70%) power matrix. (WRI)
Caribbean El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic activity; pre-season forecasts point to a near/below-average 2026 hurricane season, and CCRIF grew its coverage 9% to US$1.57bn ahead of it — still untriggered YTD. (Allianz) (Artemis)
LatAm no new major nat-cat event in the past 24 hours; soft-commodity prices moved on El Niño positioning, with coffee down 5.51% and sugar off 1.79% while corn jumped 10.02%. (Rio Times)
Coming Up
8 SepBrazilcongressional deadline to vote on the “taxa das blusinhas” import-tax measure before the sub-US$50 package tax returns.
10 SepLatAmNOAA CPC monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion update on El Niño strength and duration.
15 SepArgentinaAySA water-utility privatization bid deadline.
16 SepBrazilCopom rate decision (Day 2); a cut to 13.75% is eyed but muddied by strong Q2 GDP.
22 SepBrazilCopom meeting minutes released.
On the Radar
Brazil the 4 October election remains a coin-flip (Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro), and a Congress trading insults over a film and a minor import tax is a Congress unlikely to pass the reforms portfolios need — political noise is drowning out policy.
LatAm a strengthening super El Niño into 2026–27 concentrates risk in Andean flooding and Colombian/Central American drought; watch parametric triggers, hydro-power stress and agricultural claims even as the Atlantic stays quieter.
Mexico a proposed beer tax (up to +1 peso/bottle) and Pemex’s push to widen private investment signal a cash-strapped fiscal backdrop; the CNSF’s lone “deteriorating” rating keeps the insurance market under a watchful eye.