Macro
MexicoThe peso firmed to 16.9213/USD, a whisker from its 52-week best of 16.90, after Fed governor Waller eased rate-hike fears; Banxico stays parked at 6.50% (easing cycle done) with inflation near 3.9%. (Rio Times, Central Banking)
BrazilThe real held near 5.11/USD with the Selic at 14.00% delivering a real yield of ~8–9% (among the highest in EM), though the manufacturing PMI at 47.2 still signals contraction ahead of the 15–16 September Copom. (Rio Times)
ColombiaThe peso and COLCAP strengthened with the broader EM risk rally; BanRep holds a hawkish 12.00% as June inflation ran 6.14% and its end-2026 forecast was lifted to ~6.9%, partly on El Niño risk. (Rio Times, Rio Times)
LatAmThe dollar index slipped after Waller signalled rates can stay on hold if inflation keeps easing, lifting the peso and Chilean peso; today’s US jobs report (8:30am ET) is the key regional driver, with oil above $90 supporting exporters. (Rio Times)
Financial & Insurance Markets
LatAmCatastrophe-bond issuance hit a record US$17.3bn in H1 2026 as abundant ILS capital drove oversubscription and rate softening at renewals, per AM Best. (Global Reinsurance)
LatAmFitch sizes the Latin American reinsurance market at US$18–22bn and sees growing scope for cat bonds and ILS after Brazil’s first ILS deal, though currency volatility, inflation and cat claims remain key risks. (Artemis)
LatAmThe region’s reinsurance renewal continues to favour buyers as capacity outstrips demand by 25%+; parametric products have moved from niche to mainstream, per Aon. (Insurance Business)
CaribbeanCCRIF’s ~US$1.57bn parametric pool remains untriggered year-to-date; AM Best sees LatAm P/C insurers entering a softer market with earnings still resilient. (Artemis, Insurance Journal)
Political
VenezuelaIncreased US military operations in the Caribbean have intensified pressure on the Maduro regime amid a renewed anti-drug-trafficking push, leaving the country’s political situation in limbo and adding a regional growth overhang. (Atlantic Council)
ColombiaWashington has decertified Colombia as an antinarcotics ally amid a combative relationship with President Petro; ahead of the 2026 vote, Milei-style lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella is polling second on a tough-on-crime, cut-red-tape platform. (AS/COA)
ArgentinaMilei governs strengthened after his midterm boost, executing a libertarian agenda that has made Argentina the region’s most improved market — though a peso near record lows and thin reserves stay the key watch-point. (Foreign Affairs)
BrazilThe 4 October first round remains a coin-flip (Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro) under a 25% US tariff dispute, with political noise crowding out the reforms portfolios want to see. (Atlantic Council)
Regulatory
BrazilCNSP Resolution 494/2026 — recasting reinsurance, coinsurance, FX transactions and placement abroad — takes effect 2 January 2027, alongside the bedding-in of the Insurance Act (Law 15.040); SUSEP now has local ILS/LRS live. (Skadden)
MexicoThe CNSF continues to run its Solvency II-equivalent LISF regime and, as an IAIS member, remains the region’s lone “deteriorating” 2026 market per Fitch on tax-reform concerns. (Skadden)
LatAmThe Fed’s 15–16 September meeting is a live re-tightening risk for the region, though Waller’s dovish signal and today’s US jobs report will reset the odds and set the bar for regional central banks. (Rio Times)
El Niño / Climate & Nat Cat
LatAmNOAA CPC maintains an El Niño Advisory with the event strengthening and a greater-than-90% chance of a very strong episode during Northern Hemisphere fall–winter 2026–27; the next monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is due 10 September. (NOAA CPC)
AndesCoastal Peru and Ecuador face heightened flooding and landslide risk (ports such as Callao and Guayaquil exposed), while highland agriculture faces water stress; the Andean region’s GDP could contract 0.6–1.7pp in a strong El Niño scenario. (i4sea)
Central AmericaDrought is concentrating across Central America, the northern Andes, the Brazilian Amazon and the Pantanal; agriculturally, El Niño tends to cut Brazil’s coffee yields while favouring Argentine soy and corn. (WRI)
CaribbeanEl Niño’s wind shear is suppressing the Atlantic — NOAA gives a 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 season with ACE running ~40–45% of average — and CCRIF grew its pool 9% to ~US$1.57bn ahead of it, still untriggered YTD. (Colorado State, Artemis)
LatAmNo new major nat-cat event reported in the past 24 hours; the standing risk remains Andean flooding and Central American/Colombian drought into early 2027. (NOAA CPC)
Coming Up
8 SepBrazilcongressional deadline to vote on the “taxa das blusinhas” import-tax measure before the sub-US$50 package tax returns.
9 SepMexicoINEGI releases August consumer price inflation (standard monthly calendar).
10 SepLatAmNOAA CPC monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion update on El Niño strength and duration.
11 SepBrazilIBGE releases the August IPCA inflation print, a key input for the Copom decision.
16 SepBrazilCopom rate decision (Day 2); a cut from 14.00% is eyed but muddied by strong Q2 GDP.
On the Radar
LatAmA strengthening super El Niño into 2026–27 concentrates risk in Andean flooding and Colombian/Central American drought and hydro-power stress; watch parametric triggers, agricultural claims and soft-commodity moves (coffee, sugar, corn) even as the Atlantic stays quieter.
BrazilElection risk premium: with the 4 October first round a coin-flip and the Selic cut debate live into the 15–16 September Copom, expect FX and rates volatility to build through the month.
MexicoWith Banxico’s easing cycle done and the peso near a one-year high, the CNSF’s lone “deteriorating” rating and tax-reform concerns keep the insurance market under watch even as macro momentum holds.